A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

Government spending at a time when we have full employment and chronic labour shortages in key areas like all building trades - this will only cause further inflation.

Government spending should be counter cyclical - save during the good times, spend in the downturns. Otherwise you just inflate the bubbles and are broke when they pop.

I don't know the ins and outs of the deal with BOI staff.

Was it only the BOI staff that were covered?

Did new people hired get covered by union membership?

Did they recognize it any BU in HP outside of the BOI staff?

Has any other BU since then in HP recognized unions?

Was it part of the contract when they took over?

Oct 2023, probability is 60%.

No, for the left, there is never a bad time to spend other people's money.

France, Spain and Italy all increased GDP by quite a bit.

But many of the options proposed - including selling assets or the creation of a "bad bank"

😀

German inflation down a bit more than expected. It's going to take a while to get to 2% at this rate.

Shares halted. Looks like the 2nd biggest bank failure in US history.

Sobering reading below for Ireland, especially with an election to be bought next year!

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/04/27/ireland-economy-taxes-jobs-apple-us-tech-companies-eu/

Not really, more a matter of if they are in the domino chain or not. If not in the line they can fail if they in line they will be saved.

It is not so easy as saying just let them fail and crack on with it. They are all connected to each other worldwide, one fails it may cause a problem for 10 banks and then that 10 may cause problems for 100. Already in just one month the assets of 4 failed banks are more than 500 bank failures in the 80's

Then you get to the non banks or "shadow banks" which is far bigger. Insurance, investment funds, hedge funds, pension funds and who knows what else. Those are far less regulated but still all connected to each other also with astronomical amounts of risk involved if things went badly.

Not saying all of it will crash but even 10% of it would cause carnage.

Shadow banking refers to the financial activities performed by non-bank financial institutions that operate outside of the traditional banking system. These institutions are also known as non-bank financial intermediaries and include hedge funds, investment banks, money market funds, and other financial entities that perform functions similar to banks, but without being subject to the same level of regulatory oversight.

Shadow banking activities typically involve lending, borrowing, or investing in financial markets, and can be quite complex and opaque, making it difficult to understand their potential risks and impacts on the broader financial system. Some common examples of shadow banking activities include securitization of assets, derivatives trading, and repurchase agreements (repos).

While shadow banking can provide benefits such as increased access to credit and more efficient allocation of capital, it can also pose risks to financial stability, especially during times of economic stress. The lack of regulatory oversight and transparency can lead to excessive risk-taking and can contribute to the amplification of financial shocks. As such, regulators and policymakers have increased their scrutiny of shadow banking activities in recent years in an effort to mitigate these risks.