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Time for a zero refugee policy? - *Read OP for mod warnings and threadbans - updated 11/5/24*

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  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    He's pulling it out of his backside and making it up as he goes along.

    He hasn't settled on if he wants to rag on asylum seekers or those granted asylum. He'll conflate the two and then separate them in his head depending on how he's floundering. In fact, I'm not sure he knows the difference or cares.

    Asylum seekers / refugees / migrants - they're all the same intechangable terms to him until they're not.



  • Registered Users Posts: 41,065 ✭✭✭✭Annasopra


    The numbers in that post make no sense whatsoever.

    That post shows no understanding of the difference between the number of asylum applications and the numbers of people granted asylum.

    It was so much easier to blame it on Them. It was bleakly depressing to think that They were Us. If it was Them, then nothing was anyone's fault. If it was us, what did that make Me? After all, I'm one of Us. I must be. I've certainly never thought of myself as one of Them. No one ever thinks of themselves as one of Them. We're always one of Us. It's Them that do the bad things.

    Terry Pratchet



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    You said granted asylum. There most certainly was not 15k granted asylum via the IPO last year. You're making it up, own it.

    I suggest you take a time-out and actually do some reading and verse yourself in the subject. All the figures are there if you want to take a look at them - but the problem is they don't suit you.

    It's not possible to have a good-faith conversation with someone who concocts figures out of thin air and then tries to slither out of it with "oh no, I mean this not that" when pulled-up on it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,621 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    I totally get that the sudden massive influx of Ukrainian people on top of a severe housing crisis has freaked many people. It would have been much better had this happened at a time when there was no housing or accommodation crisis.

    I suppose though those behind the Ukrainian influx would argue that war in Europe in 2022/23 is an extraordinary one off event and unprecedented for a prospective EU candidate member. To put it in some context, the numbers of people displaced by the Russian invasion are much, much higher than was seen in Syria in 2015. It's difficult to predict just what will happen vis-a-vis Ukrainian refugees in the next year or two. We don't seem to be at the point yet where the government would announce it has simply run out of emergency accommodation for them.

    Having said all that, the numbers of Ukrainians we have taken in is not 'massively' out of kilter with other similar sized European countries. Portugal has accepted 55,000, Finland 47,000, Denmark 40,000 and Norway (not even an EU member) has taken in 35,000. Like ourselves, none of these countries have any particular political or cultural links with Ukraine.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,616 ✭✭✭maninasia


    I even gave you the article , but you 'don't believe it', even though you were too lazy to check yourself. The article even breaks the numbers down for you.


    Approx 80,000 ISPS (Ukranians) and 20,000 asylum seekers have entered in the last year to 13 months. The number given in the article is 96,400.

    There isn't anything controversial in that number. You just 'forgot' about all the Ukranians also living in private accommodation.


    Meanwhile ignored all my key points which are easily verifiable.


    I intensely dislike people like you who say I am lying but don't provide anything to back it up. Everytime you accuse me of lying I will flag your posts unless you provide evidence.


    Shut up or put up yourself.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    Total International Protection applications in 2022: 13,651

    For the first two months of 2023: 2,137

    Direct from the IPO statbank, your numbers aren't adding up I'm afraid. You can try to gild the lilly with 13 month years and "approx" that rounds up to the nearest 10 thousand, but you're forgetting that all of this information is easily accessible.

    Edit: Ukrainians entering Ireland in 2022 (from CSO based on PPSN issuances): 67,448 - another egregious rounding error from yourself.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,616 ✭✭✭maninasia


    75,000 or 80,000 Temporary ISPs (Ukranians) came in since the Ukranian war started. Give or take a month or so.


    You are busy playing foolish gotcha.


    LOOKS LIKE you don't want folks to know the scale of the numbers coming in for some reason, approx twice the number of those going to Denmark, Portugal, Norway etc


    Why is that?



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    I've no interest in hiding anything, only verifiable data. The CSO had 67k Ukrainian arrivals as of December 2022. You can accept reliable statistical reporting or go off on a conspiratorial mad one, up to yourself.

    Of that 67k, the CSO reported that 87% were active in administrative data, which would suggest that 13% of that figure either returned to Ukraine or went elsewhere in Europe (perhaps reuniting with family in another EU state or UK).

    Does data p*ss you off or something?



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,616 ✭✭✭maninasia


    We are now in early April.

    The Russian invasion of Ukraine started on Feb 24th.


    Figure it out and stop playing silly gotcha games, people aren't stupid.

    Once again you post NO links, I have posted my reference.


    The CSO figures ACTUALLY say more than 75,000 Ukranian ISPs have arrived here in less than a year.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/ireland/social-affairs/2023/02/24/cso-says-number-of-ukrainian-refugees-in-ireland-nearing-75000/#:~:text=The%20number%20of%20refugees%20fleeing,Central%20Statistics%20Office%20(CSO).



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    There's no gotcha.

    What accounts for the makey uppey 20k figure? Even if we take your magic 13 month year, that's quite the rounding error. 6 or 7 k asylum seekers magic'd out of nowhere. As you say, people aren't stupid. No one is interested in hiding anything, but there is evidently an interest in some quarters in puffing up figures.

    P.S, the cumulative CSO arrival figure since the start of the Ukraine war is 74k since the beginning of 2022 to latest stat release, not 80k. That's another 6k counjured out of nowhere. You're giving new meaning to the term "fakefugees". You'll have a satellite town of Dublin full of non-existant refugees before you know it.

    We may as well round up the population of the country to 6 million while we're at it. #mathsbymaninasia



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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,616 ✭✭✭maninasia


    You were caught out badly with those outdated CSO figures you quoted.


    Updated CSO figures here.


    "The ninth release in its regular monitoring series, published on Friday, shows 74,458 Ukrainians had come to Ireland as of February 12th, measured by the number of Personal Public Service Numbers (PPSNs) issued."


    That means we are at approx 80,000 Ukranian ISPs now, 13 months after the war started.


    That's a huge number whichever way you look at it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    🤣

    Right, like I said, 74k cumulatively since start of 2022 until latest stat release. You're still pulling 5.5k out of your backside. Where are you getting your 80k from?

    You're extremely bad at numbers.

    While I have you, are you going to explain your makey-uppey 20k figure?



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,616 ✭✭✭maninasia


    I caught you out with your own silly gotcha game, it wasn't difficult to be honest.


    The numbers are plain to see, approx 80,000 Ukranian refugees (ISPs) since end Feb last year. The stats are the OFFICIAL CSO numbers.


    That's a **** load of refugees/ISPs for a small country with a massive housing, health and schooling crisis.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    🤣

    I'd take another read of that if I were you. The 74k figure is cumulative from Feb 22 to release of stats. Are you actually being serious? There's even a big honking graph.

    You've pulled the 80k out of your rear. That figure is nowhere to be found in any CSO stat release, it's a figment of your imagination.

    And again, the stat release shows 83% have administrative activity after Nov. '22, which suggests 17% of that 74k are elsewhere in Europe or have returned to Ukraine.

    This is some craic. Maninasia and the phantom refugees. He sees them here, he sees them there, he sees them everywhere. But don't expect him to count correctly.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,616 ✭✭✭maninasia


    You aren't interested in folks knowing the real numbers coming in.

    Approx 80,000 Ukranian ISPs have arrived since Feb 24th 2022. Irish CSO figures.


    But with you It's always an attempt at finding a smaller number.


    Why is that exactly?



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    Just to help you out, in table 4, the CSO for pig iron sake has provided an estimate of how many Ukrainian arrivals still remain in the state. This is based on the following: Latest activity either address change with DSP, welfare payment pickup from a post office, attendance of an Intreo event, host receiving accommodation payment, active employment, or PAYE payment from employment.

    The estimated figure remaining in the state is *drum roll*... 61,844 people

    Not quite you're fake makey-uppey 80k is it?

     



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,616 ✭✭✭maninasia


    You seem desperate to try and reduce the numbers from different angles.

    Why?



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    This is CSO data, modelled, verified and compiled by professional statisticians. You're pulling numbers out of your backside. There's the difference.

    The more pertinent question is why are you concocting fake numbers?



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,616 ✭✭✭maninasia


    The record stands here.

    Folks can see what you up to plain as day.


    You were trying to use the lower numbers from the outdated CSO stats until I caught you out at it.


    Everytime it's an effort to reduce the numbers from the stats selectively.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    🤣

    The record stands that you're making up fake numbers all over the shop.

    Your 80k and 20k are made up hogwash, you tried to pawn them off on people and got filleted for your trouble. By CSO estimate, the number of Ukrainians remaining in the state is 31% less than your made-up number.

    Your asylum claim numbers were proven to be utterly fake as well. Zero-credibility poster.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 18,621 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    But keep in mind that France has taken in much higher numbers of 'non' Ukrainian refugees than we have - many hundreds of thousands. I believe the likes of Norway, Sweden, Denmark and Finland are the same too : higher numbers of other refugees in the last few years but lower numbers of Ukrainian people. So, there may well be an element of swings and roundabouts to the whole thing.

    It wouldn't be entirely true either to say that this is an EU led initiative. Countries like Switzerland, Norway and Moldova have taken in significant numbers of Ukrainian people, despite not even being in the EU. I'm sure the exact same arguments are going on there about pressure on services, housing and infrastructure.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,616 ✭✭✭maninasia


    Those Scandi countries have had enormous problems with refugee integration and are very hardcore in turning folks back including legal migrants too.


    As for France Paris is an awful mess with refugees around tourist sites hassling visitors.

    How many refugees has Denmark taken in over the last few years?

    In the end instead of playing silly gotcha games it's self evident that we CANNOT HANDLE the numbers coming in.


    This is on top of massive existing legal immigration.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    "This is on top of massive existing legal immigration"

    Maninasia about to give us his figure for the "massive existing legal immigration"....




  • Registered Users Posts: 4,616 ✭✭✭maninasia


    At least you got in a father ted gif.

    48,000+ residency visas granted for non EU in first 6 months of 2022. Another 3,000 through EU residency rights treaties.


    Now add in your EU legal immigrants along with UK folks, that's a lot of immigrants.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    Knock me over with a feather, that's simply MASSIVE,

    But, here's the problem maninasia: you're simply MASSIVE 48k figure for those 6 months isn't residency visas, they're visas granted of all types, which will include a significant amount of plain 'ol tourist visas (probably a majority) for visa-required nationals on short-term visits.

    😂

    You are too easy. For your own sake, do a bit of due dilligence before you hit the post button next time. Simply brilliant, cracking stuff out of you.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,616 ✭✭✭maninasia


    Sure the top visas granted were Indians, Turks, Chinese, Pakistanis, Nigerians and Filipinos and Turks, yeah they are the main tourists visiting Ireland...not.


    It is obvious the vast majority are for resident visas, students and working. Indians in particular have been flocking to Ireland, to study and work in healthcare in particular.


    That's at least 48,000 non EU in first half and probably similar in 2nd half 2022.


    Then you got 15,000 Brazilians moving to 'study English '. They aren't even included in those numbers !


    Pathetic effort again to try and downplay the numbers that have moved here.


    I'm not saying this is good or bad.

    But there has been large scale immigration into Ireland of non EU folks aswell as EU folks.



  • Registered Users Posts: 277 ✭✭Guildenstern


    Disregarding all the left/right arguments and who has the right numbers, essentially we have a large number of people arriving in a country at a time of such an accommodation crisis. Yes, we have had housing emergencies in the past but never to the stage of the level of dysfunction there is now evident in both the sale and rental sectors.

    In a country that to be honest doesn't do long term planning that well and a social support structure that is below average at best. Increase in population year on year, a poor policy framework or when good policies are put in place, they are just not enforced.

    Despite the best of intentions, Ireland while undoubtedly having the actual landmass, is still someway off being the modern European democracy it tries to project itself as.

    400 or so walking the streets should be a wake up call but it probably isn't. What if it gets to a thousand or even more. Are we just expecting people to stop turning up because word gets out we haven't got the housing in place?



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    100 percent wrong because visas in Ireland (much like Schengen) are for entry to the country only, be it short term for tourism / visiting family / conferences or possibly applying for a relevant "stamp" and IRP (which does confer a right to reside for however long).

    Visas do not confer residence rights and nowhere in your magic figures does it say so, because they are not resident permits.

    Once again, you're owning yourself and peddling bs.

    Fake numbers McManinasia they call him. Nobody is downplaying anything, you're just getting found out for making sh*t up.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,463 ✭✭✭rgossip30


    You are disageeing for the sake of it. I see the figure is 90 k for 2022 the link 96k its now 100k +.A deduction of 10k can be made for those Ukranians who have left as per CSO estimates.

    Post edited by rgossip30 on


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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,616 ✭✭✭maninasia


    Suuuuree the Indians, Turks, Nigerians and Filipinos are all tourists. Suurrre.


    Give it up Yurt stop insulting our intelligence.

    There was an absolutely massive increase in immigration in 2022.


    The State issued almost 306,000 personal public service (PPS) numbers last year, a significant increase on previous years, new figures have shown.

    A total of 68,884 PPS numbers were issued to Ukrainians and there was also a rise in the numbers issued to people from countries including:

    • India: 21,471 in comparison to 13,815 in 2021;
    • Romania: 15,581 in comparison to 14,036 in 2021;
    • Spain: 9,310 in comparison to 6,850 in 2021;
    • Algeria 1,488; in comparison to 169 in 2021;
    • France; 47,259 in comparison to 3,049 in 2021;
    • Brazil; 16,414 in comparison to 2,692.

    In 2021, the total number of PPS numbers issued was 174,525 despite restrictions on travel due to covid-19, and the figure was 132,001 in 2020. A total of 196,177 PPS numbers were issued in 2019, when no pandemic travel restrictions were in place



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