Bank of Ireland shares

UB and KBC leaving?

Rising ECB rates meaning rising net interest margins?

Reaching 10.50 nowadays ,how long more is left in this rally is the question .Swings of 10 cent are worth 1k to me so not for the faint hearted when the tide turns .Interest rate rises seem to be in the best interest of the irish banks with a couple more interest rises on the horizon so the sun is still shining on this share

Guess this broke past my 10 target........if ECB rate is heading towards 4%......its not inconceivable that BOI could generate €3bn in net income in that environment.......today it has a market cap of €11bn......thats a P/E under 4........if you ascribe, as I do, do the thesis around a departure from ZIRP......its not inconceivable to see ECB rates never return to zero....and more likely average 2.x%......in that environment BOI's longer run earnings power is likely in mid-2 billion range.

Banks post-GFC are more like utilities......much much safer........and less profitable in terms of RoE.....this robustness however deserves a higher multiple on earnings as the common shareholder is much less likely to be diluted ala GFC........I would pay x12-x13 times cyclically adjusted earnings for these types of banks.

You take what Ive said.........and instead of Bank of Ireland trading at €10 euro a share............you are likely looking at something close to €20 per share..........if share buybacks form a more prominent method of shareholder return.....this could be much much higher over a five year time frame

The ECB deposit rate was 2.00% at end 2022, is 2.5% now, and will be 3% soon.

It looks like NII will rise by hundreds of millions???

That would require the collusion of auditors, and they might not be so amenable these days as in the past.

"The refined definition of material is as follows: “Information is material if omitting, misstating or obscuring it could reasonably be expected to influence decisions that the primary users of general purpose financial statements make on the basis of those financial statements, which provide financial information about a specific reporting entity.” The main changes are embodied in the references to “obscuring”, “could reasonably be expected to” and “primary users”."

Auditors and bank regulators live to enforce lax loan loss provisioning…….being ‘prudent’ by modeling extreme adverse scenarios in your risk models and taking a large loan loss provision on your balance sheet…….never got any banker in trouble with his auditor……trouble with shareholders/analysts maybe……..but never auditors/regulators. What are they gonna put a CEO of risky credit institution in prison for being TOO cautious with how they run their banks balance sheet.

Net interest income

2019 = 2,167m

2020 = 2,115m

2021 = 2,219m

2022 H1 = 1,072m

The full 2022 results will be published soon, 07.03.2023

Net interest income

2019 = 2,167m

2020 = 2,115m

2021 = 2,219m

2022 = 2,482m

It didn't go up as much as I expected, based on what @bankboucy was saying.

EDIT: expected to be 3bn in 2023.

I know, yes.

Other income is up 22%, great.

Total income up 10%.

Op profits up 15%.

Always thought I'd sell if it got near this price but now tempted to hold on for dividends etc.

It's made up for a bad 2022. Nearly hitting 11euro today

Not necessarily. This scare is far from over. You have to remember the way the senate and Congress is split in the US.

I think we may only seeing the tip of the iceberg at present.

Yes it seems so cannot get on to it.

I agree very specific reasons and as European banks had a lot of their excess liquidity parked at the ECB on call attracting a variable rate it shouldn’t impact. But saying that once depositors loose faith in the banking sector anything can happen as herd mentality takes over and even a healthy bank can experience a run….it could all start by shorting a bank stock which gives it attention and a few hours later it had run out of cash because of a false rumour

You never know what is round the corner with shares. All very quiet for a while, with BOI making steady gains. We avoided the damaging headlines, when wiser heads prevailed and they did not do a fraud on the profit figures. "Share price plummets as BOI reveals massive increase in bad loans" (I made that up based on previous posts).

Then on Sunday 12 March RTE reported on a scheme to give the top brass big allocations of shares, instead of bonuses. Some bad publicity there. And this bank collapse in America appeared out of nowhere to muddy the waters.

I suppose the one constant for most shareholders is that they don't mind what a business gets up to, as long as the shares are going up.

The important information in the boi financial statements relating to the issues seen with svb