Cold Spell (of depth and duration uncertain!) starting Tuesday 7th March

I was referring more towards frontal snow from the Atlantic. I disagree that Dublin often gets snow, a few parts can get lucky such as Portmarnock a few years ago and south Dublin earlier in December. Much of Dublin county has not seen anything more than a dusting or 2 since 2018 with south Dublin having a bit of extra luck compared to North Dublin. I did not hear any reports of snow in Dublin this morning or anytime today as it was largely sunny.

Just my thoughts :Going through the charts tonight and kinda thinking the ECM is a bit of an outlier, rowed back a bit too quick on snow totals and accumulation of precipitation in general . GFS is near perfect with the track of the LP and cold quickly getting drawn in behind as it transits the country.

ARPEGE showing very cold 850hPa temps and to note it is showing some very high precipitation totals falling in various states, heaviest in Munster and would have to think much of it falling as sleet and perhaps more so as snow inland giving some big accumulations down to sea level. Can see the projected temps staying close to 0C during the snow fall. This run would keep the heaviest falls to Munster, Connaught and Leinster but also getting substantial falls in the N and NE.

To note tight gradient giving some strong winds also for a time especially in the SW, maybe getting up to warning level and giving some savage Windchill.

So could get some driving snow conditions across the country Thurs evening.

Skies set to clear once the weather goes through later Thurs night/ early Fri Morning so preserving much of the snow till morning, temps set to go up to 5 or 6C on Fri so a thaw would set in would think (maybe snow remaining until Sat on hilly terrain and probably some where there was big falls) before freezing again Fri night/ Sat morning.

ARPEGE at odds with the GFS where and how much precipitation is going to fall. ECM 18Z out later will see if it rows back a bit.

WRF a good chart nearer the event.

Not as heavy precipitation as ARPEGE, not as strong winds but still quite windy especially in the E, SE later.

Showing some very cold temperatures over where it is predicting the heaviest snow fields I would imagine.

A bit to go yet with the models for more accuracy at this late stage. Could be some big accumulations into Fri morning I would think. Models should hopefully give a better idea tomorrow where will get the heaviest snowfall. All in all a fairly big event from early Thurs morning until late Thurs night / early Fri morning.