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Cost of a United Ireland and the GFA

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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,268 ✭✭✭jh79


    The current governments time is nearly up. Unlikely to be a BP this decade so why would the current government be under pressure?



  • Registered Users Posts: 27,909 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    I actually think that there are some posters on here who believe that because Michelle O'Neill is going to become First Minister that means that a border poll will pass. They are the same group who believe that FF and FG conspired against SF becoming the party of government when they "won" the last general election here. A basic lack of understanding of electoral numbers is behind this.

    The combined vote for nationalist parties is at best static for the last 20 years, by some reckoning it has dropped a few percentage points. In that context, a border poll is actually further away now than then.

    That is the simple maths, and the simple answer to the nonsensical calls for a border poll. 25 years of the GFA and we haven't had a border poll because the conditions set out in it for one are further away than ever, despite all the noise. Those numbers support my thesis that SF have been divisive rather than helpful towards a united Ireland as the numbers go backwards the louder they get.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,482 ✭✭✭✭Brendan Bendar


    On the money there,you are correct.

    What are MLMCD and MON doing in the States right now

    Promoting Ireland for jobs- no

    Making contacts to get more FDI for the country- no

    Trying to part Irish Americans with hard cash to keep their idealistic badly planned ideal alive-yes.

    Anyone with an ounce..a gramme of sense knows that now is not the time to be importing problems into our country.

    Will most of those who so fervently want this issue front and centre right now have to fund it……Will they F**k.

    They will sit back and blame any Govt who is unlucky enough to be in power if it happens any time soon.

    Now is not the time for this, nobody is ready, not by a long shot.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,845 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    It's 2023 and given what has happened in the last few years, only a fool would make such a blanket prediction.

    What is happening now is very similar to the lead up to most referendums.

    Sitting government attempts to kick to touch, denigrate or dismiss then suddenly the pressure pays off and either the referendum is called or the process towards one is begun.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,268 ✭✭✭jh79


    According to the media an election could happen this year and if not, it will be 2025. BP is not on the horizon just yet. Laughable to suggest there is pressure on the current government. Maybe the next might but to be honest i doubt that'll be the case either with the lack of support for unity.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 68,845 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Never said a BP is on the horizon.

    Planning for one though is.

    Leo cannot ignore any calls for one. He is trying to run away from responsible government.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,482 ✭✭✭✭Brendan Bendar


    I can say that given the problems this country has right now the most irresponsible thing he could do is taking

    any notice these clueless idealists have of trying to shove anything to do with a UI up front and centre.

    Not the time.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,845 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    It is irresponsible not to be prepared. Criminally so IMO.

    Oppression didn't work and trying to suppress the will of majorities to have a border poll, won't either.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,268 ✭✭✭jh79


    We should be prepared and should plan for it just in case. But I don't believe there is any pressure to either plan for it or a border poll. Time is on our side , all the opinion polls show little support for unity. Can't see people demanding a border poll in these circumstances.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,845 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Majorities on both sides want a border poll.

    This is just trumpet one poll that supports me but ignore another that undermines totally any argument I am making.

    Not how it works and momentum will still grow here because there is a weight of political and public will behind it.

    As I said, the prelude to almost all referendums anywhere.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,268 ✭✭✭jh79


    Just because a poll says the majority want a BP doesn't mean there is pressure on the government. Don't see any evidence of pressure and with support for actually voting yes consistently poor, can't see any change.

    If future polls were to say it was a major election issue then possibly but it never has been in the past.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,845 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    The government would ignore it if they were not under pressure.

    It take a fair bit of political naiviete to not be able to work out that this is a growing campaign. It isn't going away.

    Having to come on here trying to suppress the idea is a sign that the pressure is on you.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,268 ✭✭✭jh79


    Do you really think boards is that influential?? A bunch of bored middle aged men arguing on a dying platform. No offense to anyone. I wouldn't do it if i didn't enjoy it but seriously do you really believe what you wrote in the last paragraph?



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,482 ✭✭✭✭Brendan Bendar


    A bunch of idealists and dreamers will never push forward a BP right now.

    Its like a lad whose kitchen is on fire measuring the living room wall for a big 60inch Tv.

    Sort out the frikken kitchen first dude.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,610 ✭✭✭Fionn1952


    Yet the same ones tell us how great everything is and how privileged we are when anyone points out the housing crisis, the HSE situation or any other criticisms of the current government, Bren.

    Which is it? Are we one of the luckiest, most privileged societies in the world.....or is our proverbial kitchen on fire?



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,194 ✭✭✭✭Ha Long Bay



    It's so far down the list as an issue with voters I don't see where this alleged pressure is coming from.





  • Registered Users Posts: 68,845 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    I believe there are those here petrified about where this is going. They all poo up whenever the subject arises. If you weren’t worried/under pressure you wouldn’t be so anxious. Stands to reason.

    Same applies in the political sphere.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,268 ✭✭✭jh79


    So at the next election, which isn't too far away, it will pop up in opinion polls as a major issue?



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,845 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    It will be addressed in the manifesto’s of political parties I reckon.

    SF will most likely promise action on a CA and a plan if they go into government.

    The ‘majority’ in favour of a poll will have no issue with that and once complete then you can hold a valid poll.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,268 ✭✭✭jh79


    I mean when polls ask what are your priorities for the election, will it feature ? Surely if this pressure exists it will be reflected in the polls.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 68,845 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Why would it feature? Successive governments have suppressed any manifestation of our constitutional aspirations.

    It will take political leadership to put it front and centre. Again, that is why Varadkar etc go on the attack if it finds itself at the centre of the news-cycle via the action of SF.

    Both FF and FG are trying to find a way to be the leaders of the last push to end partition. It kills them that they might sound like or be identified with the Shinners but they know the day is coming.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,268 ✭✭✭jh79


    So no actual evidence that there is pressure on the government just an opinion rather tenuously based on Leo reaction to the SF ads.

    How have they suppressed it? Did you ever think that FG/FF policies towards unity reflect the opinions of the public? FG/FF are apathetic towards unity because we as a nation are.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,845 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    The majority of the public in both jurisdictions want a Border Poll. Which does not reflect FF and FG's public utterances

    BTW You could also have said that about any referendum that was campaigned for by activists, here or elsewhere. The government resists until the government doesn't that is par for the course.

    Also, there is apathy and then there is outright resistance. What Leo etc is doing is 'resisting' any moves towards the constitutional aspiration coming from the great nenesis - SF, while positioning themselves to try and lead a Border Poll campaign. FG changing their constitution to stand candidates in NI and FF's Shared Island project. etc. That is evidence of the pressure to do something. The pressure for a Citizen's Assembly is growing, I think you will see that happen soon.

    Lá Fhéile Pádraig sona duit



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,268 ✭✭✭jh79


    Francie, before the 8th amendment and SSM referendums you could see the momentum building. I don't see that with unity. A small but vocal minority on social media ie Ireland's Future but it's not spreading beyond that

    I think we'll only see a Citizen Assembly if SF make it into government.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,268 ✭✭✭jh79


    "Why would it feature"

    Which is it Francie, there is momentum towards a BP or it is being suppressed?



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,845 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Well you would say that. The reality of the SSM situation is that the government resisted legislation on that(tried a sop to it with civil partnership) until they couldn't anymore. Remember our current Taoiseach's position on SS adoption for instance? Momentum changed government's thinkin in other words.

    You don't or won't see momentum, take your pick.

    Perhaps, don't take your lead from those with their backs to the wall. Have a look at the view from outside.


    P.S. Somebody should tell Shane Ross that while he might fear the 'ghosts of the past' actual Irish people are having to put up with them right now as Unionism tries to take us back to the heady days of a sectarian bigoted state where they had a veto. That (and it will continue) will push more and more towards wanting a plebiscite to decide their own fate.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,268 ✭✭✭jh79


    The % Catholic increased by less than 1% since the GFA (think it is 0.6%). Only 75% of Catholics want unity. If that is maintained then you are multiple generations away. You'd need a 70% Catholic cohort based on current patterns. Demographics alone are not going to achieve a UI. The link is evidence of nothing. Ireland Future events have had no impact and Harvey is back moaning on twitter.

    The government changed its position on SSM because of the momentum behind it . FF/FG continued lax approach to unity is because there is no pressure on them and that is reflected in the opinion poll linked by another poster where unity doesn't feature as a major issue.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,845 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    You don't need anything to justify a poll. A majority now want one.

    Rubbish on the SSM situation too and a rather pro government white washed stance.

    Just like on this issue, they resisted change until they couldn't - i.e. The government resists until the government doesn't. When the wind started blowing a certain way and after a Citizens assembly sure the FF and FG boys and gals were always for it, veritable lifelong committed campaigners for it, weren't they! 😁



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,272 ✭✭✭✭namloc1980


    And the same polling shows it would be roundly rejected by at least 2:1 in the North. Forcing a border poll that would be massively defeated in the North would set back the prospect by generations.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,268 ✭✭✭jh79




This discussion has been closed.
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