Tues 11th/ Weds 12th April 2023 strong winds, warnings likely.

UKMO is unrelenting in its depiction of what this might look like although could easily be still overdoing it at this stage, ICON back looking like ECM and UKMO, will see what the ECM looks like shortly. Still too soon to know exactly how strong or exact tract.

Actually the ICON 12Z much stronger than the 06Z and taking a similar route as the UKMO, different shape to it but the potential there for something quite windy now .

The GFS ARPEGE not showing it to such extent.

ECM back looking a bit more organised with two areas of Lp deepening/ merging but in a different place again , stronger winds but nothing extreme on this run.

Plenty of changeable charts to come, probably the hardest to model when formed of the Jet like that.

There is no doubt it over does the wind speeds some bit as does the UKMO. Lower again on the 18Z run from ICON.

More changes in the model output this morning. ARPEGE, GFS looking very windy at times Tues and Weds, UKMO's track takes the strongest winds offshore but windy also at times in places Weds, ICON windy Weds, ECM windy Weds but not extreme.

So GFS and ARPEGE have shifted the track of the system, which they are showing to be a complex arrangement of two areas of LP deepening over Ireland, ARPEGE at this stage keeping two center's whereas the GFS shows them to merge but both showing similar winds up there in the high Yellow and into Orange warning level but all subject to change.

Certainly no cross model agreement ,ECM , ICON and UKMO would have to come more inline to have any certainty but I would think that they are heading towards some spells of windy if not very windy weather.

Cant ignore how strong some of the models look on the latest runs but still not resolved, ECM will tell a lot soon. Probably one of the hardest things to model when an area of LP drops like a stone coming off the Jet . It would seem there is an area of LP forming rapidly with a wave off it forming rapidly also into another area of LP which in turn deepens rapidly. The two areas of LP more or less tied together and pirouetting around each other and possibly/ probably merging into a larger area of Lp in the end. So the timing strength, track is changing quite a bit but perhaps starting to see what this might resemble Tue /Weds.

ARPEGE, UKMO are showing storm force winds along coastal counties and overland. WRF- NMM very strong winds overland, GFS strong winds overland, ICON down on Tues but strong on Weds overland. ECM out shortly , earlier was showing bouts of windy conditions in the Yellow range.

So potential for a wind event with warnings of at least in the Orange level at times, widespread yellow. Hard one to forecast as there will be periods of strong winds, cyclonic in nature so coming from different directions.

Some heavy rain at times also and wind driven to boot. Very cold uppers so convective showers with hail and thunderstorms possible and maybe a bit wintry on high ground / Mountains.

ECM rolling out, not developing the system to the north of us as rapidly or as deep as the other models and that bit different also so not showing winds of note on Tues and strong winds overland Weds on the run in the Yellow warning range gusting 80 to 90km/h. Not resolved yet by far.

Met Eireanns forecast hasn't deviated much all day which would be at odds with tonight's ECM run for Tuesday. Very much holding onto the uncertainty phrase.

Met Eireann : Tuesday: Exact details are still uncertain for Tuesday but currently the forecast suggests southerly winds veering westerly will be strong and gusty with gales in some coastal areas. Rain will continue to extend northeastwards becoming widespread, and at times heavy, during the morning before clearing to showers later in the day. Highest temperatures will range from 7 to 11 degrees. Cold and windy on Tuesday night with widespread showers and gusty conditions at times. There will be a chance of hail and isolated thunderstorms and a few brief wintry flurries over high ground cannot be ruled out. Lows will range from 0 to 4 degrees generally.

Wednesday: Remaining windy on Wednesday with frequent squally showers feeding in from the west throughout the day. Some of the showers will be heavy with a chance for further isolated thunderstorms and hail and the showers may merge to longer spells of rain at times. Highs on 8 to 10 degrees in fresh to strong and gusty westerly winds. Cold and breezy on Wednesday night with clear spells and scattered showers, some of hail. Lowest temperatures of 0 to 4 degrees in fresh and gusty southwest winds.

Weather Warnings

Status Yellow - Wind warning for Clare, Cork, Kerry, Limerick, Galway, Mayo

• Met Éireann Weather Warning
• Very strong west to northwest winds developing. Widespread gusts of between 90 and 110 km/h expected, stronger in coastal areas and over higher ground. Wave overtopping in coastal areas.
• Valid: 01:00 Wednesday 12/04/2023 to 17:00 Wednesday 12/04/2023
• Issued: 10:58 Monday 10/04/2023
• 
  
• Northern Ireland Warnings

Yellow - Wind Warning for Antrim, Down

• UK Met Office Weather Warning (www.metoffice.gov.uk)
• A period of strong winds bringing the potential for some disruption later on Tuesday and perhaps into the early hours of Wednesday.
• Valid: 15:00 Tuesday 11/04/2023 to 03:00 Wednesday 12/04/2023
• Issued: 10:37 Sunday 09/04/2023
• Updated: 10:58 Monday 10/04/2023
• 
  

I edited the title as it doesn't look like this system will have the same impacts as earlier thought.

AROME showing blustery squally conditions later Tues sweeping up the country topping up the rainfall totals with heavy localized rainfalls. ICON captures this also to some extent.

European models a bit stronger, ARPEGE probably a fair average, very windy in the SW early Weds, windy and blustery across the country during Weds with heavy squally showers.