Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Wonder how many SVR Illegals in Ireland? We have weak counter-intelligence, like Slovenia.

But what can they do differently?

Their elite forces are dead. Their mercenary forces are dying and under rogue control anyway. The quality of their recruits and conscripts is abject and even if it wasn't, these people don't want to fight for Putin and they are deployed under coercion and under threat of reprisal against their families, with basically no training.

Their armour is gone. Their fighter bombers and attack helicopters have been massively depleted. Their artillery and longer range missiles have been almost depleted and as an economy, Russia doesn't have the capacity to replace them effectively and quickly.

It absolutely doesn't have the technology to repair and replace the digital systems that comprise and run their command and control network and more advanced weapons systems.

So my question to those who think there is a risk, or indeed a liklihood of Russia turning this War around would be; how?

Fair enough, although it's worth pointing out that Leopard 1 tanks, which Ukraine are using, first came into service nearly 60 years ago themselves, and this is probably a point being raised on Russian propaganda networks. A point we would counter with service history and retrofitting of new equipment being more important than a tank's mere age. Therefore, when we say that Russia is putting out 70 year old tanks, it's just worth qualifying that with whether they're deploying them exactly as they had been when they were mothballed.

The quality of life in Poland was not great either a few years ago, but after joining the EU, that has all changed. Its a different country now, as proved by the Nrs that left the UK after Brexit, and the EU generally during Covid, but did not return. Any ex- USSR Country has the same story to tell. And this is one reason why Putin invaded Ukraine, not because of NATO, but because he did not want the same success story emanating in Ukraine. It would have been like the horses looking over the hedge at the lush green fields next to them, while trying to survive on the poor grass in their own field. For sure, depending on how long the war drags on, a certain % will put down roots here in Ireland and remain, but for many, Ukraine is their home, and their history and that's where they will return too. I remember meeting a Chechen on flight one time while in Russia, He was returning back home to Grozny, after spending more than 10 years in Miami. When I expressed my surprise that anyone would swap the life in the US for the life in Chechnya, with the war in full swing, and the city leveled from the Russian bombing, he explained, that yes, the life in the US was indeed very good, he had made a lot of money, but his real life was in Chechnya, with its traditions and culture. And his place in Chechen society was more valuable to him than Life in the US,

I don't think Putin has that much control over Russian minds that he can spin a victory out of what of Ukraine Russia currently holds. If he did, he could nearly tell them that Russia already won the war and leave it at that. There are obviously motivations for him to truly realise the territorial ambitions he had on 24/2/2022 and he has invested so much into it, that I very much doubt he can call it a day now. And even if he could spin it all rosy on the domestic front, the external realities remain the same - Ukraine still stands, Russia remains under sanction, Russia looks weak and inept. Putin may be able to live with the sanctions - wear them as a badge of honour, even - if the other things were not so, but they are, and he knows it.

It's not so much being in Ukraine which is the goal, then. Sounds more like it is simply to stay in power. Considering he was essentially being made leader for life before the invasion proper began and considering that Russia were already in Ukraine before the official invasion began, it sounds to me like what Putin is attempting to do here is a bit redundant.

If Mussolini were alive today, one thing he could tell us is that war is not the ultimate tool for a fascistic leader to remain in power. Thankfully he's not around today - mainly because no one lives to the age of 140, but also because his people strung him up a long time ago.

Putin's power is already getting publicly challenged by the likes of Prigozhin. I think there's at least much risk of creating rebellions via a failing war effort as there is of keeping them under control with a winning one.

Ukraine is protected by a tiny handful of air defence systems. The Orcs have massive air superiority which they have held back. They also have been waging a large and ceaseless espionage effort to locate those very few air defences. If the Orcs were to overwhelm and/or sabotage them, then they could take out Ukraine's western supply routes, their remaining and outmatched aircraft, and then the could level all their cities from high altitude and with the large number of inaccurate missiles they still have.

This is why I am so concerned by the abject stupidity of Biden and his advisers in not providing modern western fighters, as they are the one and only thing, barring direct western involvement, that might prevent such a scenario. Ukrainian pilots should have been in the west training on F-18s, 8 months ago.

And why have the Orcs held back their air forces?

Because they are gone. Shot down, blown up, failed and broken down.

If they had them, we'd have seen them by now, because true air superiority would end the War in a week.

Lot of talk of what Russia has in regards air power and absolute crickets as to why they're not using it (or cannot use it) to any extent which turns the tide of war.

Any answers about that?