FF/FG/Green Government - Part 3

The expectation is a November 2024 election. They'll hold on as long as possible but are apparently keen to avoid an election around Christmas, or in the depths of winter in Jan/Feb. November will let them do a big giveaway budget and then in theory run the election in the afterglow of that.

I can't see it collapsing before then. Even if the Greens pulled out tomorrow the government would probably have enough support (at a price) from the rural / regional independents to keep going.

The housing crisis is projected only to get much worse before then, though, yeah. We're not building enough houses per year to make a dent in the crisis even if we were adding no more people than our natural increase. We need to be adding 50k+ housing units a year to do that and this year it'll be closer to 25k according to projections. And thats not even accounting for the close to 100,000 refugees we took in last year and the similar number projected for this year - they would require 30k new housing units a year just to house them all by themselves. Which is more than were built last year or will be built this year...

Only if Martin doesn't run IMO. SF will surely be targeting a second seat in Cork SC. McGrath doesn't come across as a plotter but he may find himself in a situation where he needs Martin not to stand to hold his seat and the only way to make that happen is to force him out as leader. Of course the same end would be achieved if someone else replaces Martin but he may be the only senior figure willing to make the first move against Martin...

Therell be no second seat in cork south central for SF imo theyll lose the seat they have

Thats completely inaccurate, the parties and independents currently not in Government are not homogeneous.

You've a short memory of the 4 months Sinn Féin spent trying to form a Government after the 2020 election and failing at every turn.

Its 42>31, or 42>19, or if you get creative and coalesce Sinn Féin with the loony left, its 42>34.

I can't say if Sinn Féin will be part of the next Government or not, but I'm fairly certain that Fine Gael will be as the anchor of the centre.

Of course it will, because for it to collapse, one of the three parties would have to want to face an election as a consequence of pulling it down. And right now, none of the three do.

FG are happy enough to keep pushing policy along, FF want a chance to build their numbers a bit and the Greens know if they went to the Country now (especially if the election was blamed on them) then they would disappear from the Dáil.

There is work to be done yet, but overall, Housing won't be any worse in a year's time than it is now. It may even be a bit better. Its not the only game in town, however much Sinn Féin would push the narrative that it is.

You're right about none of the parties wanting to face an election. But very much wrong on the housing crisis getting better unfortunately. To expand on the figures I mentioned above:

According to the government figures there were 29,851 houses built in 2022. But according to other sources its actually 23,751[1]. The truth was probably in the middle. This was actually down year on year in the last quarter, and projections are for only 27,000 units (using the government measurements) to be completed in 2023[2]

The Housing commission estimates Ireland needs 42,000 to 62,000 housing units built a year[3] merely to meet demand - not to reduce the existing crisis.

Then on top of this, excluding more 'normal' immigration, Ireland had close to 100,000 arrivals last year between Ukrainian refugees and asylum seekers. A similar number are still arriving each month this year as last, so we'll likely have a similar number for 2023. With an average number of people per house of 2.75 they would require approx 35,000 housing units being built per year just to house them.

This adds up to us needing 75,000-90,000 housing units needed to per year. Which means in 2022 we were at a *deficit* of 45,000 to 65,000 housing units. And the predictions are the same for 2023...

The figures are very clear - the housing crisis is going to get a lot, lot worse before it gets better.

[1]https://businessplus.ie/news/new-houses-built/

[2]https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/economy/arid-41091943.html

[3]https://www.irishtimes.com/ireland/housing-planning/2023/01/26/ireland-needs-almost-double-amount-of-new-builds-in-housing-targets-research-finds/

You asked me on the previous page whom I will vote for if not Labour, to which I answered.

I asked you who you will vote for, but for some reason you never replied. Would I be right to assume based on your comment here that you will vote green?

Okay I'm not well versed on who is applying taxes but I think I’d be right in saying the greens are forcing carbon tax on a litre of fuel?

Which taxes?

The carbon tax? That was introduced in 2010.

I am trying to think of a tax introduced by the Greens in this Govt. Please remind me.

ah shur tis fcuked, and nobody knows what to do next!

...not really, it was fairly obvious that this was the most likely outcome, and its probably gonna get much worse to, we re clearly experiencing a catastrophic failure

Yes perhaps it was introduced in 2010, but being increased year on year.

This from the last budget:

https://selectra.ie/energy/guides/billing/carbon-tax

I never said it wasn’t but the greens were in power in ‘22.