Which party will benefit most from the Chinese and Russians interfering in the next GE here?

Calahonda52 · 07-03-2023 3:06pm #1

That it will happen is undoubted, hence the question.

The other question is:

Which party will assist / actively engage most with the Chinese and Russians interfering in the next GE here?

Peadar/Paul/Holly/Mary?

Nody · 07-03-2023 3:57pm

Fringe parties on both sides; they are most inclined to be anti EU/USA and more likely to believe "alternative facts" and go down the rabbit holes. If they become influencal enough (UKIP) they can help steer the main parties in the desired direction.

Sam Russell · 07-03-2023 4:59pm

Where did the retirement age come from to be a live and very active issue in the last election? Prior to the election being called it was a done deal because of the pension time bomb.

Was it some interference from a cellar in St Petersburg?

fly_agaric · 08-03-2023 7:55pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058287236/which-party-will-benefit-most-from-the-chinese-and-russians-interfering-in-the-next-ge-here

On second question would imagine it would be "no party" - independents of all types (left wing, nationalist, right wing, "rural"). They need money to fund their elections etc., so being cynical might be more likely to engage.

China and Russia have lots of it. IMO they search for political weirdos to fund, so they can corrupt and co-opt countries from the inside without firing a shot if they get lucky, and some of the manchurian candidates manage to attain positions of power.

Calahonda52 · 09-03-2023 7:23pm

Are SF not anti EU at heart, especially since we are now net contributors and the plan it to take a United Ireland out of the EU?

Brussels Sprout · 13-03-2023 6:32pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120336684#Comment_120336684

15-20 years ago certainly they would have been. They opposed practically all of the various EU treaty referenda as far as I recall. They basically would have had the PBP/Corbyn attitude to the EU where they warned of creeping federalism and worried about things like an EU army.

They've been on a bit of a journey since then though. The face of the party has changed and they've taken in a lot of younger members and it's gradually moved towards the centre from where it was back then. The best thing that ever happened the EU in the eyes of Sinn Fein and many other formerly Euro-skeptic parties around Europe was witnessing the shambles of Brexit. That's where all the theories and dreams of "freedom" died a death after seeing the harsh reality of what that meant. Also with the DUP being anti-EU that makes SF contractually obliged to support it.

timmyntc · 13-03-2023 6:40pm

The successes of whatever party I don't like is due to election interference, the failures of the party I do like is also due to election interference.

fly_agaric · 13-03-2023 6:55pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120336684#Comment_120336684

I am not sure if Ireland contributing to the budget has anything to do with it at all, it is or was ideological IMO + at core they have been (in the past anyway) opposed to the idea of Irish membership of the EU itself and what it represents. (Even though they are left wing), similar to nationalists in UK and elsewhere all around Europe, they believed it takes away power from Ireland.

However the party has been expanding over past decade or so and becoming more mainstream. That sort of pure nationalist Euroscepticism is not and has never been a very popular opinion in Ireland. It is quite fringe/oddball. I think Brexit may have taught them quite a sharp lesson as well illustrating that sometimes it is nice to have allies at your back vs "ourselves alone" against the rest all the time and being a member of the EU (+ therefore inside the tent pissing out) is a part of that.

On the surface SF have changed, but I think the instincts are still quite anti-EU + suspicious of moves towards more integration. They won't be "taking us out" but one can expect they will probably oppose the next EU treaty change whenever that comes (they have opposed them all before now, they will find some reason...esp. if there's anything new about collective security and defence in it, which could be likely).

growleaves · 13-03-2023 7:12pm

I doubt anyone would be stupid enough to accept money from Russia and China now that it looks like we may be on the eve of World War III.

There are people practically salivating at the prospect of betraying others with accusations of being pro-Russian traitors.

Incidentially in the past it was the Workers Party who took Soviet money

https://irishelectionliterature.com/2010/07/08/1986-letter-from-the-workers-party-to-the-communist-party-of-the-soviet-union-cpsu-looking-for-funds/

I seem to recall Democratic Left (which folded into Labour) also had Comintern ties in the 80s(?) but I don't have a link for that.

Danzy · 14-03-2023 12:29am

I can't see Russia or China bothering too much with here but they'll focus on the Left parties where there is a ideological bond and comprise other individuals or parties who just want a cheque if possible.

Hodors Appletart · 15-03-2023 9:06am

Mick and Clare

CalamariFritti · 15-03-2023 9:27am

There will be Russian and/or Chinese interfering in the next election? And that’s a given?

As in a couple hundred paid ‘influencers’ typing social media ‘misinformation’ or something?

i don’t know I feel we’re almost getting paranoid now about China and Russia. Like everything that goes bad they must have had their hand in it. I think this a big stretch. Why would they bother?

ilkhanid · 15-03-2023 11:12pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120354570#Comment_120354570

SF lost their attraction for the Russians when Mary Lou condemned the invasion and called for Filatov's expulsion. I'd say they'd be active on behalf of PBP on the Left and The National Party on the Right but the prospects of those parties, especially the NP and it's even smaller and more irrelevant extreme Right companions attaining any position of influence are negligible. And, no, they don't have any ideological bond with parties on the Left. Their instincts are far more compatible with the far Right.

Brussels Sprout · 16-03-2023 12:07am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120364202#Comment_120364202

Which is always why it is so baffling and frustrating when far-left people regurgitate obvious pro-Kremlin propaganda in an effort to pin the blame on anybody but Putin for the invasion.

It's like "Jesus Christ - You have 'Anti-Fascist' in your bio and you're giving the biggest fascist in the World a pass every single time"

On that note I suspect that the Irish Republican Socialist Party may have been in receipt of payments from Russian Groups. Probably indirectly but they've even been over to the Donbass to hang out with the separatists (pre-2022). Here's some of their typical fare, straight out of the mouth of Putin's propagandists:

https://twitter.com/DublinIrsp/status/1629501137089880065

That's literally the DNR flag that they are flying - Unbelievable!

Larbre34 · 17-03-2023 1:57am

Call me naive, but I respect the discerning nature of the Irish electorate to make up their minds based on the direct words and deeds of the people and parties standing for election, not a social media misrepresentation of it.

Besides, PRSTV evens out any anomaly that might be caused by distorted local voting patterns. Foreign election interference is a real and present danger, but I don't see us being as exposed to it as other States.

Nody · 17-03-2023 12:36pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120368428#Comment_120368428

Sorry but I'd call you naive even if we ignore any social media influence; voters are sadly not that discerning or focused (and not only in Ireland mind you). I'd agree that Ireland is harder to influence due to PRSTV and requirements for information for referendums etc. but I'd not put the voters on that high of a pedestal as you do; they can definitly be influenced but the influence will have less effect than let's say UK.

CalamariFritti · 17-03-2023 1:07pm

Everybody can be influenced. Including you and me.

There are probably people who ask google who to vote for. Or chatGPT. Or in a less direct way Twitter. Whoever controls what these things say has immense power in their hands. When Musk 'revealed' that those applications have levers built into them which can control/steer what bubbles up or down I was not the least bit surprised.

blanch152 · 29-03-2023 4:02pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120354570#Comment_120354570

You are indeed correct. Sinn Fein's Pauline conversion to loving the EU is a direct result of opposing whatever themums were for.

It would be interesting to see SF's policy position in any future EU referendum.

Going back to the thread title, Chinese and Russian interference will be aimed at destabilisation. They won't favour the current three government parties as a result. Which of the opposition parties will benefit? Least likely Labour, most likely PBP and then Sinn Fein. Independents are a curious one, they tend to lead to unstable governments the more independents there are. Will be watching out for signs.

blanch152 · 29-03-2023 4:06pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120364202#Comment_120364202

Russia will recognise the political realities that SF had to adjust to. No point being a friend of Russia if you are back down on 10% having supported the invasion of Ukraine. The question is whether back channel communication was maintained.

BoxcarWilliam99 · 04-04-2023 11:58pm

Fine Gael . They have a fascist roots. It's quite possible

Which party will benefit most from the Chinese and Russians interfering in the next GE here?

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