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Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,570 ✭✭✭jackboy


    If one Ukrainian was being killed for every 3 or 4 Russians then Russia would win the war. The ratio needs to be at least one to 10.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 26,665 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    On a very basic arithmetic level, the population of Russia is 3.5 times that of Ukraine...

    This, of course, ignoring the motivational difference between defending your country and pointlessly invading a country.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,924 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Ukraine was not a military power, Russia has one of the largest militaries in the world.

    Every Western analyst predicted that Ukraine would fall in weeks if not days when Russia invaded in 2022. They didn't. Not only that but they even pushed the Russians back. They've done extraordinarily well, that doesn't make them infallible. Stop confusing optimism with a "timetable". It's a fluid dynamic situation, we all want Ukraine to prevail, but this war doesn't have some script you've imagined you were told..

    We've been told

    And there it is, that child-like "we were told" thing. They performed above and beyond anyone's expectations. They've been destroying the Russian military equipment at the rate of at least 4 to 1. Despite that, the Russian military is still massive. They have vast resources. Their country is not under attack (whereas Ukraine has an infrastructure constantly under attack). Russia is slowly and gradually adapting. They have unmolested train lines of ammo and shells just flowing to the front. Ukraine are fighting with just about every disadvantage possible, yet somehow they are still holding them back.

    No one knows precisely what's going to happen, as expressed by literally everyone, but the Ukrainians have to keep their optimism and so does it's allies.

    You seem to think it's like a company with a roadmap and you're "angry" they aren't sticking to the roadmap.

    Public and political support for this military adventurism from the west, is to a large extent reliant on what the projected outcome will likely be. If people realise they are being lied to about how this conflict is actually progressing, they're not going to be very happy about supporting some never ending crusade to defeat Russia. There is a relatively small but loud minority in the west who are enjoying and cheering on this ugly blood-fest... most people in the west would prefer some sort of negotiated peace.

    Just because you don't understand the conflict doesn't mean everyone else doesn't. Europe is under attack by a dictator who will never stop, Ukraine is, for now, stopping him. It's perfectly legal for countries to support Ukraine defend itself (and by extension defending Europe). The majority of people in most countries support Ukraine. I'm guessing you're probably from Europe, but it's hard to tell when people sound like they are from the Russian ministry of defense.

    Individuals, like yourself, who blame the West for everything and indirectly parrot all the lines from the Kremlin, who want to reward Putin with Ukrainian land and support Putin prevailing in the name of "peace" are not a majority.

    No one wants this war, everyone wants peace, but we don't have a choice. Putin will never stop unless stopped. Feeding him land just encourages it more. Ukraine is wearing down his war machine and paying for that in blood. If we aren't supporting Ukraine, we are enabling Putin.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 26,665 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    It's a very simple and logical question to ask.

    Its simple but not particularly logical if given a moment's thought. Why were the Germans able to advance in the Battle of the Bulge despite being unquestionably massively inferior to the allied forces in Europe in 1944?

    The Russians are throwing absolutely everything at Bakhmut and just about barely advancing. The Ukrainians are not committing everything to its defence. The next few months will tell a lot, but if anyone thinks that any conflict would involve nothing but relentless success for one side (particularly an outnumbered one) then its their own misconceptions at fault.

    I'm not rolling anything back. The Russians are an incompetent, poorly led and corruption riddled mess. Massed artillery and human waves of convicts and conscripts can still be locally effective, albeit with horrendous and unsustainable casualties.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,324 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    But Russia can't empty the country, or its borders, indefinitely. Ukraine is fighting for its existence and you can be sure Poland and other neighbours will do as much as possible to help. Including, as of this week, sending fighter jets as they lead the charge in arms. Russian troops' morale is apparently nonexistent and "all" Ukraine has to do is make it not worth the effort.

    Arguably it's already at that point, what happens next will be instructive. What Russia sees in Bahkmut to be worth the corpses, maybe just cos many are privatised Wagner drones, is anyone's guess.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,883 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    @Run Forest Run military adventurism from the west

    While Russia mounts giant invasion of its neighbour, burns up disgusting amounts of lives (and resources) on both sides, ultimately for what (?) if it is not almost pure "military adventurism" on the part of the Russian leadership?

    Opposite day dawns!?



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,324 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    Oh I missed that line, somehow. Right so we're back to the same old rhetoric from the usual playbook of anti Western/NATO tub thumping. Should have known the thread only got bumped to trot out the usual empty sloganeering.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,570 ✭✭✭jackboy


    The Russians are forced to fight. Yes the Ukrainians are more motivated but will their young population of men accept almost certain death. I don’t think so, there will be a point where they will not comply anymore. That’s why I believe the kill ratio must be a lot higher than 4 to 1. From what we are hearing the kill ratio is much larger than that anyway.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 26,665 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    What "almost certain death"?

    The motivation and will to fight for those defending their families from rape and torture is generally better than those "forced" to fight. You have the chances of mass refusal to fight completely backwards.



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Someone must miss posting the same old nonsense in the CA thread



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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,570 ✭✭✭jackboy


    A kill ratio of 1 to 4 means almost certain death for young Ukrainian men, that’s all I am saying. The Russians cannot refuse to fight, they are even using prisoners as cannon fodder. From what we are hearing the kill ratios are vastly higher than 1 to 4 anyway so should not be an issue.



  • Registered Users Posts: 478 ✭✭Run Forest Run


    You're making dangerous assumptions here. Just like many western leaders.

    And the outcome of this war might rely on the legitimacy of those assumptions.

    I have many friends in Russia, and quite a significant amount of people see this war as a battle for their existence against NATO not Ukraine. They're prepared to fight as long as necessary and pay whatever price is required. Many people in the west are underestimating Russian resolve in this conflict. War is always unpopular, but that doesn't mean giving up and losing a war is a popular alternative.

    The western pipe dream that Russia is just going to give up and go home, is fantasy nonsense. Russians are about as likely to give up in war as Ukrainians are... which is to say there is practically zero chance of them giving up.

    It's looking very unlikely that Ukraine can actually achieve a comprehensive victory and drive Russia out of their territory (despite what the propagandists have been telling us for 12 months now about Ukrainian superiority on the battlefield). So a bloody stalemate, is the most likely outcome in the short to medium term. This isn't a great selling point for continued public and political support.

    And then there is the prospect of Russia making gains - like in Bahkmut. How do you sell this to people in the west? Only a small proportion of people are actually naive enough to buy into the whole "Bahkmut doesn't matter" line... as they can see how hard Ukraine have been fighting to hold onto it. I'm afraid the logic doesn't stack up!

    Propaganda will only take you so far in war. Ultimately, there needs to be concrete results to back up all the rhetoric. Fail to produce this on the battlefield, and your words start to become very hollow.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,924 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    I'm sure you do have many friends in Russia from the sounds of it.

    It's looking very unlikely that Ukraine can actually achieve a comprehensive victory and drive Russia out of their territory (despite what the propagandists have been telling us for 12 months now about Ukrainian superiority on the battlefield).

    This "They told us" line again.

    I'm expecting a long war, I've said this for a long time. It's currently close to a stalemate, and most people are perfectly aware of that. They still support Ukraine. Again, you're confusing support and morale for Ukraine as sort of "schedule" that you're getting angry at.

    And then there is the prospect of Russia making gains - like in Bahkmut. How do you sell this to people in the west? Only a small proportion of people are actually naive enough to buy into the whole "Bahkmut doesn't matter" line... as they can see how hard Ukraine have been fighting to hold onto it. I'm afraid the logic doesn't stack up!

    Russia has been making gradual incremental gains in Bahkmut and elsewhere, everyone knows this, it's all over the news. You seem to live in a fantasy world where the public doesn't know this.

    In fact your entire point seems to hinge on you projecting your lack of knowledge on the war on everyone else.

    The western pipe dream that Russia is just going to give up and go home

    The Russian military are using mercenaries, getting munitions from N Korea, using rockets and tanks from the 60's, units and troops are openly addressing commanders and Putin in videos complaining that they don't have proper training, or proper weapons, or adequate supplies. And that's just one year in. I can go on and on. Russia is still a potent large military force, but there are many, many cracks showing. Maybe they'll dig in and it will be a stalemate for 5 years, maybe they'll make slow incremental gains, or maybe front or units will crack. Ukraine may never recapture back all it's territory, but they don't have any choice, the second they stop fighting, then your Russian friends murder and torture and rape their way to Kyiv and beyond.

    It's like you have no problem with that. It's obvious you want Europe/US to stop supporting Ukraine so that Putin will prevail.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 26,665 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    A kill ratio of 1 to 4 means almost certain death for young Ukrainian men

    This makes zero sense unless your point is that Russia will send literally every last Russian man into Ukraine and thus the male populations of both countries will end up completely dead (quite a lot of women in the Ukrainian armed forces mind, so the ratio doesn't even stack up). Its a nonsensical argument - a "kill ratio" of 4:1 in Ukraine's favour across the conflict would lead to a pretty substantial Ukrainian victory.

    Russians can, of course, refuse to fight. It just comes with costs. Eventually those costs might be seen as preferable to combat. Russia has plenty of recent history of poor performance in conflicts leading to internal strife and regime change. In contrast, the choice for Ukrainians is continue to fight or be killed by Russian death squads.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,578 ✭✭✭Field east


    You aLso need to factor in

    (@) the number that have left Moscovy in order not to be conscripted

    (b) the belief in ‘the cause’. I recon it’s much stronger on the Ukr side



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    @Run Forest Run


    "I have many friends in Russia, and quite a significant amount of people see this war as a battle for their existence against NATO not Ukraine. They're prepared to fight as long as necessary and pay whatever price is required. Many people in the west are underestimating Russian resolve in this conflict. War is always unpopular, but that doesn't mean giving up and losing a war is a popular alternative"

    Bs ,if the war is so popular why are so many men and pregnant Women are fleeing so they can have their kids in other countries to claim citizenship,

    "In contrast, the choice for Ukrainians is continue to fight or be killed by Russian death squads."

    Again more bs claims fight or be killed by Death squads ,it's the Russians dieing in their tens of thousands in bakhmut alone,30,000-40,000 dead and a similar number is incapacitated or disabled and yet ukraine still holds bakhmut after 7 months of the Russians throwing everything at bakhmut bar a nuclear weapon ,

    Vuhledar is the same tens of thousands of Russians dead , heading towards 200 tanks and other armoured vehicles destroyed and yet the Ukrainians are complete control of Vuhledar, kreminna is going the same way,

    Ukrainian strikes are regularly hitting Russian forces and weapons warehouses in Mariupol and Melitopol well behind their lines ,

    And this is all before the Ukrainians have started a counter offensive,and more Western tanks and other armoured vehicles are coming into ukraine along with other weapons and more aircraft,

    Meanwhile in Russia they are conscripting another 400,000 ,on top the other 300,000 and 100,000 conscripted before and after the 250,000 men they invaded ukraine with.....

    I don't think you have any russian friends or Ukrainian for that matter,

    Antidotal claims nothing more



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    International criminal court issues an arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin on War crimes charges including charges relating to the forced deportation of Ukrainan children to Russia to be illegal adopted.




    Post edited by Gatling on


  • Registered Users Posts: 478 ✭✭Run Forest Run


    So when do you think Ukraine will win then Gatling?

    And do you think they will continue to enjoy strong political support even if victory doesn't look likely say in the next 12 months for example?

    Will Ukraine be under pressure to produce tangible results, for example, as we get closer to the US election campaigns? This war is very likely to be a hot debate topic for candidates in that election.

    If Bakhmut falls to the Russians, what effect do think this will have on the overall view of how the war is progressing? Big setback... small setback?



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Bakhmut holds.

    But as I've Said since day one and ukraine are winning,and will keep winning, putin is a wanted man ,they are on their 4 mobilisation and still losing against a military that barely existed a few years ago.

    Russia will collapse and collapse spectacularly,no ukraine,no Crimea,no Moldova,no Belarus and will likely loss territory to the Chinese eventually,

    Meanwhile ukraine joins the EU and Nato putin the master strategist hey ....



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,444 ✭✭✭jmreire


    An even if it does, then that's Bakhmut 1 gone. Then you will have Bakhmut 2 and 3 and 4 etc. Putin better start thinking about a million man mobilization. At which point I can see mobilization offices and officers mysteriously being attacked and destroyed.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,444 ✭✭✭jmreire


    You seem to have missed the point of what the Russians do to Ukrainians in any territory they have captured. The ongoing discovery's of hundreds of bodies of men, women and children buried in trenches, hands bound behind their back's, and bearing all the marks of having being tortured before being cold bloodily executed. And you ask if their young population will fight??? I would safely say that this generation of young Ukrainians great grand children will fight Russian's anyway they can. For them, its an existential matter. The question is how long more will Russians allow Putin to kill them? As for the kill ratio....if its so high presently, under existing conditions, what do you think will happen when all this new military hardware comes on stream?



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,570 ✭✭✭jackboy


    I wasn’t talking about their willingness to fight I was talking about their willingness to die, which is completely different. This is why the kill ratio is critical. Yes, it appears to be high but must be kept high. The Ukrainians will not be shot for not fighting.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 26,665 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    The Ukrainians will not be shot for not fighting.

    This is not how you create an effective fighting force



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,570 ✭✭✭jackboy


    The Russians are not trying to create an effective fighting force. They are throwing enough bodies at the front in the hope of killing enough Ukrainians that they will negotiate a settlement. It’s a lunatic strategy.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 26,665 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    Yes it is utter lunacy.

    But I have no idea why you think these different environments suggest that it is the Ukrainian one that will crack first. This policy nearly failed drastically for the Soviets, it only worked because they were defending their homeland.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,570 ✭✭✭jackboy


    All I am saying is that success or failure of that strategy will come down to the kill ratio. Ukraine need it to be high, Russia need it to be reasonably low but 1 to 3 or 4 may be enough for them.



  • Registered Users Posts: 25,741 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    What's curious is that people are still so easily fooled by Putin and his misinformation.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,444 ✭✭✭jmreire


    For Ukrainians, unlike the Russians, they are prepared to die. Better to die with a gun in your hands fighting, then allowing Russians to kill you. Say you arrive home one night, and find that your wife and children are dead, killed horribly, wife and daughters raped. Baby lying on the floor, its brains bashed out from being swung around by the feet and smashed against the wall. And these kind of killing's by Russian ORCS have taken place, and much worse. Now what would you do? Personally, I'd be going to the nearest military office, and joining up. The hatred that Putin has engendered towards all things Russian, will outlast the memory of German atrocity's that present day Russians still have. This same hatred that is utilized by Putin when he uses the term "Nazi's" to whip up resentment against Ukraine and support for his war.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,843 ✭✭✭Pete_Cavan


    I don't know why you make Bakhmut falling out to to such a big deal for the Ukrainians. Losing a small town is a small price to pay for killing tens of thousands of Russians soldiers and holding up the Russians for months. Remember, in this time the Ukrainians have been receiving newer equipment while the Russians have been depleting their ammo with very few replacement sources available.

    The US are delighted watching Russia weakening (crippling) itself, both militarily and economically, for no good reason. The Ukrainians are delivering fantastic results for the US, it may be monetarily expensive for them but with no American lives lost, they will feel they are getting a great deal.



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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,324 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    But even that's a touch reductionist. It's not just "kills" that should be accounted for: Russia is sinking munitions, logistics, vehicles, artillery - everything it seems - into taking what amounts something of small strategic value in the grand scheme of things.

    It's a tad frustrating 'cos it's not clear how things are going along other fronts, Bakhmut sucking up the media oxygen, but by all accounts it appears as if a disproportionate amount of Russia's assets are being wasted here. Meanwhile, Ukraine doesn't appear to be suffering from this problem. A country buying arms (well, I think Wagner bought them, though even they're getting whittled away in Bakhmut) from North Korea is not in a good logistical position.



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