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Time for a zero refugee policy? - *Read OP for mod warnings and threadbans - updated 11/5/24*

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  • Registered Users Posts: 18,466 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    I've a feeling people are conflating our high net immigration rate with intake of refugees. Our non national population (EU citizens, non-EU citizens here on work visas etc) is definitely on the high side compared to many European countries. Not exceptionally high, but high enough.

    But our refugee population prior to February 2022 was nothing out of the ordinary, arguably rather low in numbers compared to many EU states per capita. The main thing that has changed has been the arrival of 75,000 Ukrainian people in the last 13 months.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    Newsflash: Someone who has been granted asylum is not an asylum seeker



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,991 ✭✭✭trashcan


    As I explained, all asylum seekers are approved to stay in the country, albeit temporarily. If their claim is approved they become refugees.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    My God. You're still at it. 15k were not granted asylum in 2022.

    You can go on the IPO and look at their stats, you're peddling false figures.

    If you want to have this conversation, and you want to have it in good faith, use accurate terms, and use accurate figures.

    They're all there at your fingertips, but you either refuse to use them, or just concoct your own reality to suit yourself. Up your game, seriously, because nobody wants to listen to someone conjuring fake stats out of their backside.



  • Registered Users Posts: 490 ✭✭beeker1


    More blacks , More dogs , More Irish ! An entire generation gets that ! And I'm more than willing to discuss, even wrapped in racism !



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  • Registered Users Posts: 41,062 ✭✭✭✭Annasopra


    Where on earth are you getting figures that 15,000 people were granted asylum in 2022?

    13,300 applications for asylum were made.

    The number of applications made does not equal the number of applications granted.

    In 2021 39% of decisions on applications were succesful so 61% of applications were turned down.

    It was so much easier to blame it on Them. It was bleakly depressing to think that They were Us. If it was Them, then nothing was anyone's fault. If it was us, what did that make Me? After all, I'm one of Us. I must be. I've certainly never thought of myself as one of Them. No one ever thinks of themselves as one of Them. We're always one of Us. It's Them that do the bad things.

    Terry Pratchet



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    He's pulling it out of his backside and making it up as he goes along.

    He hasn't settled on if he wants to rag on asylum seekers or those granted asylum. He'll conflate the two and then separate them in his head depending on how he's floundering. In fact, I'm not sure he knows the difference or cares.

    Asylum seekers / refugees / migrants - they're all the same intechangable terms to him until they're not.



  • Registered Users Posts: 41,062 ✭✭✭✭Annasopra


    The numbers in that post make no sense whatsoever.

    That post shows no understanding of the difference between the number of asylum applications and the numbers of people granted asylum.

    It was so much easier to blame it on Them. It was bleakly depressing to think that They were Us. If it was Them, then nothing was anyone's fault. If it was us, what did that make Me? After all, I'm one of Us. I must be. I've certainly never thought of myself as one of Them. No one ever thinks of themselves as one of Them. We're always one of Us. It's Them that do the bad things.

    Terry Pratchet



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    You said granted asylum. There most certainly was not 15k granted asylum via the IPO last year. You're making it up, own it.

    I suggest you take a time-out and actually do some reading and verse yourself in the subject. All the figures are there if you want to take a look at them - but the problem is they don't suit you.

    It's not possible to have a good-faith conversation with someone who concocts figures out of thin air and then tries to slither out of it with "oh no, I mean this not that" when pulled-up on it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 490 ✭✭beeker1


    As they say , Lies , Damn lies & statistics , what about those bigots blocking Dublin Airport the Last few Sundays



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  • Registered Users Posts: 18,466 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    I totally get that the sudden massive influx of Ukrainian people on top of a severe housing crisis has freaked many people. It would have been much better had this happened at a time when there was no housing or accommodation crisis.

    I suppose though those behind the Ukrainian influx would argue that war in Europe in 2022/23 is an extraordinary one off event and unprecedented for a prospective EU candidate member. To put it in some context, the numbers of people displaced by the Russian invasion are much, much higher than was seen in Syria in 2015. It's difficult to predict just what will happen vis-a-vis Ukrainian refugees in the next year or two. We don't seem to be at the point yet where the government would announce it has simply run out of emergency accommodation for them.

    Having said all that, the numbers of Ukrainians we have taken in is not 'massively' out of kilter with other similar sized European countries. Portugal has accepted 55,000, Finland 47,000, Denmark 40,000 and Norway (not even an EU member) has taken in 35,000. Like ourselves, none of these countries have any particular political or cultural links with Ukraine.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,616 ✭✭✭maninasia


    I even gave you the article , but you 'don't believe it', even though you were too lazy to check yourself. The article even breaks the numbers down for you.


    Approx 80,000 ISPS (Ukranians) and 20,000 asylum seekers have entered in the last year to 13 months. The number given in the article is 96,400.

    There isn't anything controversial in that number. You just 'forgot' about all the Ukranians also living in private accommodation.


    Meanwhile ignored all my key points which are easily verifiable.


    I intensely dislike people like you who say I am lying but don't provide anything to back it up. Everytime you accuse me of lying I will flag your posts unless you provide evidence.


    Shut up or put up yourself.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    Total International Protection applications in 2022: 13,651

    For the first two months of 2023: 2,137

    Direct from the IPO statbank, your numbers aren't adding up I'm afraid. You can try to gild the lilly with 13 month years and "approx" that rounds up to the nearest 10 thousand, but you're forgetting that all of this information is easily accessible.

    Edit: Ukrainians entering Ireland in 2022 (from CSO based on PPSN issuances): 67,448 - another egregious rounding error from yourself.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,616 ✭✭✭maninasia


    75,000 or 80,000 Temporary ISPs (Ukranians) came in since the Ukranian war started. Give or take a month or so.


    You are busy playing foolish gotcha.


    LOOKS LIKE you don't want folks to know the scale of the numbers coming in for some reason, approx twice the number of those going to Denmark, Portugal, Norway etc


    Why is that?



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    I've no interest in hiding anything, only verifiable data. The CSO had 67k Ukrainian arrivals as of December 2022. You can accept reliable statistical reporting or go off on a conspiratorial mad one, up to yourself.

    Of that 67k, the CSO reported that 87% were active in administrative data, which would suggest that 13% of that figure either returned to Ukraine or went elsewhere in Europe (perhaps reuniting with family in another EU state or UK).

    Does data p*ss you off or something?



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,616 ✭✭✭maninasia


    We are now in early April.

    The Russian invasion of Ukraine started on Feb 24th.


    Figure it out and stop playing silly gotcha games, people aren't stupid.

    Once again you post NO links, I have posted my reference.


    The CSO figures ACTUALLY say more than 75,000 Ukranian ISPs have arrived here in less than a year.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/ireland/social-affairs/2023/02/24/cso-says-number-of-ukrainian-refugees-in-ireland-nearing-75000/#:~:text=The%20number%20of%20refugees%20fleeing,Central%20Statistics%20Office%20(CSO).



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    There's no gotcha.

    What accounts for the makey uppey 20k figure? Even if we take your magic 13 month year, that's quite the rounding error. 6 or 7 k asylum seekers magic'd out of nowhere. As you say, people aren't stupid. No one is interested in hiding anything, but there is evidently an interest in some quarters in puffing up figures.

    P.S, the cumulative CSO arrival figure since the start of the Ukraine war is 74k since the beginning of 2022 to latest stat release, not 80k. That's another 6k counjured out of nowhere. You're giving new meaning to the term "fakefugees". You'll have a satellite town of Dublin full of non-existant refugees before you know it.

    We may as well round up the population of the country to 6 million while we're at it. #mathsbymaninasia



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,616 ✭✭✭maninasia


    You were caught out badly with those outdated CSO figures you quoted.


    Updated CSO figures here.


    "The ninth release in its regular monitoring series, published on Friday, shows 74,458 Ukrainians had come to Ireland as of February 12th, measured by the number of Personal Public Service Numbers (PPSNs) issued."


    That means we are at approx 80,000 Ukranian ISPs now, 13 months after the war started.


    That's a huge number whichever way you look at it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    🤣

    Right, like I said, 74k cumulatively since start of 2022 until latest stat release. You're still pulling 5.5k out of your backside. Where are you getting your 80k from?

    You're extremely bad at numbers.

    While I have you, are you going to explain your makey-uppey 20k figure?



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,616 ✭✭✭maninasia


    I caught you out with your own silly gotcha game, it wasn't difficult to be honest.


    The numbers are plain to see, approx 80,000 Ukranian refugees (ISPs) since end Feb last year. The stats are the OFFICIAL CSO numbers.


    That's a **** load of refugees/ISPs for a small country with a massive housing, health and schooling crisis.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    🤣

    I'd take another read of that if I were you. The 74k figure is cumulative from Feb 22 to release of stats. Are you actually being serious? There's even a big honking graph.

    You've pulled the 80k out of your rear. That figure is nowhere to be found in any CSO stat release, it's a figment of your imagination.

    And again, the stat release shows 83% have administrative activity after Nov. '22, which suggests 17% of that 74k are elsewhere in Europe or have returned to Ukraine.

    This is some craic. Maninasia and the phantom refugees. He sees them here, he sees them there, he sees them everywhere. But don't expect him to count correctly.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,616 ✭✭✭maninasia


    You aren't interested in folks knowing the real numbers coming in.

    Approx 80,000 Ukranian ISPs have arrived since Feb 24th 2022. Irish CSO figures.


    But with you It's always an attempt at finding a smaller number.


    Why is that exactly?



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    Just to help you out, in table 4, the CSO for pig iron sake has provided an estimate of how many Ukrainian arrivals still remain in the state. This is based on the following: Latest activity either address change with DSP, welfare payment pickup from a post office, attendance of an Intreo event, host receiving accommodation payment, active employment, or PAYE payment from employment.

    The estimated figure remaining in the state is *drum roll*... 61,844 people

    Not quite you're fake makey-uppey 80k is it?

     



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,616 ✭✭✭maninasia


    You seem desperate to try and reduce the numbers from different angles.

    Why?



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    This is CSO data, modelled, verified and compiled by professional statisticians. You're pulling numbers out of your backside. There's the difference.

    The more pertinent question is why are you concocting fake numbers?



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,616 ✭✭✭maninasia


    The record stands here.

    Folks can see what you up to plain as day.


    You were trying to use the lower numbers from the outdated CSO stats until I caught you out at it.


    Everytime it's an effort to reduce the numbers from the stats selectively.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    🤣

    The record stands that you're making up fake numbers all over the shop.

    Your 80k and 20k are made up hogwash, you tried to pawn them off on people and got filleted for your trouble. By CSO estimate, the number of Ukrainians remaining in the state is 31% less than your made-up number.

    Your asylum claim numbers were proven to be utterly fake as well. Zero-credibility poster.



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,466 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    But keep in mind that France has taken in much higher numbers of 'non' Ukrainian refugees than we have - many hundreds of thousands. I believe the likes of Norway, Sweden, Denmark and Finland are the same too : higher numbers of other refugees in the last few years but lower numbers of Ukrainian people. So, there may well be an element of swings and roundabouts to the whole thing.

    It wouldn't be entirely true either to say that this is an EU led initiative. Countries like Switzerland, Norway and Moldova have taken in significant numbers of Ukrainian people, despite not even being in the EU. I'm sure the exact same arguments are going on there about pressure on services, housing and infrastructure.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,616 ✭✭✭maninasia


    Those Scandi countries have had enormous problems with refugee integration and are very hardcore in turning folks back including legal migrants too.


    As for France Paris is an awful mess with refugees around tourist sites hassling visitors.

    How many refugees has Denmark taken in over the last few years?

    In the end instead of playing silly gotcha games it's self evident that we CANNOT HANDLE the numbers coming in.


    This is on top of massive existing legal immigration.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    "This is on top of massive existing legal immigration"

    Maninasia about to give us his figure for the "massive existing legal immigration"....




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