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Russia - threadbanned users in OP

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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,346 ✭✭✭Jinglejangle69


    Was there ever any reports of those ratios outside of Bakhmut???

    And Gatling, if you believe the deaths on both sides are that low then you have swallows the kool aid.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,428 ✭✭✭macraignil


    "One think this leak does ,it debunks the notion of 10-1 losses or even 7-1 in Ukraines favor ,"

    Why do you think these figures from a random leaked report are more accurate than any other source?

    The Ukrainians are fighting in their own country and while not publishing their own losses are regularly publishing their count on the forces lost by the russians in the war there and they are very different than those that you just typed out.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,569 ✭✭✭jackboy


    In fairness Ukraine would not be a reliable source in reporting Russian casualties as it is their job to spread damaging misinformation about Russia. Very hard to get facts about such war casualties but as the US report was supposed to be confidential it could be close to accurate, unless it was purposely leaked.



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Yes because the 10-1 has bandied around this thread for months,but Russian are losing tens of thousands a month at 10-1 losses,

    But the American intelligence leak's completely debunked that along with the other claims of at least 7-1 according to the same people over and over,

    It's barely 2-1 losses and yet Russia are gaining ground,



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,059 ✭✭✭✭Furze99


    Maybe Europe/ NATO/ US is going to have to up it's game so. If the choice is between letting Russia lay waste to and seize a substantial part of a neighbouring state or driving them out inflicting a serious defeat on them, what will be above choose. This is where the prospect of escalation becomes real and even justifiable. A lot of blood has been spilt, a lot of water under the bridge, has the point of no return been passed?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,346 ✭✭✭Jinglejangle69


    Where has this 10-1 been bandied about the war as a whole?



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,804 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    So no 180k dead on both sides like you claimed earlier.

    What's surprising is the US intel figures are extremely close to ORYX figures.

    Russian Tank losses: 1908 (ORYX) vs 2048 (US intel)

    Ukraine Tank losses: 480 (ORYX) vs 486 (US intel)

    I would have though they would have more intel and not just browse ORYX for figures.

    The Ukrainian KIA figure is also interesting. Back at the end of November they acknowledged 10-13K dead. (This was largely seen as an under reporting by people on here). But it's about 1.5k a month up to November (higher end of the 13k). I believe the figures from the leak are up to March 1st? Let's be lazy, that's 4 months at 1.5k a month, added to the 10-13k gives us 16-19k. Very very close to the US intel figure.


    NATO figures from the first month of the war had Russian dead at 7-15k. So Russia lost an additional ~30k in 12 months. That's including the cannon fodder, conscripts and meatshields being used by Wagner.



  • Registered Users Posts: 685 ✭✭✭I.am.Putins.raging.bile.duct


    Anyone else getting the feeling the leak is a double bluff? Allow intel that's some true some not into the hands of a few idiots in the system to allow leak. Even encouraged by planted online contacts. Make a big show about it to tighten home security and let Russia think they just watched USA walk over a landmine.

    It feels like counter bullsh*it ops to me, well I hope it is.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 26,663 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    Anyone else getting the feeling the leak is a double bluff?

    No. Its far too **** stupid.



  • Registered Users Posts: 23,664 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Unfortunately for Ukraine numbers is a quality of it's own. Even if the Russian losses were much more Ukraine still don't have the manpower Russia can throw for years at this - and Ukraine's losses can't be sustained very long in comparison to Russian forces.

    I think the situation is pretty grim. As for the counter offensive apparently being planned - if it happens that just has to work, they have to keep moving forward.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 20,047 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    They really are barbarians at the gates of Europe. Even if the goods are fake, the concepts behind them and the market for them are the problem; it's the thought that counts.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,428 ✭✭✭macraignil


    For me there is something about the story of the leak that just does not add up. How people are taking material from these documents as gospel truth seems bizarre to me.



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling




  • Registered Users Posts: 3,746 ✭✭✭zv2


    “Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities.” — Voltaire



  • Registered Users Posts: 685 ✭✭✭I.am.Putins.raging.bile.duct


    I follow several Americans from a military background that put out videos or articles every day and they were zipped up no comment until the lad was arrested and a general statement was given. No deviation they all just went dead. This tells me theres a proper propaganda war on that most of us aren't aware of.

    The Russians live and die by stuffing nonsense and lies down their own populaces throat but how do they handle a gift when it might not be a gift?



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    The biggest issue with the counter offensive,it could well be a one shot gig ,if they get bogged down or don't make significant breakthroughs and regain significant territories,

    There could be a what now from International backers , especially lately,less equipment seems to be getting promised as everyone's stocks and supplies are not infinite and some countries have already said they need new equipment to replace what they already sent before they release more equipment to the effort,

    Bakhmut isn't going the way we all expect ed , certainly not 30,000 + dead Russians as hoped ,

    In February alone the figures suggested the Russians were losing 150 -750 a night which would bring it up to something like 27,000 dead for February alone ,which is wide of the mark when you look at the over all losses for the war at 35,000-40,000.

    I remember when we were using Kiev independent figures for 80,000 Russians killed before the new year,



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,402 ✭✭✭Homelander


    Unless I'm mistaken when people talk about those high ratios they are talking about Bakhmut.

    I've never once heard someone claim that the overall war has a ratio anything close to what's happening there on a localised level.



  • Registered Users Posts: 414 ✭✭Mullinabreena


    Could the US leak be a way to gather more support for Ukraine? If things aren't looking as good as we thought maybe the west needs to dig deeper in support of Ukraine. Or is that conspiracy nonsense?



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,428 ✭✭✭macraignil


    I would think there has to have been a propaganda war going on related to this conflict for some time so have always been skeptical about what figures are being talked about and what events are being discussed more than others. The regular talk that Bakhmut is about to fall seems very likely to me to be a ploy to suck more moskovyte resources into that area and lessen the attacks on other areas and even lessen their ability to react when Ukraine makes its move to reclaim its territory. The way the moskovytes are so used to dealing with lies may make the effect of disinformation less effective on them but guess there is no harm trying anyway. It will be interesting to see who has been duped by the efforts to misinform some time in the future when independent sources look at the real evidence of the course of the conflict.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,804 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    If the leak was solely Ukraine intel you could possibly argue that, however there were more embarrassing documents leaked to do with other friendly countries. Also the fact they arrested someone kinda makes it a non mincemeat kinda operation.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    @Wolf359f So no 180k dead on both sides like you claimed earlier.


    "which suggests " is what I said based off dividing the figures ,


    Suggested not claimed



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,047 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Back around when Ukraine regained Kherson, a Ukrainian official reported that Orc to Ukrainian losses in some regions, such as Kherson, were running at 1:10

    A month or so ago, a commander in Bakhmut said Orc losses were ten times Ukraines, but the problem was there were just so many of them and they just kept being replaced.

    And here you have Danilov - Ukraine's Secretary of National Security - stating very clearly that the US estimates Gatling favours are bulldust: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/03/20/7394258/

    "I declare with full responsibility that we do not have 100,000 casualties among the military. It is impossible. This is confidential information during wartime, but 100,000 [killed – ed.] is completely untrue."More details: The exact number, as the secretary of the National Security and Defence Council noted, is known only to the Ukrainian military and the president.

    According to Danilov, the ratio of losses is currently 1 to 7, 1 to 8, and in some cases 1 to 10 in favour of Ukraine’s Armed Forces.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,408 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard


    I wonder is the leak causing a delay with the UKranian counter offensive.

    I know they are conducting probing attacks and retook some small villages more North East, but i thought we'd have seen something far more substantial by now.

    Possible they feel they do not have the ability to conduct this attack or know its a one shot chance so they need a perfect roll of the dice?

    All Eyes On Rafah



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,804 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    One thing about the recent intelligence leak's losses were at 375,000 killed and a similar number of injured and incapacitated, which suggests both sides are around 185,000 killed

    So where is the 375,000 killed? And please don't say in Ukraine.

    You like to jump on people quoting incorrect figures.



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    I believe they are still waiting on the weather and other supplies to be in place first, there's another Rammstein conference due shortly where protecting the skies and forming an IronFist is the topic for discussion, forming an IronFist was mentioned at the last conference too

    In lot of areas they are still struggling with mud and boggy conditions ,. making vehicle menuvers difficult



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,047 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    I doubt it, because the increased support Ukraine needs most is 4th gen Western fighters with really good radars so they can take on the Orc SU-35's and similar. And of course it's the US who could most easily supply those if it wished, which Biden at least doesn't want to, despite many who do.

    Australia has 40-45 spare F-18s that could be supplied to ukraine. If the US wanted that to happen it would just take a quick phone call - no nead for embarrasing leaks and such theatrics.

    So yes, it makes no sense as the US doesn't need to goad itself or others.



  • Registered Users Posts: 20,047 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    I'd say the leak has nothing to do with it. The slow rate of supply of weapons has ruled out an early offensive. Just today the last of the Canadian leopards were offloaded in Poland and Spain promised 6 after Easter, the first 2 being sent on 9/4 with the other 4 some time after that, presumably. And in news today, Denmark is sending leopard ones 'very soon'.

    After reaching an agreement with Germany, Denmark has decided to transfer a total of 100 Leopard-1 main battle tanks to Ukraine, acting Defense Minister of Denmark, Troels Lund Poulsen, said during a joint briefing with Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov on April 10.

    “We will start deliveries of Leopard tanks to Ukraine by summer,”Poulsen said.

    And so on and so on.




  • Registered Users Posts: 3,424 ✭✭✭Dubh Geannain


    No. It hasn't.


    Maybe one or two "suggested" it in relation to Bakhmut.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,346 ✭✭✭Jinglejangle69




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  • Registered Users Posts: 20,047 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Yes it has, because, I have made some of those posts, backed with links.



This discussion has been closed.
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