Cold Spell (of depth and duration uncertain!) starting Tuesday 7th March

No signs of a resurgent return of the Atlantic conveyor belt in the medium term.

All 12z output points to a fairly unremarkable cold spell. The midweek low shifts further south which isn't unexpected as models initially tend to overegg lows when they come up against a block. The retreat west of the Greenland high into Canada is the death of any prospects of the cold spell lasting beyond Thursday/Friday.

So many factors need to be in place for widespread snow to fall in Ireland. Right now looking at the prospects, it's like working for hours on a 1000 piece Jigsaw knowing youre missing a couple of corner pieces. There will be more changes by this time tomorrow but the window for anything very wintry occuring is closing quickly.

Some of the models do still offer some snow next week. Let's wait and see what the ECM says. I think a milder turn is odds on though into the weekend, as WolfeEire said without something to hold the Greenland High in place over Greenland we are on borrowed time. The systems keep coming and inevitably the Iberian High wants to get a look in!

The ecm brings deeper cold in on Wednesday with minus 8s or lower across the country. With a Southeasterly wind it should be enough to kick off showers across the South Coast. I think I would favour getting in the proper cold over the marginal low being further North. Let's see where the rest of run goes

Ah well! It was fun while it lasted! It can stay dry now! No fecking cold rain!

A friend just showed me a picture of the snow he got five years ago. His back door was blocked from top to bottom due to a snow drift! I am gutted I was not here for that. I was not expecting anything like that this week of course, but a decent snow event would have been good!

I'm with you on your comment @Graces7 - I've been enjoying the weather of late, except the times it's been wet/drizzly, of course. So great to see the ground so dry in most parts.

I've lived through 50 years of Winters and I find the following odd

- No hurricane hitting land in 10 years+

- Sudden change in projected synoptics with little notice

I strongly believe weather modification is going on at a top secret level. For various reasons more so this year. I don't ever remember a Winter where high pressure just sat over us. 50 years is a long stat!!

Indeed. And let that be a very valuable lesson for new posters to the forum. If there is even a wee chance of snow chances evaporating, they will. Golden Rule: The Atlantic Ocean is king in terms of Irish winters - and that means dismal snow prospects......

D

Yeah I salute your enthusiasm but after being arid here a long time and being perched in the edge of the Atlantic I have seen enough busts from promising scenarios to be very wary until the snow is actually falling pretty much. In the end though that’s mostly what AB lot of us were going to see, snow falling but being too wet to stick and if it did, melting before anyone could freely enjoy it. Too late in the year now and ultimately we’re a snag island surrounded by a relatively warm ocean. That’s never a good start. March 2018 is one of those delightful outliers and just shows that we know what to expect 99.9% of the time but it’s that 0.1% that covers along and surprises you. Never say never of course but I don’t expect to see a significant snowfall like 2018 at this point of March in the rest of my lifetime.

Lol classic . Yer man from Clonmel aswel

I am just back from a walk. The breeze is cold but there's now real warmth from the sun. Any snow won't last long unless it stays cloudy

A lot of pinches of salt are needed for this spell because while that accumulated snow chart looks like the country is covered it is really the amount of snow that falls from the sky. e.g 3cm of snow could fall over the course of a couple of days and none lie which is likely in March.

Ulster will probably have some lying snow but anywhere else extremely borderline. The deep cold always stays North of us on the ECM but reaches Ulster for a time. Probably 4 to 6c for the rest of the country most of the week. Might be ice at night and some snow then.

Well we have an aul ice warning anyway

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1632371703614414848?s=20

Urban radiation retention. Its much colder not very far up, so snow will make it to ground, but not stick.

London will become proper cold the next few days, though snowfall is uncertain.

The snow and graupel showers drifting on to the east coast later on Monday night could lead to a light covering with Dublin/Wicklow most likely. As regards beyond we are really looking at frontal snow events when the Atlantic systems bump up against the cold air. Difficult to forecast with accuracy but at the very least transitionary snowfall is very likely but we'll have to see how the forecasts play out.

For now, I'd focus on Monday night for eastern coastal counties.

ICON 12z sees a snow/sleet to rain event on Wednesday with much milder temps over the southern two thirds of the country by the end of the day. For the next 7 days thereafter, a cold airmass sits just to the north of Ireland. Northern Scotland holds on to winter throughout. High pressure to our south acts as the bouncer and no cold is getting in 🤚

heavy frontal snow from thursday afternoon across the middle of the country on the latest gfs, BANK, only 99 hours away,what could go wrong.

Some places are going to get a good bit of snow this week from these frontal zones. Narrow margins between the haves and have nots.