Russia - threadbanned users in OP

I agree with most of this except why differentiate?

The formula is simple: DPR = RU. They are two sides of the same coin. Not even the Russians pretend any different now!

I think that's a good analysis and, unfortunately, it's the external risk factors you note in points 4 and 6 that are the key ones.

@johnnyskeleton You're not seriously suggesting that they execute POWs are you?

No. And I am against mistreatment and cruelty which leads to no good anyhow. I am not saying POWs should be killed. I am saying it is ok to kill them if, in the heat of battle, it is too costly to keep them and risk Ukrainian lives in doing so. The expression I used was 'it's ok' - with caveats of course.

This is not just a war, it is terrorism on an industrial scale. A horde of criminals led by a cabal of bat-sh1t crazy warlocks in the Kremlin. I don't blame the Ukrainians for getting angry.

The way things are looking now, seems that the major Russian players know that the war is lost, and even if it drags on, its only delaying the inevitable, so the jockeying for lead position has already started, primarily amongst the military. Prigozhin has announced that he's pulling out, and moving to Africa, (he's thinking ahead, and wants to conserve his army for the coming internal war of succession) ditto. Kadyrov. He is also not doing anymore fighting for Putin. Again, he's conserving his military. And the same goes for Shoigu, and Gerasimov. Plus there are a few billionaire Silovicki with their own private military forces. They are not going to lose Russia's wealth without a fight.

It's almost impossible to predict but if I were to choose I would go for a combination of scenarios #2 and #4. There will be a de-facto split (I don't know where exactly - that'll depend on how successful the upcoming Ukrainian offensive is. Perhaps back to Jan 2022 fronts). It won't end the conflict though.

While Putin is in power Russia will continue to try and undermine Kyiv in any way, shape or form. So that'll be everything from spies, disinformation campaigns and bullying of other countries as well as constant smaller attacks. They will very likely try and rebuild their armed forces for another serious assault as soon as they can.

Putin is obsessed with not looking weak so he will want to come back with an iron fist as quickly as possible. The key then for Ukraine will be to get some kind of security guarantees from third party countries or even organisations. That may not be possible but it is their best hope of long term stability. If they cannot achieve that then the next best thing will be to get as much military materiel and as many trained troops as they possibly can.

Not Russia just occupied by Russians

No, it's different.

You need to separate the military (going badly for Russia and Putin) from the political (no opposition, total control) spheres.

Alexi Navalny is the Kremlin's choice of opposition leader to Putin if the needs ever arises for the Kremlin ever to appoint an opposition leader to Putin and the Presidency.

Kremlin's choice as, as @Wibbs pointed out before Russia and the Kremlin are no ordinary Western like state. If the authority doesn't like you. You're dead or suicided. Simple as.

He's the Kremlin schooled opposition leader if the need arises.

Really? the

1905 revolution must have been a 'joke' then too, by that metric.

There is no such opposition today.

The population seems to be divided into the "patriots" who swallow the media narrative and the majority who have checked out entirely and are in a state of learned helplessness. A lot of a third category who were anti-Putin have already fled the country. At the same time Putin has been savvy enough not to mobilise too much from the areas of Moscow or St Petersburg. In short, I cannot see a mass uprising. The only alternative is a palace coup and even that seems difficult given how famously paranoid Putin is when it comes to his own personal safety.

How do you see him being toppled?

I think you're expressing confirmation bias in your thinking here.

We'd all like the above outcome. It doesn't mean things 'can only end' that way.

The eventual political settlement is likely to be messy and unsatisfying (for both sides).

The problem with a messy and unsatisfactory settlement is that it's not so much a conclusion as a pause in the fighting. Russia won't give up its ambitions on Ukraine so long as Putinism remains its dominant ideology and likely seek to revamp its military and then bide its time.

It may be that a negotiated settlement requires Ukraine to cede some territory, maybe with the proviso of an internationally-observed referendum in these regions, but if Ukraine cedes territory, it will surely seek to come under the NATO umbrella in some way, and quickly, in order to make sure as possible that no further Russian aggression takes place.

There is no confirmation bias, only facts.

The orcs started this war off with their elite VDV and T90 tanks and have regressed to raw conscripts and T54's today. At the rate we're going they will be down to T34's and OAP's within a year, and that is if they are even able to sustain a war effort that long.

Ukraine on the other hand only get stronger and stronger. More troops getting NATO training, more weapons systems, more ammunition factories delivering. They are the ones fighting to save their country, they have stronger morale and the will to win.

Ukraine are winning this war, and they are taking back all the temporarily occupied orc territory. I am certain of this.

I don't think any Russian propaganda is making the case that I am proposing?

All I'm trying to do is inject some critical thinking. I get that the predicted outcomes may not be to everyone's liking - it doesn't mean they are the result of successful Russian propaganda!