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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,712 ✭✭✭✭briany


    The Russians will be in Kyiv by...

    ...uh...

    Anyone remember that song "In the Year 2525"?



  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 14,502 Mod ✭✭✭✭johnnyskeleton


    So Ukraine attacking a fortified position is a bad move, theyve lost too many men, cant repeat last year's victories and Russia will settle in for a longer war / frozen conflict.

    I cant gainsay his military analysis, other than to note that the Kharkiv offensive was opportunistic based on spotting weakness so they can maybe repeat that. If the opportunity doesnt present, they could take it. If not, maybe its best not to attack.

    I wonder was the time to strike in early winter, even if the weather wasnt favourable and the troops were tired? The option now might be not to attack, at least not on a large scale.

    I do think he is maybe overestimating Russias ability to sustain a protracted war. They can do so at small scales in transnistria, south ossettia etc where its a case of supplying a few thousand militants. Supporting the Russian army in indefinite field operations is a different scenario.

    The question then is who breaks first, Russia or Ukraine. I would hope Ukraine will remain supported for another few years. Failing that, they will try to survive without international assistance.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,374 ✭✭✭SortingYouOut


    I'm not sure if you meant to respond to me or not?

    Beverly Hills, California



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,427 ✭✭✭✭Say my name


    Ah now see what you did now Mr.Putin.

    Now they all want to follow Ukraines example and breakaway as far as possible from your rotting corpse of a nation.

    *PooTin envisaged this however and took these areas young male population for the meet grinder in Ukraine.

    Braincells are firing in many areas now cos of Mr PooTin.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,343 ✭✭✭Jinglejangle69


    Also states Ukraine will have little to no air support for the counter.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 16,571 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett


    The problem is that both sides are now heavily dug in. Any attack will be quickly spotted from miles off, the artillery and anti tank gunners open up and the attackers have to run the gauntlet of heavy fire before they can even engage the enemy positions.

    A recent failed Russian offensive in Vuhledar.

    A recent failed Ukrainian offensive near Bakhmut.

    How does any side break this deadlock without taking significant casualties? I've struggled to see any quick conclusion to this war for a long time unfortunately.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,712 ✭✭✭✭briany


    Analysts like Michael Clark and you yourself have predicted that Ukraine will attempt to fight a war of mobility because obviously grinding attrition warfare only really suits one side, or that is to say that it suits one side quite a bit more than the other. If Ukraine can drive a wedge between Russian forces and hold their lines, then it puts Putin in a pickle, especially if that wedge is to the southern coast. He loses the land bridge and therefore the last thing he could really settle with, and the political pressure will begin to mount more severely. If Russia attempts to bunker down for a frozen conflict situation, could they keep it frozen if and when Ukraine takes a consignment or two of Abrams tanks or any of the more sophisticated weaponry that it will take a longer time to train on?

    People talk about how the Russians get when they smell blood. By the same token, if Ukraine launch a counteroffensive that makes good gains, then I see no great impediment for more and better weapons to come to Ukraine if the country's leadership and people continue expressing a will to fight.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,427 ✭✭✭✭Say my name




  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Finland has been ratified by the Turks for Nato membership,

    Essentially Finland are now a NATO members,

    Turkey are currently holding the swedish application up until Erdogan gets what ever he wants from Stockholm



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Another month another Russian round of conscription for another 150,000 men/ soldiers.

    What's the last count at .





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  • Registered Users Posts: 18,492 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Francie

    The game changes come spring. Spring is always late in Russia/Ukraine. The ground will not harden until mid/late April.

    How do you defend a thousand kilometers front. Ukraine is waiting for hard ground. Russia is now down to T70/60 series tanks. They will lack mobility

    This war will turn to a hard fast interaction. Technology will be what it is all about. Russian anti tank guns are immobile even if they have them

    The Ukrainian's stopped the Russian offencivies with obsolete anti tank weapons (well that and flat Russian tyres). NATO tanks will have been tested against these weapons.

    June will tell a story

    Remember

    BAKHMUT HOLDS

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users Posts: 59 ✭✭SteHam




  • Registered Users Posts: 18,492 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,652 ✭✭✭greenpilot


    I don't know if many of you watched this, but the retired Col. Broached the subject of Ryssia using a tactical Nuclear weapon. He mentions that while he was stationed in Europe, including as recent as 2014, US troops have already trained for such an action. He points out that the US will be seen to bat the horror of a nuclear detonation aside to apply a swift and devastating conventional response, that would both end the war, and change the World order in one foul swoop. The US cannot be seen to be held to ransome by threats of a nuclear detonation. If so, then every little despot will either get one or try to get some nuclear weapons.

    If a US/NATO response is a devastating conventional attack to take out the entire Russian Navy in the Black Sea( which he says is possible), all assets in Ukraine and any other threats within Belarus and Kaliningrad, then the world, especially the neer-do-wells, as he calls them, will see them as useless, and even counter-productive from the perspective of using them as a threat.

    The Col. mentions that the US knows this and is why not much is ever made upon Putins nuclear threats. In fact, I'd say the US would relish the opportunity. The entire conflict would be over in a week.



  • Registered Users Posts: 260 ✭✭Strand1970


    OK, but I am sure Russia would say **** it and launch everything they have in every direction. I don't see this as being a clean operation of only Russia being destroyed. The Russians won't use nuclear weapons but if they did then we are all goosed as neither side would back down.



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    But yet every day Russian aircraft are bombing Ukrainian positions or launching attacks on Ukrainan cities, from outside the air defense systems, Russia still has hundreds of aircraft and pilots no matter what one or two YouTube videos say,and they still have a large amount of artillery systems in place, ukraine will face difficulties trying to move large numbers of vehicles and armor across open area's



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Agreed. I know Russia is his home, but every time I see him reporting from Russia (where you can get arrested for carrying a rose or holding up a blank piece of paper) I'm expecting to see him get his collar felt. He's an Anglo Russian (could probably apply for citizenship) with Russian/Belarus heritage and has a life there. It's not like he's a jobbing journalist, but he's playing with fire.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,802 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    Ukraine won't be placing their most expensive AA system remotely close to the border with Russia, let alone the Frontline.

    Assuming Ukraine will be using the PAC-3 version, that only has a range of 60km.

    So Russia would still be able to launch air attacks on the frontline or stay within Russian airspace launching glide bombs or cruise missiles freely. Patriot system won't prevent that unless they place it on the Frontline (highly doubtful) and the US allows Ukraine target aircraft within Russian airspace (doubtful also)



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,802 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    The claim Russia can hit moving targets with a glide bomb is laughable. Unless Ukraine adopt Russian tactics and travel in a slow single column or park up side by side over night etc.... But as one poster once said, if you don't know the Russian's actual target, how can you know they missed!

    As for other AA systems Ukraine can free up, I'd hope they have mobile ones that can move forward with a counter offensive.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,515 ✭✭✭roosterman71


    I'm sure that's the intention, and I'm equally sure Russia know that is the response. Then 2 things pop into my head. If Russia launch one and the response is as you said where Russia is going to be pummelled, wouldn't they then launch more before they could be destroyed. Go down in flames if ya like. Then if that's the case, wouldn't it make more sense to launch everything upfront before a US/NATO response? I'd be shocked if they just launched one initially knowing what was planned as retalliation



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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,969 ✭✭✭Christy42


    That is the point. Unless they reach the point where they are willing to launch everything no launch will be made at all. So unless Russia wishes to destroy Russia nothing will be launched. Plus if the US sees one launch it will immediately assume everything is being launched and accordingly. For all the craziness in Russia they don't want to go down, in flames or otherwise. So the US is confident that all the bluster about nuking somewhere or other that doesn't agree with the Russians is just PR.



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    They are getting three ,

    They can't and won't be able to cover the whole country, look at Russias latest tactic Smaller scale missles,and drones and the Ukrainans are shooting a fair few down some missles are getting through,but the biggest question for the air defense systems how much ammunition does ukraine have for it's systems considering they are active most days



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,652 ✭✭✭greenpilot


    That's exactly why the current thoughts of the US is that Putin would never use one.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,440 ✭✭✭jmreire


    Major shortage of essential building components, one reason being that only factory in the region capable of manufacturing the parts is in Ukraine, and the Russians bombed it. The irony of it!!!



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,986 ✭✭✭rogber


    There are some total fantasists on this thread. Without a doubt Russia would hit back. It would lose, definitely, but could do devastating damage certainly in Europe before that point. Thankfully I don't think Russia will pull that trigger. If Putin and his cronies care about one thing more than national pride, it's money and luxury, they want to keep their lifestyle



  • Registered Users Posts: 260 ✭✭Strand1970


    Where is the best site to get an up to date map of what's going on in Ukraine. I generally look at war mapper.



  • Registered Users Posts: 530 ✭✭✭Baba Yaga


    i especially like the bit that says 'special funding opportunities'


    "They gave me an impossible task,one which they said I wouldnt return from...."

    ps wheres my free,fancy rte flip-flops...?



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,155 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    Maybe it's time to embrace our inner Gen. Turgidson?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Day 401 of a 3 day invasion



This discussion has been closed.
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