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Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,578 ✭✭✭Field east


    Is there any proof that these numbers are actually conscripted? Just because Putin says so does not mean that these numbers are actually achieved.

    Also, There was an ex army / university ‘war’ expert interviewed a day or two ago on a TV news programme and was asked how did he think the war was going. He based some of his comments on the ‘FACT’ that Prikogen’s/(Wagner leader) communications line has been cut off, is not getting a sufficient supply of arms from the Moscovy army, etc, etc. I have a very strong feeling that Wagner could be spoofing so I was very surprised that he swallowed the Wagner line ‘hook, line and sinker



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,484 ✭✭✭Fighting Tao


    Or maybe the real number of mobilised is higher. A low ball number wouldn’t worry too many, but if it was multiple of that then the population could get riled up a bit.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,578 ✭✭✭Field east


    That could also be the case but trying to compare now to when millions were conscripted by Moscovy in previous wars is not on for the following reason. Telecommunications was non existent in previous wars so one ‘state’ within the USSR did not know what the other ‘state’ was being subjected to re numbers conscripted, no body bags being returned, no lost in action, etc, etc. on top of that all ‘ states ‘ within the USSR were 100% subjected to whatever the USSR wanted to to tell the Moscovy population.

    It is TOTALLY different now as at least some % of the population in each ‘state’ have a mobile phone - so there is a real possibility the information from the field/frontline is instant re videos, photos, actual conversations, etc. So all ‘ states must be aware of what is happening in the overall picture - as word of mouth spreads like wildfire starting from those with mob phones.



  • Registered Users Posts: 923 ✭✭✭ilkhanid


    The Russians have the advantage in both men, tanks and artillery. When they decide to press their assault and concentrate their resources on one particular point it is likely that they will prevail..eventually. What is striking is that a power once touted as the second in the world is not able to open secondary fronts or even to quickly crush the enemy at their chosen focus of attack. The Ukrainians have the advantage of nimbleness and agility but they're not able to use these advantages in a slugging match like Bakhmut. But if the Ukrainians can bleed and sufficiently exhaust the Russians they will be able to gain the initiative at a time and place of their own choosing. Ukraine doesn't have the resources to fight everywhere, it has to choose where to stand, where to concede if it wants to eventually win.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,324 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    That's an interesting point for sure, and one worth considering if we treat that prior posters bad faith remarks about who's "winning".

    Russia, were it truly in the ascendancy, would have opened a second, third front and stretched the more limited, exacting Ukrainian resources. Instead Russia and Wagner are laser focused on this charnel house while - presumably - Ukraine contemplates and builds up for its next counter attack. Probably too soon to include those 13 Migs they got from Slovakia but who knows.

    You'd wonder what all those wonks in West Point and similar would make of the Russian "attack", how the Pentagon will reassess the strength of this former power; I can't remember to whom it would be attributed, but I read a comment that Russia's approach to Bahkmut is like trying to win a €1 million lottery by buying €2 million worth of tickets. It feels rather apt.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    @ilkhanid The Russians have the advantage in both men, tanks and artillery. When they decide to press their assault and concentrate their resources on one particular point it is likely that they will prevail..eventually.

    They have lost over 60% of it's entire tank fleet ,they have lost inexcess of 150 in Vuhledar alone recently,and it's becoming well documented that the Russians are running out of munitions and men while Russia had feared artillery the Ukrainans have a handful of HiMars systems which they have used to devastating effect against Russian bases and forces inside Ukraine,

    Meanwhile the Ukrainans are increasing their forces , artillery,tanks and modern IFVs as well as receiving training and live 24/7 intelligence from the US and Nato,

    Russia has no real advantage in Ukraine and the Ukrainans have yet to start a major counter offensive yet ,



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,159 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    What will be crucial is if China gives substantial military aid to Russia. This will change the balance and mean that Russia can prolong this war indefinately..



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,304 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    Except China can't afford to lose the Western markets by providing that (or their already weak economy will shut down even worse than it's already is). That's why they are dancing around the topic. Don't get me wrong they are BSing around it such as sending 2000 AR-15 assault rifles as "hunting rifles" etc. but not at the level Russia would require in terms of actual heavy equipment etc.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,324 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    China's economy is not so strong it could resist sanctions coming its way; we've already seen small rebuffs of Chinese brands like TikTok or Huawei, and the last thing Beijing would want is to tie itself to Russia so much the glare of sanction swing towards it in full. Relations with Washington have been fractured of late enough as it is. Plus Beijing will have seen the net effect of sanctions on Moscow, and the wealthy class in China won't want that at their doorstep. I'm sure some backroom deals will be done, but they'll want to be very careful they're not seen to be arming Russia.

    I'm not sure what possible peace plan China thinks it can fashion that Kyiv and its various allies might accept it. Maybe, maybe, they think they can bribe Russia to basically switch their vehicles into reverse gear, get some assurances from Kyiv they'll leave Crimea alone, and everyone can walk away "happy"?



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,159 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    I don't know. Perhaps they won't risk their economic links with the West which would surely occur but then again they may fancy their chances. Many didn't expect Putin to invade Ukraine because of the strong EU business Russia had (Gas piplines, Oil etc.) Hopefully Xi is more careful.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 25,741 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    Less psycho rather than more careful I would say.

    Xi doesn't seem to have the same level of pure vain madness as Putin (maybe someday though as it gets to them all)



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,534 ✭✭✭amandstu


    Is Xi's game to threaten the West with invading Taiwan if they do not agree to some of Russia's demands ?

    Do they think that they can subsume Russia into their zone of influence and use it to further their own interests?


    Do they think enabling the war to drag out will weaken the West militarily,economically of just in terms of cohesiveness?



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,324 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    The thing is, I think China genuinely wants to be what America is now: the Honest Broker and primary power in the world's diplomatic circles. "Soft power" supreme, while also carrying the big stick. There's some argument they're already there or thereabouts, but that's another thread entirely. Obviously things like Taiwan is a big question mark, but that's a weird geopolitical situation where everyone seems to be happy to just keep pretending the situation doesn't exist?

    Russia doesn't have those pretensions - not in any diplomatic sense IMO. Happier to shakedown than shake hands, the great gamble by Putin a failure; that the EU would be held back through threat of the gass being turned off. Russia is, and this war is ably reminding us all, nothing more than a retrograde bully state; kleptocratic to the Nth degree and at no point in history has ever really shown the nous beyond Bigger Army Diplomacy, coupled with the hubris of its naturally large territory.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,044 ✭✭✭patnor1011


    Those MIG's from Slovakia are sad story actually. They were decommissioned in august 22 since they were not airworthy anymore. Three out of 13 are missing engine. 9 of remaining 10 do have semi repaired engine however their engines are well past the end of their technical service life and that is why they were grounded. They will have value only if ukrainians can find some spare RD-33 and replace them. There is a reason why they are being transported there by train.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,324 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    Oh really, well that aspect didn't get mentioned in the various reports. I wonder did Kyiv know this about the MiGs upon receipt - and if they did what they plan doing. Cos it's that or they just got delivered a load of spare parts so the Slovakians can pat themselves on the back. You'd like to think given these EU states' proximity to Russia they treat these donations seriously?



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,812 ✭✭✭✭bear1


    I do think the US needs to sit down with China and go through their plan.

    At the very least, show they are open to some sort of peace plan. We need to start somewhere before this gets even worse.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,044 ✭✭✭patnor1011


    Because it is more of a PR stunt than any meaningful help. There was no receipt, MIG's are still in Slovakia and will remain there for some time since logistics needs to be tackled somehow as planes are not airworthy. There is also interesting fact at the play that they were maintained by russian company which left after fighting started. As far as I know, there are some issues that some rather critical parts in them jets are actually russian property and only leased. These particular parts must be either dismantled or their export needs to be OK'yed by russians and I somehow doubt they will be willing to do it.

    It is rather sort of a test case to see what russian response might be before someone will try to give ukrainians some real planes. It was first pompous announcements about jets for ukraine but when reports about their state started coming out it was sort of downgraded that they can at least use them for spare parts.

    And you are spot on on the part of Slovakians being happy. There was talk about selling the load of them few years back for 300 millions but nobody wanted them for that price yet Slovakia is going to receive up to 900 millions in cash and equipment as replacement now. That is some business deal. (I think it was 200M euro from the EU and 700M $ worth of military equipment from uncle Sam, sorry uncle Joe).



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,883 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    I dunno patnor, if you have right info there with all the details you are posting, surely you are joking when you write about asking some Russian miltary company (or Russian govt!) for an "OK"? 🤡

    The same Russia where entire fleets of aircraft can be robbed, and all assets of Western companies expropriated (or forced to be sold for a low-low special one off price) on the orders of the regime?

    I get the point though. When you typically follow a code or at least try to stick to the spirit, people such as Russian regime/its leadership who do exactly what they like think you are a fool who can be bent over and twisted every which way by citing the law, while they wipe their arse with it themselves!

    Post edited by fly_agaric on


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,044 ✭✭✭patnor1011


    This isnt any special source of info but various articles, politicians comments and parliamentary debates from out there. They are not desired sort of a news so not many of them get picked by international press and translated. Few were but are stuck behind paywalls.

    I am not going to debate who is in the right but proprietary stuff is being closely guarded and despite everything what was or is being said even Germans, US and some other countries outright refused help Ukraine with certain weapons and other weapons systems were stripped of some parts before sent there.

    Thing with Russian company maintaining Slovakian fleet of MIG's (even though it was grounded some time ago) was that they were still providing services and government refused to reveal exact amount they paid them due to confidentiality. There is speculation that it was in excess of 50 million euro a year. Nice junket if you maintaining planes which cant fly anyway. Those planes while technically Slovak property were fitted with parts which were only leased and are property of that Russian company. Nobody want to say if the parts are still there or if thy were taken away or made unusable. A lot of speculation about that but the fact that said planes can not fly suggests they may not be there or working.

    You only need to look at Russo/Ukro grain deal which is happily functioning despite them killing each other just a couple hundred kilometers away. This war is buusiness like every other war and kept alive by powerful business entities which are making tons of money in the process. All that on expense of people who are losing their life there and on the dime of taxpayer of every country involved in it because of sanctions and "donations".

    True, Russia confiscated planes and bunch of other stuff but other part of the conflict did pretty much the same. Confiscated properties, yachts, businesses and money all over the world...



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,044 ✭✭✭patnor1011


    Here is one such example aside from grain deal. There are many more but this one is particularly interesting since it is a country seen as the most hawkish due to their involvement.




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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,108 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Hmmm




  • Registered Users Posts: 8,444 ✭✭✭jmreire


    Very interesting read, from some one who has experience in dealing with Russia. Its a little long, but well worth it.

    https://realcontextnews.com/the-post-putin-world-will-be-so-much-better-than-this-one/



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,883 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    Am a long time reader/poster and I think I know your opinion on these matters (as regards who is "in the right" in this war) anyway.

    I would not have said that grain agreement is "happily" functioning on either side + Russia and Ukraine are all brotherly about it from what I have read (in that international press). Ukraine wants it of course, Russia is not that pleased about it I would judge and would prefer to be sinking Ukrainian shipping.

    However Erdogan/Turkey have thrown weight behind it and want it to succeed. Russia badly need Turkey for many things, the "list of alllies" (well to be more exact powerful countries that can offer them meaningful, serious help sustaining this assault on Ukraine such as maintaining export earnings and busting the Western sanctions) "grows thin" of late.

    Shítting all over the Turkish efforts and angering Erdogan is probably not a sensible strategy for Russia but given the massive arrogance the Russian leadership seem to have, the whole thing collapsing (due to some act of violence) is certainly possible

    This war was started and is being kept alive by Russia, not desires of some shadowy evil "business interests" or Soros, or free masons, or the jews or whatever else! I guess you mean "Western" business interests when you say that of course, not Russia's business interests like benefits from resources and new land some of the top leadership & oligarchs may secure for their personal enrichment if/when Russia's military can conquer Ukraine.

    It is not quite the same (Russian and Western "confiscations" of the others property). I think Russia signed all those aircraft over to its own carriers immediately and they are busy flying in Russia now (I don't think they can leave it, am unsure if even likes of China really want to handle them at their airports??). Just bald faced theft or maybe piracy.

    The Russian assets in the West are in limbo now, they have unfortunately not been expropriated/liquidated yet. That may never happen, or may vary in different countries depending on legal and political systems etc. as well as (possibly) the outcome of the war. It will be a slow process anyway vs Russia and its efficient system eh!



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Remix News aka the Viktor orban press ,

    I'd take that article with a large pinch of pink Himalayan salt



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    @patnor1011 have you a link to that story about the Slovakian mig 29s



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,044 ✭✭✭patnor1011




  • Registered Users Posts: 3,044 ✭✭✭patnor1011


    Please, kindly refrain from nonchalantly tossing around terms like "shadowy evil "business interests" or Soros, or free masons, or the jews or whatever else". These are your own words and honestly if that is your try to discredit simple fact nobody can dispute that war means business then you need to try harder.

    For the record, this is what I said. I never mentioned anything you said in any of my posts.

     This war is business like every other war and kept alive by powerful business entities which are making tons of money in the process.

    In regard to your long time reader/poster instincts and subsequent try to label people in some pro or anti camps I hate that I am going to disappoint you. I do not care about Ukraine or Russia and their real or imaginary grievances. Every war is idiotic exercise and watching this latest one is even more sad. Mainly when you see how people are easily duped like with this MIG wonder story.

    Post edited by patnor1011 on


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,044 ✭✭✭patnor1011


    Sure and yet simple google query confirm data from that article and suddenly no salt is needed. It is strange that you spend time checking messenger but not the message. Or perhaps that is a way so you can close your eyes and ears to the facts you do not like.



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    A pro russian leaders personal media outlet posts an article about Poland you know it's completely biased and highly likely fake news.

    Orban is a putin puppet ,



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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,534 ✭✭✭amandstu


    "I do not care about Ukraine...."

    pretty clear.



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