Reflection on the pandemic: questions about the authorities' response.

"Nil pointer"? I think that sums up your last few posts alright - unable to challenge the substance of the points made.

The objections and criticisms to the dodgy Swedish data stand.

England tried something like Sweden's strategy, and had to abandon it as their hospitals started to fill up. We got blowback from that failure via Cheltenham. So we have another European country that exposes the shortcomings of Sweden's strategy.

As for: "A lie?"

That's a very specific accusation and requires justification. It implies that governments and health authorities across Europe knew the restrictions weren't needed to save lives and protect hospital capacity, but brought them in any way, either for some nefarious purpose or "to be seen to do something".

You provide no evidence to support that claim just the usual slogan bingo of 'hysteria' and 'gaslighting'. And if we look at the timelines of restrictions being brought in here, and the interactions between the Irish government and NPHET, I see no evidence the response "was primarily driven by social media hysteria." If we look at China, it is the most immune regime in the world to media pressure full stop, it brought in lockdowns and restrictions. Yet somehow Sweden alone of advanced nations was immune to this 'social media hysteria' and saw through this 'lie', for reasons that are never explained.

Governments around the world reacted as they did to what they were seeing in their hospitals and to what their health authority experts were telling them.

Governments brought in restrictions because of a sincere belief they were needed to save lives and protect hospital capacity.

Interesting interview with Isabel Oakeshott who leaked Matt Hancock’s messages as she claims herself in public interest.

Thank God we have had a very solid governance and transparency in place for NPHET and the government, so that things like what she speaks about did not happen in Ireland.

Lol.

Great to see the Swedes taking a critical look in how their own country dealt with the pandemic and pointing out the flaws of their approach. If anything it shows that they have a healthy system that does not ostracise and shunt the dissenting voices. That is how it is done and no public enquiry is required. Credit to them once again. Mistakes were made and they are not afraid to bring them up to the surface and learn from them.

I’m waiting impatiently for the equivalent studies on the other great democracies such as UK, US, Australia and Ireland to come through. When we can expect them? Does anybody know?

I hope that these studies will also include the examples of how governments and their behavioural science advisors supported by the media have ratcheted the fear and played on people’s emotions to make sure they felt sufficiently threatened to comply with lockdown policies and how they used persuasive messages prepared by ‘nudge units’ to drive the uptake of vaccines.

This is the next thing that is coming up to the surface and mark my words here, there will be plenty of reasons for people around the world and in Ireland to be up in arms, and rightly so.

So for now let’s reserve the judgement on whose approach was just, ethical and moral.

A critique I would have of that paper is that all references to excess deaths seem to come from year 2020. However any worthwhile evaluation of excess deaths must cover a much longer period. This is because deaths that may have been due to the lockdowns and restrictions themselves are likely to be delayed possibly several years. It may still be too early to fully evaluate excess deaths due to the response to Covid.

The UK population is increasing and aging. How many all time highs have they hit in the decade 2010-2019?

Your premise is doubtful on multiple levels.

Did health authorities have such an inaccurate view of the virus? For how long?

Why would so many major health authorities in different parts of the world continue with such a view even as they could start to form their own assessment from what they were seeing in their test centres and hospitals?

It was a numbers game, which is based on infectiousness multiplied by severity, on how many cases they were seeing requiring hospital attention.

Also the infectiousness of the virus factored into decisions about hospital services capacity with regard to infection control measures.

Definitely more drinking at home alright but whether to excessas you say in the UK ,jury is out .

"Data released by the Revenue on alcohol excise receipts and volumes shows that recorded consumption in Ireland for beer, cider and spirits decreased significantly in 2020 and 2021 compared to 2019 but are expected to rise again in 2022. Notably, wine consumption significantly rose in 2020 but reduced in 2021 below the 2019 figures. Wine consumption appears to be rising again in 2022 compared to 2021. (Revenue data of Q4, 2022, not available as of February 10th 2023)."

However consumption of alcohol has been known to be above that of our European counterparts . In Europe the average per capita is 5.8 litres , whereas pre Covid Ireland's alcohol consumed oer capita over 15 years of age was over 10 litres .

Alcohol consumed did reduce in Ireland over the pandemic years .

"The OECD Report Health at a Glance: Europe 2022: State of Health in the EU (European Union) Cycle provides further international comparisons on alcohol consumption. In Ireland, the overall alcohol consumption among adults in 2021 was 9.5 litres of alcohol. This is a decrease from 10.1 litres in 2020, 10.8 litres in 2019 and 11 litres in 2018. The OECD average recorded per capita consumption in Europe is 9.8 litres per adult."

There is a very strong link between alcohol and cancer that has been known and studied for years .

It it remains to be seen if a reduction in alcohol consumed during Covid years from the high level in previous years in this country helps mitigate mortality both from Alcohol related illness like liver cirrhosis and oesophageal cancer , and other cancers that have been strongly linked to consumption.

Interestingly while drinking habits shifted from pubs and clubs to home in countries during the pandemic , Irish people did 62% more drinking at home than outside the home BEFORE the pandemic years so maybe were less affected by that shift than we would think .

The reduction in screening during pandemic years will most likely lead to a higher pick up rate immediately since screening has resumed , but whether that increase will be due to an accumulation or not will take a few years of collecting data to become clear.

Some excellent links in the drinkaware review to data worldwide if anyone interested .

Absolutely . It is very vague to use excess deaths when comparing restrictions as there are so many different reasons why any particular country may have more or less in a prior year , as seen with the WHO data .

The only thing that we can say for definite are the amount of deaths from Covid , which is what that study refers to, between Norway and Sweden in 2020 . And that is why I quoted it .

I don't think it is vague to use excess deaths. They are probably the better measure than say covid-deaths alone. The problem comes if you limit the timescale to the time of the outbreak itself since what we are trying to weigh up is not only the cost of Covid itself but the cost of lockdowns and restrictions used against it. As I said, the cost of these may take years after the initial outbreak to assess.

That's one group here who did not direct actual policy. And we did not go down the zero covid route. This is a miles away from proof of eradication as the basis in the listed countries over the course of the pandemic. If anything it is proof of the opposite.

It was explicitly rejected by government and NPHET

https://www.breakingnews.ie/amp/ireland/explainer-could-ireland-become-a-zero-covid-island-1074034.html

Unfortunately there is nothing entertaining about this show. The people doing the gaslighting now were the same people cheerleading the removal of freedoms during the pandemic, and are the same people who will be playing their little games during the next social media crisis.

The problem is that the media and in turn the government take their lead from these sorts. Government is a reflection of society after all, and that means that these behaviours will be seen again and we will suffer the consequences again.

Those who don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it. Which explains why certain people argued so strongly against an independent and public review of the pandemic response.

That . Is. Not at all what you said in the post I replied to .

You talked about excess deaths when the study I posted was about covid deaths in one particular year . You said it was too early to assess excess deaths in your next post. I agreed as my post was about " covid deaths in 2020 " . This is the year the lack of restrictions in Sweden is interesting because of the differences between it and Norway . Then you come back with the post above ..which is true generally , but not in reference to what we were talking about . In this particular instance Covid deaths are more to the point than excess deaths . They are the reason they applied restrictions after all in the following year and that is why their excess deaths overall were better .

That is my point.

On reading your posts you are not replying to the point we were talking about but going off in another direction. Bit of a waste of my time discussing this further . I just can't be bothered trying to anticipate which goalpost is going to be moved next tbh, so I think I'll be leaving this here .

Sorry to hear. Hope you are ok.

Have never thought that screening should have been paused beyond the first lockdown.

Was showing studies that show that alcohol has a major link with cancer known since before the pandemic. However alcohol consumption has decreased during the pandemic years although still higher than European counterparts.

Cancer deaths in Ireland are attributable to more than paused screening but there would be an inevitable boost in numbers diagnosed after screening gains momentum following the pandemic.

Delays in diagnosis and treatment because of Covid, not lockdown, is still ongoing with services running to catch up.

Have personal experience of this so am aware of the worry and stress involved.

Did Sweden have deaths from shutting hospitals that first year ?

Because I thought that that was the point , they didn't ...shut the hospitals that is , just under pressure 🤔

(Thinking of that gif with the goalposts being moved all over the pitch now !)

I don't think we are on the same page , but that's ok .

That would cause an increase maybe in general deaths .