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A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

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  • Registered Users Posts: 655 ✭✭✭BoxcarWilliam99




  • Registered Users Posts: 4,500 ✭✭✭An Ri rua


    Fed Pivot confirmed: $297BN in the past week.

    Let's see the pressure build on ECB hike now.

    https://youtu.be/A9O_qr0Dta8



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,062 ✭✭✭patnor1011


    Bailing out banks is pure socialism for the rich all paid for by taxpayer. No matter how much money you print, socialism just isn't going to work.





  • Did’nt he say something like they should commit suicide.



  • Registered Users Posts: 595 ✭✭✭Fine Day


    I seen that on reeling in the years not so long ago. What a prick to say such a horrible thing. I am sure he never apologies for it either.

    Post edited by Boards.ie: Paul on


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,625 ✭✭✭brickster69


    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,904 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    Equally the ones constantly predicting US/EU/Western economic doomsday is coming down the tracks at us are not exactly all knowing oracles. Yeah I'm sure they may be right some time (the train may arrive eventually), same as a stopped watch.

    Some of them have their own agendas and biases.

    It isn't obvious with all of them without reading the "output" for some time!!



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,904 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    A quick google later! He got alot of stick for it at the time if you don't remember it personally. Should not have said it.

    edit:

    Random thought, It is interesting, there's always a tension between preciousness and outrage abut politicians overstepping in their rhetoric and making a remark that hurts/offends/damages some group, and politicians giving their honest, clear, opinions (off the cuff).

    Do we want these people to be (more) human and honest (with increased risk they will make such remarks and hurt someone as we all do at times in life) or do we want ultra careful politicians who will never ever offend anyone at all (which the "public" can then find boring, robotic + fake and insincere).



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,404 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    errr emm, this is actually what this form of capitalism is, virtually everything is done to enrich the already rich, while making sure everyone else gets screwed, go capitalism!



  • Registered Users Posts: 949 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    Not quite.


    This is expensive money for banks, and it requires collateral, and so banks won’t borrow long at this rate if they can avoid it, and they tend to pay back those loans quickly, as you can see from the chart below.They borrowed this way because they needed to have the funds like “right now” when depositors were yanking their money out late last week and this week, as SVB Financial collapsed and panic spread.But in relationship to the amount of overall deposits, the $153 billion is much smaller than during the financial crisis ($111 billion). In 2008, total deposits amounted to $6.7 trillion; at the beginning of March, total deposits were $17.6 trillion, over 2.6 times the level in 2008.


    https://wolfstreet.com/2023/03/16/fed-loaned-160-billion-to-banks-and-142-billion-to-fdic-but-qt-related-roll-off-continued/



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  • Registered Users Posts: 949 ✭✭✭Ozark707



    Figures like this will make it more likely ECB will continue to hike.


    Inflation excluding volatile food and fuel prices, which is closely watched by the European Central Bank, rose to 5.6% from 5.3%. The central bank raised borrowing costs by a further 50 basis points yesterday to try and bring inflation under control and its latest projections showed underlying price growth will stay above it 2% target for years to come, through 2025.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2023/mar/17/markets-us-banks-first-republic-rescue-business-live



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,404 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    ...yup, we re locked in for more financial sector turmoil, go central banks!



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,326 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    Nobody on here knows $hit at the end of the day. We take an interest but that's about it.

    Posters continuously posting doomsdayers everytime a fairly notable incident occurs are just trolls. And the one on particular on here is a troll who thinks they're an oracle.

    No sign of them in here reporting CS down 10% today. Clearly as much of an agenda as a doomsdayer.



  • Registered Users Posts: 949 ✭✭✭Ozark707




  • Registered Users Posts: 17,981 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    It all depends. A bank may run into a situation where it's solvent but temporarily can't meet intraday needs, in which case, lending it money (a bailout) can prop it up during that crunch, mitigate the nasty effects and save depositors (rich or poor), as well as reduce contagion.

    When it comes to a systemic crisis, like 2008, not lending any money to banks in that situation could (was) going to end up with people not being able to get money out at ATMs and some genuinely edge of the abyss stuff

    If a bank has fucked up, no one really has a problem with it going down. But if it's a big bank, and it going down could trigger all sorts of unpleasant contagion and panic, which could cause collateral damage to normal or well performing banks, which could create really big problems (like 2008), that's when it can become harder to just "let it fail".



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,512 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    Don’t think you’re right when you say no one knows sh1t… banking regulations is there for anyone to read and the accounts are all published with a ton of information. Retail Banking is no where near as complicated as some think.

    The one variable no one can predict is people and how they react. Banking is about confidence and no matter how strong a bank is or what supports it gets from central banks if confidence is eroded depositors will pull deposits and a bank is then in trouble. Simples!!!

    CS are just waiting for markets to close today and will then try and do a deal over the weekend to merge…will it work…no because any bank that merges or takes over CS will get dragged down and put themselves at risk… if the Swiss CB offering support doesn’t calm the market neither will a merger or a takeover.



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,404 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    ...ah no, i appreciate that, failing banks are very complex and potentially extremely dangerous due to those complexities, sometimes, maybe a lot of the time, it makes sense to bail them out, but theres clearly something deeply wrong with the whole process, by continually bailing them out, it sets a precedence of carry on, and engage in whatever practices you want, without repercussions, it creates an environment of endless risk taking without consequences, thats a major problem for us all, no matter where people are on the socioeconomic scale, we cant keep doing this!



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,404 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    ...but there is sufficient evidence to support, this era of deregulation of the financial sector has catastrophically failed, in the last few decades alone, we ve experienced a significant rise in bank failures, and magnitude of such, and when you start to add in activities such as complex financial sector activities, derivatives trading etc, and the fact the majority of people, in particular policy makers, still have a refusal to accept that banks actually play a critical role in the money supply, i.e. credit creation, we re in serious trouble here! theres nothing simply about finance and banking!



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,326 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    Who said banking was complicated? Cause I certainly didn't. I've worked in Finance for nearly 20 years, I've never had a difficult job in all that time.

    I still haven't a bulls fcuking notion what the next Lehman's is. Which is why I live in a 3bed in Dublin suburbia.

    Id wager yourself and Dhonjoe are about the same, so yous dont know $hit either and we're all just in here killing time and speculating out of boredom and interest.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    I think banks are complicated. I understand them well, but they are complicated machines. 🤷‍♂️



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  • Registered Users Posts: 576 ✭✭✭GNWoodd


    So, will anyone offer an opinion on the safety / integrity of the average Irish bank deposit at this point in time ?



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,512 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    There has been more regulation added in the past 15 years which is the complete opposite of deregulation.

    99% of derivatives used by retail banks are straight forward and not complex let’s not forget the majority of derivatives in circulation are spot/fed fx, interest rate swaps or asset swaps.

    you bang on again about credit creation by banks and advocate we need more fiscal spending…we’ll surprise surprise fiscal spending is also credit creation.

    People seem shocked that banks would buy bonds. And think we have seen banks go under because of these bonds. When the reality is that the troubled banks made a big risky bet which went wrong. A bond at the end of the day is nothing more than one of the safest loans on the market.

    most people know it doesn’t make financial sense to remortgage a house to go on an expensive holiday or to buy a car. But yet when a bank does similar it’s complex and not bad decision making and the safest asset on the market is it at fault.



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,404 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    ...and again, credit is now hardwired to achieve primarily one objective, to aid asset price inflation, this is causing deep instabilities in global financial and asset markets, and serious social instabilities, rising wealth inequalities etc, we cant keep doing this, we cant keep playing this game, and expect things to remain stable!

    oh and i advocate for a more deficit spending approach, in order to become less reliant on credit supplies, in order to try maintain some element of stabilisation, even though id imagine this to would introduce its own problems...

    ...and again, banking finances cannot be simplified and compared to house hold spending, theres clearly high levels of speculation and damn right dangerous behaviors within the financial sectors, and our unwillingness to accept these behaviors are causing serious problems for all, including for these financial institutions themselves...

    again for example, there was a clear case of insider trading in davys post 08, and nothing happened over this, no major investigations, no law suits, no nothing, it was quickly bundled up and sold off, and nothing to see here, thats not normal! oh and according to some experts in the field, those that purchase such operations, are more than likely also up to no good! nothing to see here!



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,512 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    Wager away…..’yous don’t know sh1t” 🤣🤣….. maybe do some research and you will see I am talking about factual regulation that is put in place to mitigate risks. So when someone says x will cause another GFC all that I am doing is pointing out that this has been considered and the risk is monitored and limited so is highly unlikely to cause another GFC

    No-one is saying that we won’t see another GFC because of course that could happen if everyone took there money out of the bank at the same time because of a major lack in confidence in the banking sector.

    What would cause that? I don’t know but I do know that one or two banks failing because of a very clear and specific circumstance isn’t going to cause it.

    Yes it puts stress on the banking system and something else could emerge that damages depositor’s confidence but the likelihood is remote because of the regulations that have been put in place over the past 15 years.



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,404 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    might interest some here...

    Friday, 3/17, 4:30 EDT

    https://umsystem.zoom.us/j/96278987370



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Compared to 2008, Irish banks are in a good state from a capital perspective. If for some reason liquidity becomes an issue, the ECB are there to provide that.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,512 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    What is the alternative to the current banking system?

    the safest bank in the world would be a bank that doesn’t lend and keeps all its money in cash with the central bank. How would people buy houses cars etc as there would no longer be credit. Are you advocating the government will lend to consumers. Like it or not credit is the life blood of economic activity and is required. As for fraud in banking I dread to think the levels of fraud if this was managed by the public sector where nobody is accountable for anything.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,326 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    You're talking like there was no regulation pre 08 or something. You're off your rocker if you think there's no lurking systemic risk somewhere. There always be. Rules are there to be broken and finance is a greedy cesspit full of snake oil salesmen.

    I've genuinely no idea what you're even trying to argue. It's like you're saying a GFC won't happen because now they've regulated it but but like depending on sentiment it could, who knows...

    You're talking a$$ imo.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,512 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    Your entitled to your opinion by it doesn’t mean everyone needs to agree with it.

    what I am saying is that banking is safer now and it’s unlikely to cause another GFC. Does that mean we won’t see another GFC no it doesn’t because as you describe it the snake oil salesmen still exist but mainly outside banking. Is there potential that a less regulated area outside banking that could implode and bring down the banks system because people loose confidence Yes of course that risk exists. And I have always highlighted that this is where I believe the real risk of another GFC would stem from.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 601 ✭✭✭mike_cork


    Don't know if this counts as recession related but newsworthy all the same




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