Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

This is why its difficult to compute the claims that property is overvalued by X%, when it couldn't even be built at the prices people deem reasonable.

Yep, crux of issue at the moment seems to be building is just too expensive. But I assume we have little to no impact on materials as they are priced globally. And then on labour, Ireland is expensive, wages are high. Not sure how cheap we can expect construction workers to be.

Government subsidies seem the only option to me at present. People can’t seem to grasp that we have two perceived issues -

1. Prices are too high
2. We aren’t building enough homes for the population growth.

In the short term, fixing one of those is naturally going to make the other worse - getting builders to ramp up their output and then sell at really cheap prices is fantasy. So pick your poison!

Where exactly is it unviable to build in Ireland? How come we had that incident in Rural Mayo last week, where new builds originally sold to ftb were pulled and sold to a fund whose business was to sell them on again perhaps to the state or another fund.

If I recall correctly the original price was 220k, the fund buyer has to pay 10% tax on that plus profit in selling on

So I'm calling BS on the narrative that it's unviable to build on large swathes of Ireland.

Prices in Dublin falling for the last 5 months (only 2 months if you look at national)

I can't post links so...CSO.... Residential Property Prices....February 2023

You need to go into 'Data' to see the month movements FYI

Dreadful headline and most likely deliberate. Prices were not up 5% in February, they were up 5% in the 12 months to February. Prices from the beginning of last year are not that relevant anymore. The key takeaway from this is that actual selling prices have now fallen for two months in a row and annual growth is now at a 22 month low. Just shows people can all take very different things from the same statistic.

Rural Ireland is over supplied in mcmansions from the previous bubble. What it needs is 2/3 bed homes for Workers that keep our traditional economy ticking over such as agriculture/tourism etc

For insurance purposes SCSI is a guide not compulsory. A tradional price gouging industry is gaining from these rates kept as high as possible (nudge, nudge, wink, wink Irish economics)

That is not what was said

These schemes are buying up existing buildings, keeping existing tenants in situ,

This protects the haves at the expense of the have nots. New entrants pay the price who in general are our youth. There are liitle/no homes left so they are far more likely to leave

Our 4 billion a year spent on housing is pissed away buying existing supply rather than adding new. It is stupidity on an epic scale, the only way it could be justified is an expensive vote buying project

You may have a point if we view this scheme in isolation, but every scheme has the same traits and characteristics.

The first warnings of a supply issue were from Ronan Lyons in 2013, unexpected corporation tax receipts began in 2015. The state was the largest property owner in this period, tax receipts boomed in the years since. Multiple opportunities to make significant progress on the issue.

Buying now at what appears to be the top of the cycle is suicide, all efforts need to be put into new supply with the commercial sector frozen outside the office blocks the state is funding.

Take advantage of what appears to be an incoming worldwide recession. The recession will cool demand so a supply surge would get us to equilibrium quicker than it would in the previous 10 years

Enniskerry is lovely but the first house screams of overpriced, delusional asking for 850k.

The daughter of friend of mine just bought on Bidx1.com a house for 100k in Williamston, Co. GALWAY ! The house is good condition, needs a stove and oil burner. 4 bedroom house. Definitely you couldn't build one for that price.

There is always time. Will probably happen for sure in the next 1 to 15 years.

"2nd Month on month drop now Jan .5% and Feb a further drop of .4% its not a collapse but if that trajectory continues for the rest of the year we will see 5 to 6% drop.

This is just backward looking.

market in Dublin is buoyant again. Mass viewings, first offers 10% above aks, new record prices in estates.

In a recession, developers are often amongst the first to suffer, so don’t be surprised if quite a few fold up their tents to avoid creditors.

If the State is employing developers for large scale developments, the State will be the biggest ride in history. See the children’s hospital as an example.

As I have been saying, the FF/FG governments have been doing everything in their power to inflate property prices. So, when the ECB started hiking interest rates, the government said to hell with responsibility, let`s ease borrowing restrictions by reducing deposit requirements and let the bankers have their bonuses for whatever reckless gambling they do. Mark my words, if interest rates continue to rise and if house prices look set to decline again, then you can expect the return of the 110% mortgage. It could happen before the year is out.

When the government is out of ammo and the banks collapse anyway, will they bail them out again? Well, they will try. It all depends on whether or not the EU remains intact. It could disintegrate as Ireland and the other PIGS (Portugal,Italy, Greece, Spain) demand more stimulus while Germany, the Netherlands and Finland refuse to go along with it.