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Covid-19 likely to be man made

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 200 ✭✭geospatial



    Incorrect. The prevailing lab leak hypothesis from scientists who favor lab leak is that a virus that was collected by the researchers from Wuhan was modified via gain of function experiments resulting in a pathogen that led to SARS-COV2. Is it also possible that the actual virus that was collected could have led to the outbreak? Yes, but again it is very unlikely that such a virus would have the capability to infect humans and be so tranmissible between humans, as native bat coronaviruses tend not to infect humans directly and are not adapted for human transmission. In fact this is the argument for the research not being "gain of function" as the viruses being studied are not human pathogens.

    There is a lot of circumstantial evidence to support the above hypothesis.

    Arguing there was no censorship is utterly self defeating (not you necessarily), a group of leading medical professionals and virologists referring to fellow scientists as "conspitracy theorists" is not censorship?

    As for dangers associated with the lab leak theory, Alina Chan who has been the bravest scientist on the lab leak subject received numerous death threats and had to exit social media to protect herself. So much for no censorship.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,737 ✭✭✭SafeSurfer


    Have the FBI or Department of Energy ruled out that the virus may have been engineered/manipulated?

    Multo autem ad rem magis pertinet quallis tibi vide aris quam allis



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,231 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    They haven't stated that they believe it was engineered. The lab studied viruses from the wild.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,231 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    The current consensus among experts and scientists is that the virus is zoonotic.

    Only a handful of scientists believe it was "engineered".



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,737 ✭✭✭SafeSurfer


    If the lab leak theory is correct, is it more likely to be a naturally occurring virus or one that has been manipulated in some way?

    When will the findings of the FBI and DOE investigations be made public?

    Multo autem ad rem magis pertinet quallis tibi vide aris quam allis



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  • Registered Users Posts: 121 ✭✭dtothebtotheh


    How can there be a “consensus” that it is zoonotic? There has been no evidence to say it was, I.e they haven’t tracked down the original source, nor the intermediate species. Viruses take time to evolve and nothing like covid has been found.

    It’s utterly unscientific to declare it’s most likely anything without proof. The disgraceful handling of the investigation by China and the WHO tells me there is more to this. It’s been completely politicised, which is why we may never know.



  • Registered Users Posts: 121 ✭✭dtothebtotheh


    And it was covered up and censored from the very start, didn’t really help with any kind of investigation.

    labelling someone a conspiracy theorist for asking questions is a stealth form of censorship.



  • Registered Users Posts: 121 ✭✭dtothebtotheh


    personally, from what I’ve read, it did originate from WIV, the question for me is if it was deliberate or not.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,407 ✭✭✭✭King Mob


    Again no. An open letter, even if you weren't conflating things about it, is not censorship.


    It now seems you are suggesting that the conspiracy are sending people death threats.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,407 ✭✭✭✭King Mob


    And again, no one is calling the idea of a lab leak a conspiracy theory. You are misrepresenting what I posted.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,321 ✭✭✭emo72


    So a lab leak may not be a conspiracy theory? Very basic question, any chance of a straight yes or no answer please kingmob?



  • Registered Users Posts: 121 ✭✭dtothebtotheh


    the zoonotic theory logically is just as much of a conspiracy theory



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,407 ✭✭✭✭King Mob


    I've made my stance on this very clear in the post you're replying to.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,321 ✭✭✭emo72


    A yes or a no would have been nice, I did ask very politely, I always am. I only drop in on this thread occasionally. I haven't read it all.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,407 ✭✭✭✭King Mob


    OK. But the post you quoted makes my stance extremely clear. Not sure how you missed it in that case.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,407 ✭✭✭✭King Mob


    It's not by any definition a conspiracy theory as no one is suggesting that there was a conspiracy behind a zoonotic origin.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,321 ✭✭✭emo72


    Fair enough. You agree it's not a conspiracy theory that it may have leaked from WIV. Thank you.



  • Registered Users Posts: 121 ✭✭dtothebtotheh


    What does that even mean? Numerous people suggested it was a conspiracy



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,407 ✭✭✭✭King Mob


    No one has suggested the idea of a zoonotic orgin is a conspiracy.



  • Registered Users Posts: 121 ✭✭dtothebtotheh




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,407 ✭✭✭✭King Mob


    Yes. I have made this clear on many occasions.

    Though this doesn't seem to stop some people from still making the accusation.


    An example of a conspiracy theory would be like say, claiming that the virus was the result of trying to create a cure for AIDs.



  • Subscribers Posts: 41,915 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    Nothing like COVID has been found??????


    What do you think the 2 in "sars cov2" stands for?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,934 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    Scientifically, the differences in SARS-COV2 vs. other coronavirus are not the type of changes able to be made using gain of function research (not saying that the man-made aspect wasn't introducing an intermediate species and then spread to humans).



  • Registered Users Posts: 200 ✭✭geospatial


    What differences between SARS2 and other coronaviruses are you referrring to that are not able to be made using gain of function research?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,934 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    Here's a decent enough paper with plenty of references that covers both sides of the argument and probability of either:

    SARS-COV-2 as an artificial creation: scientific arguments and counterarguments - PMC (nih.gov)

    Ultimately, the type of changes seen in the SARS-COV2 spike protein are not currently reproducible using our current manipulation techniques using gain of function research. Now, that doesn't mean that the changes didn't occur naturally during research (virus evolve very fast) or that intermediate species weren't involved but that the 'man-made' part of the equation is implausible.



  • Registered Users Posts: 200 ✭✭geospatial



    But there's nothing in that paper to support your statement that "the type of changes seen in the SARS-COV2 spike protein are not currently reporducible using our current manipulation techniques using gain of function research". If there is, and I've missed it, then point it out. The article doesn't even mention laboratory made chimeric viruses which is the whole basis of the lab leak theory.

    What is missing from the article, and frankly from much of the discussion here, is a review of the published work at the WIV and between the WIV and UNC. Now perhaps that's due to how early this article is (published at beginning of 2021, so written in 2020). The attached paper is a good starting point from 2015, where the authors describe building chimeric viruses by inserting novel spike proteins into a SARS-COV backbone. This is not mentioned in the paper you posted, nor in the Proximal Orogins paper, nor in much of the discussion from 2020 to mid 2021. So that's the starting point, and then you review all other published papers from the WIV and UNC, and then review the Defuse proposal of 2018, and you start to understand the basis for the credible lab leak theory.

    https://www.nature.com/articles/nm.3985



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,407 ✭✭✭✭King Mob


    This paper does not say anything about supporting a lab leak.

    Also he carries this warning:

    Editors’ note, March 2020: We are aware that this article is being used as the basis for unverified theories that the novel coronavirus causing COVID-19 was engineered. There is no evidence that this is true; scientists believe that an animal is the most likely source of the coronavirus.

    Can only wonder why they might add that...



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,934 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    The point being that the particular mutation that occurred with SARS-COV2 on the spike protein was inconsistent with mutations being caused by Gain Of Function research because that particular mutation had not been observed prior to SARS-COV2 (unless the labs were lying about that, which, again, would be a conspiracy of note to expound).

    Because scientific details and the papers authors don't like getting themselves caught up in theories that their research specifically did not cover but uses a few similar terms that would let the theorists claim something. And again, if the authors were lying about this, that is an actual conspiracy that can be discussed (who, what, when, where, why).



  • Registered Users Posts: 200 ✭✭geospatial


    It's hardly surprising that an article published in 2015 doesn't discuss a lab leak theory of a virus that emerged in late 2019.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 200 ✭✭geospatial


    But that argument (the feautures of the RBD of the SARS-COV2 virus being consistent with natural evolution and inconsistent with gain of function research) is straight out of the Proximal Origins paper which has been thoroughly exposed as a PR exercise to suppress lab leak discussion. Interestingly the experts involved thought these features unlikely from nature and more likely engineered, but rather quickly changed their minds to engineering impossible, nature only. Why? That's the million dollar querstion, but in the words of Francis Collins, director of the NIH at the time "is there something we can do to put down this very destructive conspiracy, which seems to be gaining momentum". At this stage everyone agrees that the novel features of the RBD could have evolved naturally or could have evolved due to serial passaging on a chimeric virus in a lab. What we are lacking is a progenitor of the virus, either in the animal world or a lab or anywhere else.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,709 ✭✭✭jackboy


    Is it credible that the Chinese have not only failed to discover the source of the virus but they have not found a trail or even a shred of evidence of its origin. That failure I would think is less plausible than an accidental lab leak which has been covered up.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,934 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    The why is the conspiracy, that's what you need to expand upon, who is hiding information, why are they doing it, how many people know about it and why haven't they come forward with proof.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,342 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    Read an article ( can't remember from where, sorry, but a reliable publication, I think) a couple of months ago. and it was a detailed review of an investigation by a linguistics person into email traffic and messages from the Wuhan lab around the timespan before and after the leak was suspected. Think it must have been an intelligence op to have that level of detail. This guy worked in China in the diplomatic service for years so knew the type of euphemisns common to Chinese political services.

    There was a flurry after the date of the suspected leak along with some heavy and unusual political visits to the head of the lab. There were a few unusual emails saying everything was now under control.

    Also there were outreach to American gain of function labs before this about difficulties staffing the lab and maintaining control to the level required.

    It was stated by a chief scientist working there that they were operating to a lower level of safety than would have been internationally accepted for they type of infectious material they were dealing with.

    Cannot be investigated further as that particular scientist has since died! Feb 2020. This is the scientist who released the genome to international scientists.

    I cannot find it now but remember thinking at the time that it pointed to a cover up of an accidental leak, but also it showed negligence on the part of the authorities who were pushing their scientists to come up with results without giving them appropriate staffing and funding to maintain safety.

    (I didn't save it as I thought 'hey this is all coming out now.' Am surprised if it hasn't.)

    These scientists were in fear of their lives, not just their jobs.

    The authorities if they indeed did know about this are guilty of a gross act of negligence not seen since Chernobyl.

    This is stated to have occurred in October 2019, so 2 months ahead of any official announcements.

    I think is it part of the intelligence operation that Biden authorised into the origin of Covid.

    I will try to find the article and post it here.



  • Registered Users Posts: 200 ✭✭geospatial


    I can only speculate on the why. We know a fair bit of the conversations that were going on between Collins, Fauci and the group of virologists they discussed the outbreak with, as a lot has been released via FOIA, but a lot more has been redacted so an incomplete picture. What we do know is that the key virologists (Andersen, Farrar, Holmes) all had an initial impression that the virus was engineered. We also know that Collins and Fauci didn't really know much detail about this area of research and the funding that was going from NIH to EcoHealth to WIV. It looks to me like a bit of panic set in when this was realized, especially when the joint research from UNC and WIV was reviewed. There is a definite change in tone of communication once this is realized.

    There is no question that Collins and Fauci wanted to knock lab leak conspiracy theories on the head, they said as much. Collins talked about the damage to science,especially Chinese scientists and the damage to intermnational relations. I would imagine what happened is after days of deliberations the virologists agreed that the virus could have come from a natural spillover or come from a lab leak, but were convinced that it was best to favor the former and discount the latter. We don't know exactly how they reached their Proxinal Origins conclusions as this is redacted.

    Imagine what they were dealing with, a virus that was spreading out of control and reports out of China were it had a high fatality rate. A suggestion the virus was the result of research carried out in a lab in China, research that was funded by the USNIH. Imagine the furore if that was widely reported, at a time when there was intense fear among the population.

    In short my opinion is i think Collins made a political decision and convinced Fauci and the scientists.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,407 ✭✭✭✭King Mob




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  • Registered Users Posts: 200 ✭✭geospatial


    It does, but I suspect you have little or perhaps no understanding as to why. Also it isn't my argument, it's a hypothesis proposed by people who know the subject matter far better than you or I. It establishes the fact that the WIV in collaboration with UNC were building chimeric SARS-COV viruses where they inserted novel spikes into COV virus backbones, and then passaged them using humanized mice and found they caused more serious disease than the original virus. So it's an obvious place to look if you are serious about finding the origin of Covid, not an easy task as the Chinese government have zero interest in helping with the task and 100% interest in twarting it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭mcsean2163




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,407 ✭✭✭✭King Mob


    OK weird. Cause in your previous post you were using the idea that a paper didn't support an argument because it didn't mention the point a person was making.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,407 ✭✭✭✭King Mob


    The Robert Kennedy Jr who is a prolific anti-vaxxer and conspiracy theorist?

    The one who claims that vaccines cause autism and claimed:

    In the book, Kennedy calls Fauci "a powerful technocrat who helped orchestrate and execute 2020’s historic coup d’etat against Western democracy". He claims Fauci and Bill Gates plan to prolong the pandemic and exaggerate its effects, promoting expensive vaccinations for the benefit of "a powerful vaccine cartel".



  • Registered Users Posts: 200 ✭✭geospatial


    No idea where you are getting that from, but sorry have no interest in getting into another semantic back and forth as you seem to have zero interest in the actual topic.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,407 ✭✭✭✭King Mob


    No I'm pretty interested in discussing conspiracy theories about the origin of the virus.

    But there's a lot of people insisting that there aren't any and that they aren't interested in discussing them.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,737 ✭✭✭SafeSurfer


    Which is why people are on a thread discussing the origins of Covid on a Conspiracy Theory forum.

    Multo autem ad rem magis pertinet quallis tibi vide aris quam allis



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,737 ✭✭✭SafeSurfer


    I’m not sure if “the lab studied viruses from the wild” accurately describes what was happening at the WIV.

    “Studied” suggests something entirely different than

    “As part of the work, the team — including the renowned Chinese virologist Shi Zhengli, known as China’s “batwoman” — spliced together two different coronaviruses, creating a more dangerous version, which they found had the potential to infect humans, according to a 2015 paper the scientists published in the journal Nature.”

    As quoted in this article from the FT.


    https://www.ft.com/content/7fef48f1-88a4-48f7-8263-c50384643b7f

    Multo autem ad rem magis pertinet quallis tibi vide aris quam allis



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭mcsean2163




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,737 ✭✭✭SafeSurfer


    Multo autem ad rem magis pertinet quallis tibi vide aris quam allis



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,407 ✭✭✭✭King Mob


    The last thing you claimed was "interesting" came from a complete anti-vaxxer crackpot.

    I think "interesting" is code for "some stuff I found on Twitter and didn't bother to look into".



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,737 ✭✭✭SafeSurfer


    One has to acknowledge that there may be differences in what individuals find interesting. That doesn’t make them wrong.

    For example I may find the history of the Corby Trouser Press and its inspiration from Concorde design interesting. You may not. However that doesn’t mean that I or others are wrong to find it interesting.

    Multo autem ad rem magis pertinet quallis tibi vide aris quam allis



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,407 ✭✭✭✭King Mob


    Yes, but usually around here, "interesting" means as I said.

    It certainly is interesting how Robert Kennedy is so utterly wrong on every level about vaccines and other health measures. It's interesting that people who on one hand want to be taken seriously and get upset at being called conspiracy theorists and cry censorship also give a platform and endorse such a rabid, embarrassing anti-science kook.

    Perhaps that's what you and sean mean by interesting.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,737 ✭✭✭SafeSurfer


    I’m not familiar with Robert Kennedy. However I see the danger in not questioning consensus, the dismissal of scientific dissent and the effects this has on public health.



    Multo autem ad rem magis pertinet quallis tibi vide aris quam allis



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,231 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe



    Interesting new development


    "Newly released genetic data gathered from a live food market in Wuhan has linked Covid-19 with raccoon dogs, adding weight to the theory that infected animals sold at the site started the coronavirus pandemic, researchers involved in the work say.

    Swabs collected from stalls at the Huanan seafood market in the two months after it was shut down on 1 January 2020 were previously found to contain both Covid and human DNA. When the findings were published last year, Chinese researchers stated that the samples contained no animal DNA.


    That conclusion has now been overturned by an international team of scientists. Their analysis of gene sequences posted by the Chinese team to the scientific database Gisaid found that some of the Covid-positive samples were rich in DNA from raccoon dogs. Traces of DNA belonging to other mammals, including civets, were also present in Covid-positive samples.

    The discovery does not prove that raccoon dogs or other animals infected with Covid triggered the pandemic, but scientists presenting the work to an expert group at the World Health Organization on Tuesday believe it makes that more likely.

    “The data does point even further to a market origin,” Prof Kristian Andersen, an evolutionary biologist at Scripps Research in La Jolla, California, told Science magazine. Andersen attended a meeting of the WHO’s scientific advisory group for the origins of novel pathogens and is working on the data.

    The recently uploaded gene sequences were spotted by Florence Débarre, an evolutionary biologist at the French National Centre for Scientific Research. She alerted Andersen and Prof Michael Worobey, an evolutionary biologist at the University of Arizona, who have both written papers providing evidence of a market origin for the pandemic."



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