FF/FG/Green Government - Part 3 - Threadbanned User List in OP

I posted about Spoofers. Check it.

And I believe we have seen your posting style before. Carry on.

But above all things, don't answer the question I posted. Either of ye. God forbid ye would answer a direct question. 😂

There may be an Ireland Thinks/Sindo poll due on Sunday. The March poll had the SocDems on 9%. It will be interesting to see if that is sustained. It typically underestimates FF support compared to pollsters using face to face polling like B&A and Ipsos.

For reference, the last %s were:

SF 29% - FG 21% - FF 19% - SocDems 9% - Greens 4% - Labour 3%.

It will be interesting to see if the Greens take a hit over the eviction ban and also the way that Neasa Hourigan was treated. FF, it seems, couldn't really give a damn about opinion polls. If it is worse than expected, there will be seas of electrons wasted by FFG spokespeople on Social Media trying to downplay it. It is funny the way that some Labourites have tried to reinvent themselves as Green only to have the Greens also decline in the opinion polls.

Regards...jmcc

The Dail is in recess until April 18th. It is not like anything important is happening until then. Despite it being business as usual for the Dail, the optics for FFG, at the start of a period where homelessness will increase due to the decision taken by FFG are bad.

https://data.oireachtas.ie/ie/oireachtas/parliamentaryBusiness/other/2022-07-14_provisional-calendar-of-dail-sittings_en.pdf

Regards...jmcc

Overcrowding has become a year round crisis now. A legacy of FFG inaction. How many times must health professionals cry for help before there is real action?

INMO press release today

Runaway hospital overcrowding is becoming new normal (inmo.ie)

“There hasn’t been a day in the last two weeks where trolley numbers have dropped below 545. It is clear to our union that ridiculously high trolley figures have become the new normal.

“The INMO has long been raising our concerns about the devastating impact this level of overcrowding is having on nurses and their patients with all levels of HSE management. It is clear that the current approach to tackling hospital overcrowding is not working.

“The HSE and Department of Health need to stop treating runaway hospital overcrowding as a surprise, this level of overcrowding was and is entirely predictable. Post bank holiday backlogs are not new, they happen each time and it is clear that many hospitals are not preparing properly.

“Our members have made it clear they cannot continue to work in these conditions year-round with absolutely zero reprieve. Real, tangible action must be taken to radically reduce hospital overcrowding.

Excellent post.

Tomorrow the ‘actions’ of this government’ May result in many families becoming homeless. I hope when the next election comes around that everyone remembers what ‘parties’ have been in power since the foundation of the State.

Just a quick question you have said a few times before on here you are a journalist and a member of the NUJ.

Any chance they could run a campaign in April for paragraphs?

Another record broken by FFG

Number of homeless single adults in State hits record high – The Irish Times

Number of homeless single adults in State hits record high

A slight fall in homelessness last month shows the eviction ban “was working”, homelessness charities said on Friday, amid warnings the State was about to “enter a new phase of homelessness” as the ban is lifted from Saturday.

The latest data published by the Department of Housing shows the number of people accessing emergency accommodation in the State fell slightly in February to 11,742 – a drop of 12 individuals from the previous month – but numbers continue to increase in Dublin.

The figures, published on Friday, also show a new high in the number of homeless, single adults of which there were 5,736 – the biggest number since current records began in 2014.

During the week of February 20th-26th there were 8,369 adults and 3,373 children in emergency accommodation. Among these were 1,599 families of which 876 (53 per cent) were headed by lone parents.

These numbers represent a 23 per cent increase in the total number of homeless in a year – from 9,492 in February 2022. The number of families in homelessness has risen by 35.5 per cent in a year – from 1,180, while the number of single adults has gone up by 17 per cent, from 4,907.

Roughan MacNamara, head of communications with Focus Ireland which leads the NGO response to family homelessness, described the Government’s pressing ahead with lifting the ban as “heartless” and the “failure to listen” to homelessness organisations on the issue as “deeply alarming”.

The effects of the ending of the evictions ban could be mixed. FFG support will probably take a hit but, surprisingly, Labour might benefit slightly along with the SocDems. The SocDems support is firmly concentrated in what is "Generation Rent" and in Holly Cairns, that demographic has a very good spokesperson. There was always a soft/floating vote that drifted between FF and Labour. Some of that vote will be in play. The younger part of it may be moving to the SocDems but some may move back to Labour if it drops the Identity Politics stuff and concentrates on real issues that affect voters (Homelessness and Health, obviously). At the moment, there seems to be two Labour parties. The first is the genuine Labour that cares about workers and real issues (possibly the Local Government element). The second is a more Middle Class Labour that aspires to be the equivalent of the British Labour party but would support Fine Gael in heartbeat if it would have them (the Oireachtas element). Ever since FF and Martin Cullen ended the dual mandate, it has caused a split for a lot of parties by making the natural progression from Council to Dail more difficult.

If the rise of the SocDems is sustained, then FFG have a problem on the same scale that FF and FG had with the emergence of the PDs in the 1980s. The PDs, while being Provisional Fianna Fail, conveniently found that income tax had become a major election issue. 'Many of those who voted PD were being hit with the highest rates of income tax so a kind of demographic concentration of voters existed. The SocDems have a similar concentration in the age demographics most affected by the Homelessness/Rent issue. If FFG don't do something quickly, then it is going to see a drift to the SocDems among younger (non-landlord, of course) supporters and floating voters. Given the differing polling methodologies, the indications will be, along with the stabilisation of the SocDem around the 8% to 13% range, the consistent polling of both FF and FG below 20% across all pollsters.

@Ha Long Bay I don't ever recall saying that I was a member of the NUJ. You may have to take your campaign for real paragraphs to it directly.

Regards...jmcc

I do like the ‘ignore list’

Regards…jmcc

Ireland Thinks/Sindo poll:

SF 31% - FG 22% - FF 16% - SD 7% - Greens 4% - Labour 3%.- Independents 10%

Bad news for FF (-3%), FG gains 1%. SocDems down 2% to 7%. No change for Greens and Labour. The SocDems increase seems to be holding and was not completely due to a new leader bounce. The Labour party conference had no effect. This is another poll that has shown FF losing support. MoE +/- 3%.

No movements for the Independents. That's odd given the votes in the past week.

Regards...jmcc

42<58.

FF may be looking at a leadership change soon. FFG is now going to be reamed by the Independents on every major vote for fear of forcing a GE. And the evictions crisis hasn't even started to gain momentum yet.

Regards...jmcc

FF needs to dump Martin quickly. He's become an anchor around their neck as they sink in the polls. The problem is that there is not much talent in FF. It would have been interesting to see Lisa Chambers as leader but Martin's incompetence lost a lot of seats for FF instead of gaining them in 2020. O'Callaghan might be a possible replacement but even his seat is in danger. Calleary has been absent from the headlines though given the recent Ditch reports, that could be a good thing.

Labour, had it been led by competent politicians, would have been hoovering up the support that FFG is losing. However, it is poorly led and that support is drifting to SF and the SocDems. The SocDems seem to be a very urban party and that could cause a lot of problems for FG (FF still has strong rural support). It is too early to know if there will be a kind of Spring Tide for the SocDems.

The next poll is a B&A poll and its methodology is generally FF friendly (face to face polling). If there's anything like that 4% drop from the last one then it will create a panic in FF as backbenchers start to worry about retaining their seats. FFG could fracture before the Summer recess. It is now dependent on Independents because some FFG backbenchers might decide to protect their seat rather than vote for the government.

Regards...jmcc

The Indenpendents may sell their votes dearly to gain things for their constituencies but some of them who voted with the government will be under threat in the next GE. A few may even be genepool FF or FG.

Calleary was taken out of the limelight with Golfgate but he had been slowly edging his way back. He may appeal to FFers but there's a lack of presence about him. Defending Martin is probably something that no FFer really wants to do at the moment because it will make them look bad as well.

Regards...jmcc

Do people who would have more clued into politics than me think the Government will last for 2 more years?

Housing shortage and now the eviction ban being lifted seems to be a nightmare they just can't wake up from, I'd imagine it will only get worse when the actual evictions start happening.