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General Irish politics discussion thread

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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,219 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout



    This is part of the fallout of the collapse of Anglo Irish Bank. Back in the Celtic Tiger era they were the ones providing the finance for all of the apartment blocks that were built before the crash. After their implosion there isn't really an avenue for developers and builders to get large financing. That's why we have seen so much of four things being built:

    • Hotels
    • Offices
    • Student Accommodation
    • Build to Let Apartments

    What do they all have in common? Private money is supplying the finance for them.



  • Registered Users Posts: 27,910 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    The examples you list are all within walking distance of either the DART, the Luas or the N11 bus corridor. Some are close to areas of high employment like Sandyford.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,998 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    Fair enough, but im still not happy that the vast majority of new units being built in Dublin and seemingly across the country are build to rent as its not going to help solve the larger issues that the housing crisis is a big symptom of and thats our aging population and that less and less younger people are interested in starting a family.

    We are maybe a decade behind the rest of Europe in regards to our pension time bomb and once this particular ball is rolling its going to be next to impossible to stop and thats because the solutions needed to be started running 10+ years ago.

    Yes its not just an Ireland problem but the fact anyone can look at where Japan are as regards their demogrpahics crisis and then see this map and not think "hmm maybe we should start focusing all our attention on this issue" is baffling to me. Also that map makes things look far better for us than it actually is as we should never measure anything using GDP due to how skewed ours is, so when adjusted to GNP were basically side by side with the rest of Europe on this issue.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,219 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    That map really hits home why the French government are trying to get those pension reforms passed.

    It would be interesting to see the UK number since one of the reasons why our number is so low is that we exported a lot of our members of the Silent Generation to there in the '50s.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,385 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    But how many units in Dublin will be build to rent? Probably a drop in the ocean compared to the amount of semi detached and terrace housing in Dublin.Dublin is just packed full of semi detached houses/terrace housing suitable for families. They aren't going to disappear.

    The argument is that these apartments will free up family houses currently being used by 3 to 5 adults renting in a house.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 17,998 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    The ratio of new build to rent apartment developments vs new housing from my casual observations in those same areas is easily at a 5:1 ratio. We need more of everything but all we are getting seemingly is build to rent apartments which is simply squashing the middle of the market into rental and screwing the bottom by not allowing any effective movement up the property ladder into realistic family home ownership..



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,998 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    Ohh absolutely I get why people are annoyed about it but there is no realistic short term alternative. Long term many things can be done to help but it requires stop gap short term solutions like raising the pension age. Problem with that is in France and here the only solutions being enacted are the short term ones.

    Also ignore our 4% as I said GDP comparisons don't work for us, its likely at least 10% when compared to GNP which is the more accurate and realistic measure for Irelands economy



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,936 ✭✭✭PeadarCo


    Build to rent are only an issue if it stops other types of housing being built. As has already been pointed out Build to rent attracts a different type of builder/investor/buyer. If institutional investors invest in build to rent accommodation its great news for the country. Its money that doesn't need to lent by Irish banks or spent by the government increasing the amount of money available for housing and other things. Remember their is only so much that Irish banks can lend to the property market(remember the last crash) and the government also has limits due to increasing interest rates that will feed into government borrowing over time.

    You need to show that these build to rent harms the housing market/stops housing getting built otherwise you are just complaining about companies/people spending money on housing in the middle of a housing crisis.

    Certain areas of Dublin and the country in general are going to attract more build to rent because they are flat out more attractive for renting. Many of the places you mention in previous posts are ideal. At this stage places like Sandyford,Dundrum and anywhere pretty much inside the M50 is inner city for housing purposes. It's not the 60s/70s, the days they were suburbs of the edge of the city are long gone and the residents of those areas need to accept that. They are also ideal for high density housing as you don't have the architectural issues that the historic city centre has and still have great transport links.

    While the rents are relatively high that's a function of the lack/decreasing amount of rental accommodation available. The country needs institutional investors to replace the large number of small landlords that are leaving the rental market. Get a new rental anywhere in a half decent in Dublin you will face relatively high rent regardless of the landlord/lessor and quality of accommodation.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,198 ✭✭✭Good loser


    That's delusional. Selling to cash in on capital gains is only one of many reasons why landlords sell out; of course SF and the Left wrongly claim it to be the main/only reason as that suits their narrative - that increasing rules/regulations/laws have nothing to do with landlords being in a headlong retreat from the market. In fact so terrified have landlords been of these impositions that their confidence in getting a fair deal from the State is shattered plus the fear of what further regs are coming down the line. More power to them for pulling out.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,198 ✭✭✭Good loser


    Excellent contribution. Says it all really about the institutional buy-to-rent multi stories.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 26,511 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    UK pension expenditure is about 5.5% of GDP.

    Very little of it would be accounted for by Irish emigration to the UK in the 1950s — to be blunt, the generation that emigrated in the 1950s would by now be mostly dead. The impact of immgration from Ireland on UK pension liabilities peaked about 15 years ago and has declined considerably since.

    The main reason for Ireland's apparently strong position in the chart above is, as VinLieger points out, our rubbery GDP figures. The Dept of Finance modelling on this issue uses GNI* rather than GDP; on their figures pension expenditure is projected to rise from 7.4% of GNI* in 2019 to 11.9% in 2050 and 12.3% in 2070 (assuming no change in pension age). These figures include both social welfare pensions and public sector occupational pensions. If you're just looking at social welfare pensions, the expenditure as a % of GNI* is modelled as:

    2019: 5.8%

    2050: 9.9%

    2070: 11.3%



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,806 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Watching the debate on the confidence motion would not make you think the Government has the reasonable majority for the motion that it almost definitely has.

    Eamon Ryan is stumbling and battering on about environmental achievements; various FFG backbenchers making an Enoch, sorry, scene to get noticed on camera as if they are posturing for an election.

    FG ministers all have scripts written by the same person/team - "the opposition have no monopoly on compassion" and "I have great respect for the Labour Party" have turned up in every single speech as far as I can tell

    Holly Cairns isn't a great Dail performer. Don't think that really matters anymore.

    Catherine Martin also talking about other Green Party measures as her main thing, not the actual motion - she's actually run out of time without mentioning housing at all!

    Post edited by L1011 on


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,998 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    How do those projections make sense? by 2040 we are projected to have at most a 3:1 worker to retiree ratio vs the 5:1 we have now and theres no scope for that turning around.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,806 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Hourigan, MacSharry and a smaller than I expected number of Independents voted for the Government so they had a very healthy margin. Really makes the borderline rattled state they were in even odder.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,103 ✭✭✭Glaceon


    I moved into a new housing estate in Drogheda in the last 6 months. There's four apartment blocks in the development. Of the four blocks, two were bought up by a REIT and units in them are being let for 1800 to 2000 a month! For Drogheda I think that's obscene money but they'll probably still get it as is the need for housing.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,219 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout



    Hourigan & MacSharry not looking to burn their bridges so



  • Registered Users Posts: 26,511 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Apples and oranges: the projections express the pension obligation in relation to GNI*. Ratio of retirees to workers is a different matter.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,998 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    I know but one should absolutely affect the other to some degree or at least more than those you posted. It seems to me that the pension obligation and GNI projections are completely ignoring our worker to retiree projections. While the former is basically just educated guesswork the latter is not as we know how many children have been born vs how many many people will be hitting X age already.



  • Registered Users Posts: 27,910 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Not exactly, the projections will change based on migration which fluctuates quite wildly as we have seen over the last year.



  • Registered Users Posts: 26,511 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    As Vin points out, the dependency ratio depends on future migration patterns. And the pension obligation/GNI* ratio isn't just "educated guesswork"; we know how many people are in the active workforce now and what pension entitlements they have already accrued and will accrue between now and the age they reach 65. so we can model pension obligations up to 40 years out quite accurately.

    Sure, the changing dependency ratio is an issue we need to confront, but nothing about the changing dependency ratio suggests the the modelling of the pension liability is wrong. The signficance of the dependency ration is not, how does it affect the size of the pension liability? (It doesn't affect it at all; my accrued pension entitlement will be the same whether I have one child or ten, and the same is true for every other worker.) The dependency ratio affects how well-positioned we will be to pay the pension liability.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 68,806 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Scope given to the boundary commission (well, the body that has replaced that) is 171-181 seats. I would think they'll go high to set baseline boundaries for future growth; if they've any sense - changing boundaries majorly every election like happened in the 70s-80s is extremely disruptive.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,806 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    The Supreme Court has found that the non-implementation of the 7th Amendment - extending the Seanad University franchise to all Irish graduates - is unconstitutional and it must be fixed by the next Seanad election

    My English degree is probably still going to be worthless, but I'll have an Irish one by the summer, assuming I actually get some stuff submitted in time this weekend and don't get distracted by politics :pac:



  • Registered Users Posts: 34,901 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    Wow, I'm amazed that that was challenged especially after so long.

    How does "Provision may be made by law for..." oblige the Oireachtas to do something though?

    The Dublin Airport cap is damaging the economy of Ireland as a whole, and must be scrapped forthwith.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,747 ✭✭✭PommieBast


    So... They took 34 years to notice this little detail? Need someone to fill me in on the history..



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 39,749 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    My mother didn't have a Seanad vote whereas my late father had two! There needs to be a lot more done to reform the voting system for the Seanad.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,806 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    More that it took 34 years for someone with the standing (you'd need to be a disenfranchised grad to challenge it) and resources (some lawyers/barristers deciding that this was something worth making a name for themselves on) to do it really.

    I know plenty of people with two votes due to a degree in NUI and a postgrad in Trinity or v/v. Also know a Councillor with that so they get 7! (the 5 other panels)



  • Registered Users Posts: 34,901 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    I don't mind people having two votes provided they vote for anyone but that snivelling little shít Ronan Mullen! 😁

    He only gets in because of all the doctors of divinity from NUIM - Priests!

    The Dublin Airport cap is damaging the economy of Ireland as a whole, and must be scrapped forthwith.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,548 ✭✭✭political analyst


    Most young people in the Republic don't have strong views either way on the Troubles. Why is Mary Lou not putting distance between Sinn Féin and the Provisional IRA?



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,330 ✭✭✭Francis McM


    There were reports in the Irish Times and the Guardian etc in the not too distant past that said both the Garda and MI5 say Sinn Fein is still run by the IRA.

    I am not saying if they were right or wrong. I know nothing.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 68,848 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Because if she did she would be accused of whitewashing.

    The IRA is indeliably linked with SF, why would they distance themselves?

    They committed to an 'exclusively peaceful path' as Gerry Adams called for in 1998 and the final report of the International Monitoring Commission in 2015 had this to say

    the commission believed the IRA was on an exclusively political path.

    ...

    The IMC’s report concluded that the IRA’s so-called military departments had been disbanded and its former terrorist capability had been lost. In addition, its army council was by conscious decision being allowed to fall into disuse.

    “PIRA [the Provisional IRA] had in these ways completely relinquished the leadership and other structures appropriate to a time of conflict,” it found.

    While a small number of former IRA members had given assistance to dissident republicans, it said this was not surprising following the dissolution of organisation’s structures.

    On the issue of leadership, it found that in addition to “maintaining its clear stance against all forms of terrorist activity and involvement of members in crime”, the leadership continued in more specific ways to demonstrate its commitment to peaceful means.

    I.E. They did what they were asked to do, involve themselves in democratic politics.



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