Tesla Talk

A week Tuesday apparantly……

I think Musk has learned not to over promise and to stop the Osbourne effect to cannibalise the current lineup. All the future car related questions were just ignored, and actually actively not answered. Just the 50% cost reduction in production costs was mentioned. The van question was also dodged.

One interesting bit was that they are not planning to create sub or should I say sister models of any car. Elon said that he's not interested in models with "cosmetic" differences.

I haven't been following the company details that much and although I knew about the energy business side of things it was great to see how big plans they have. I though it really showed the depth of the company, i.e. the capability of vertical integration down to the component level and the numbers for the green economy transfer was very interesting too. It was almost if the hype was for once replaced with proper analysis and long term planning.

It was not a quick fix to hit all the expected long hanging fruits but to show how much care has gone in planning the road to 20 million vehicles and 1 TwH of battery storage manufactured per year.

I feel quite happy now that my shares will lead in some proper returns and I have the faith to hold on to them now. I also think that this quarter's results next month will be good and help TSLA on the market. That will be time for boasting about the long hanging fruit.

SP dipped simply because this was an investor day that offered nothing of substance that would drive shareholder value, and instead went very thick and heavy on (yet more) mission and vision - all of which is in the distant future.

the SP trades around 55x today - it’s got all the vision stuff already baked in, and there’s nothing new from IR day. Factor in the price cuts, no new models announced to replace the 2 aging models that drive all revenue, and compounded by announcing more factory’s, and it’s all just a vision still.

The biggest threat to Tesla’s SP is mean reversion, as the vision slips further into the future.

You on the sherry sk8board?

That's brave 😁

I agree largely with your point. Would love to see Lucid become a big success at the top end of the market. Have you sat in a recent Model S though? They've come a long way since the shabby interiors from the early Model S we both had as our first Teslas. Even the early facelift models from near 7 years ago are a world better in every way. You wouldn't think it's even the same car.

Which would depreciate quicker a 2018 Model S 75 or a brand new Model Y RWD over the next 4 years, assuming both €47K and the model S has average mileage.

Also which would be easier to sell in 4 years time?

Model Y will be easier to sell imo. Hard to say which will depreciate more.

A second hand 5 year old Model S is a very hard sell already in Ireland, even if well priced at €47k. Trust me, I have been following every Model S for sale in the country since mid October of last year. This is even true for cars sold by garages, who offer warranty. They don't seem to have any edge over private sellers here at all

You are basically asking the same question that could have been asked 10-20 years ago. Which car will depreciate more over the next 4 years, a 5 year old BMW 735i or a brand new BMW 320d of the same value. Same answer. But of course with the Teslas, the total cost of onwership of the Model S is only a tiny bit higher than that of the Model Y. Where the total cost of ownership of the 7-series was way, way higher than the 3-series because of the extra cost of motor tax and fuel alone

Do ask yourself though, what car would you rather be in over the next 4 years 😀

Ultimately, yes, @celtic_oz, a price drop would eventually attract a buyer. A lot of the Model S for sale currently are from owners who have ordered a Model Y. Some are very keen to get their new car and have kept dropping their price. And dealers have had to drop their price too. It's a downward spiral. A race to the bottom of who is keenest to get their shiny new car (and is willing to accept the least for their old car)

There's even a Model S for sale with an asking price of just €25.5k. I doubt the seller would refuse an offer of €24k. Which is pretty mad as the second hand battery modules in that car alone are worth about $17k on eBay