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A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,956 ✭✭✭circadian


    I can't understand why banks thought low interest long term bonds were a good idea for storing depositors cash. At a time when interest rates were at a record low and inflation was always inevitable.



  • Registered Users Posts: 949 ✭✭✭Ozark707



    If the market is forming the opinion that a recession is coming then demand will reduce.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Finger of blame must also be pointed at regulators. So many changes/restrictions on how capital is calculated over the past decade, and now it seems they were sleeping on liquidity?



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,018 ✭✭✭Jonnyc135


    And when Inflation did come, the chief fiancial gurus in the ECB and the Fed told them it was transitory and rates would not have to go up. The centra bankers really have been a major part of this too.

    Piss poor judgement and governance from both the banks in question and the major Western central banks.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    "but there will be EU funds to help countries and major financiers such as the Eurpean Investment Bank and European Central bank are ready and willing to lend - in some cases at negative interest rates - to governments who can pass it on to householders."

    This section suggests to me that government grants will be available to bring your house up to standard. And/or a form of interest free government loan could be arranged.

    I'm not seeing the bank bailout so far.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 17,981 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Not really. Some people are in a position to better understand and interpret this than others. I know that for a fact.

    Again, am not referring to crystal ball stuff. No one can predict what's going to happen next, but some can certainly better understand what's happening vs what isn't.



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,099 ✭✭✭✭rob316


    This has been inevitable to be honest, you have your head in the sand if you didn't think so many deposits were in low interest bonds.

    The deniers are as bad as the doom mongers, because you got a 10% pay rise, assets prices are high and unemployment is historically low, everything is "fine"

    It is always fine before the house falls and all the regulators and government heads will tell you its fine. Bush just like biden stood up there and said the financial system was safe.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    1. It says it in the article you posted.

    2. No one is forcing you to do anything.

    Honestly, you're just wildly speculating at this point and I have zero interest in such discussions, regardless of the topic.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,326 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    Unless you're posting from your yacht in the med you're not "some people".

    So again I'd say get off your high horse and instead of trolling the "doomsdayers" post some actual insight if you have any from your ops role in credit Suisse.



  • Registered Users Posts: 827 ✭✭✭farmingquestion


    Maybe certain users can set up their own thread called "A global recession is not on the horizon" and talk to themselves there?

    Shock horror, thread predicting global recession has content predicting global recession!



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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,048 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    And yet you are consistently posting here dismissively as if any bad news is simply scaremongering, before the extent of damage has fully been realised.

    This latest banking scare has only just begun, it can go a lot further depending on how the regulatory authorities (and markets) react.

    If managed poorly this could have disastrous impacts for worldwide finance (again)



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,625 ✭✭✭brickster69


    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,981 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Nope, I'm dismissing the over-the-top hysteria and alarmism. There's been plenty of bad news since last year.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    "over-the-top hysteria"

    I know what you mean. I suppose it's a consequence of the forum this thread is located in.



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,480 ✭✭✭✭bucketybuck


    Plenty of lads like you around in 2007 as well.

    "Its just a gully".



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,099 ✭✭✭✭rob316


    Remember 2008 when the rating agencies were rating toxic loans as AAA rated?



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,148 ✭✭✭screamer


    It seems that banking is the best “risk” investors ever took. With our far too connected world, one bank failing sets off a chain reaction. Governments scramble to prevent contagion with huge pressure from the high rollers to not burn them, just like what happened here in 08. So, why do they grant banking licences at all? It seems that banks are the Wild West and nothing changes?



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,981 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    For the last 10 years every single financial ripple and issue and world event and problem gets forecasted as 2007.

    It's important to look at these situations objectively. Could this current issue get worse? Sure. Could it evolve? Sure. Could it also dissipate? Sure.

    Based on the situation with CS today I wouldn't be surprised to see it get worse before it gets better. Note: worse doesn't mean end of the world. If it chills over the weekend, then we could see e.g. an APAC bank or two flare up. The main damager as always is fear/nerves/panic.



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,071 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    And remember why the ratings agencies rated toxic loan securities and the houses that held them as AAA rated?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,625 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Derivatives again you see lads. Warren Buffert warned years ago about them when he said " In my view, derivatives are financial weapons of mass destruction, carrying dangers that, while now latent, are potentially lethal."

    Can you imagine financial institutions having more than 10 times the entire planets GDP tied up in them, it makes you wonder where the money came from.

    Next will be those margin calls you watch



    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,325 ✭✭✭Deub


    Statement from the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA) and Swiss National Bank: they will provide liquidity to CS if needed





  • Registered Users Posts: 9,308 ✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    What are they doing in the Hyacinth House?



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,018 ✭✭✭Jonnyc135


    Regarding Ireland, my email has really gone into overdrive in terms of the amount of emails in the last week from Linkedfiance notifing new loans on the marketplace.

    It looks like there is zero appitite for risk from any Irish bank at the minute, and some of these "class A" loans.



  • Registered Users Posts: 43,028 ✭✭✭✭SEPT 23 1989


    We have learned our lesson never again

    thank you tax payers we will do it again



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,826 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Ultimately it was poor decision making that killed it but the surge in interest rates has caused a lot of unintended consequences.


    It looks like this week has changed the target rate in America and Europe.


    The danger of small but well run banks seeing deposits flee to bigger banks or other outlets was real.



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,480 ✭✭✭✭bucketybuck


    Such weasel words. The thread was created last year as a natural response to a time of huge financial upheaval, there were and are very clear indicators of trouble ahead so you don't get to snidely dismiss it as "People are always saying this, everything is fine".

    Most of us lived through the Celtic tiger and then the crash, most of us know only too well now what caused it. And we well remember the lads back then who dismissed all concerns and who claimed everything was normal. You are no different to them, you just feel the need to repeat it more than most.

    A cryptocurrency investor constantly telling everybody else to ignore the red flags, who could have guessed. And who would listen to it.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]




  • Registered Users Posts: 6,901 ✭✭✭amacca


    The banks should be made go back to safe boring old institutions with feck all risk when this blows over


    If you want to engage in poor risk management, complex ways of packaging poor debt, excessive compensation for shysters etc then have at it but you'll do it under a different designation than bank and you'll come with a Health warning and zero....**** zero chance of bailouts/socialising losses...


    Collateralised debt/ large tranches of shite/risky debt hidden in with some performing stuff and then sold and resold should never have been let happen and the kind of shite that's clearly been happening recently shouldn't have been let proceed either


    Yet another **** up because **** aren't exposed to consequences in a timely fashion....this time it's greedy rich connected politically influential ****.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,826 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Nouriel Roubini saying that another .5% ECB interest rate hike could see Credit Suisse go broke this weekend.



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