I Love Punting , Providing Selections & Chatting Gibberish ; & I Intend To Do So On Hyah

hayrabit · 01-05-2023 5:12pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120541739#Comment_120541739

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120543386#Comment_120543386

no joy at all there - winner was a well supported Tony Martin horse.. Ossie's Lodge 11/8 won easy, and would've perhaps won easier if gaps had appeared earlier

pick finished well back :(

j@utis · 01-05-2023 5:18pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120543276#Comment_120543276

Please do not hesitate, your input is always appreciated. The two things I have against favorite is that he's won two small races and neither of them were at this tricky course, but these aren't strong negatives, I might just a little nibble on Havana only because "it matters more when you have money on it" according to PP ad.

I have a terrible headcold today, all blocked up, pounding headache and I have to pack for the flight tomorrow to Denmark (legoland - holiday my ar$e).

hayrabit · 01-05-2023 5:45pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120543442#Comment_120543442

thankee j 🙂

may the cold o'er in Denmark strangely get rid o' your own cold 😂 doubt that's lodjical tho somehow

hope tis an enjoyable jolly what ya have there in Scandiland 😊

can't say i'm jealous - tis a struggle to leave us pad at best of times , nd me needs go shoppee

see that Havana Goldrush been trimmed a bit in betting - good luck with that one j@u :)

hayrabit · 01-05-2023 5:57pm

unlucky with Havana Goldrush missus - tough break that; beat fav an all

:(

no joyee me neither 😢

hayrabit · 01-05-2023 5:58pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120543564#Comment_120543564

@t'Wench 😃

you was right about fav having niggling doubts/ '?s' , so props with a good call there 😃 saw no chinks myself tbf

j@utis · 01-05-2023 6:01pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120543564#Comment_120543564

and the most annoying thing about it is... look at the excerpt my notebook... and I looked at it and I was like nah...

hayrabit · 01-05-2023 6:13pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120543580#Comment_120543580

dat's a sickener tbs j :(

ya could've found that one alright - I overlooked it tbf , but it weren't unfindable on form shown previous

sent ya a pm there j@u

tf no more racing today - going changes and stuff, plus missing findable winners a sickener

held us own today, me,, up a few bob, so aint so bad 😋

j@utis · 01-05-2023 6:13pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120543570#Comment_120543570

I didn't watch the race but now looking at the replay, gosh that's hilarious - Havana trying to bite the head off its rival aka trying to win by all means

hayrabit · 01-05-2023 6:15pm

at least he wanted it ! give horse credit for that. dinna agree with his tactics tho 😆

j@utis · 01-05-2023 6:24pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120543610#Comment_120543610

If it worked I'll be all for it 🤣

I considered Eye Of The Water for a while but later discounted him for the fact he was just plugging on behind and not getting nearer.

j@utis · 02-05-2023 3:38pm

Got VPN working, game on! 4:30 Yarmouth - Umberto, no study just plucked one from my notebook.

hayrabit · 02-05-2023 4:24pm

😊

not feeling it today - backed 2 losers,,, thought I was unlucky with the last one (2nd) as winner come from nearside rail under Egan, but me pick were out in middle

no pagejumpers or owt like that far as today goes

cheaper to watch A Place In t'Sun 🤣

will back ms j@utis' Yarmouth pick - money back if that one wins.. be me last bet today regardless

I wanna give Pontefract a right good look this eve as lots of big (but not too big) fields' handicaps, as well as top nd tail races at Ascot - both meets the morrow; but the fickle Going descriptions are tempering us motivations 😋 😴

:)

j@utis · 02-05-2023 5:16pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120546891#Comment_120546891

I was on it since last night, took 11/4 2fav, they flipped places with the fav before race that was encouraging but not to be.

I just watched the race replay - winner was impressive, will go places.

hayrabit · 02-05-2023 7:28pm

ya , were v good winner

so good i reckon must've been fancied by stable. went off ~ 3/1 tho iirc - trainer/jockey won that renewal last year an' all, but that one were havin' 2nd run

tomorrow Wednesday 3rd May

Pontefract - Good-good to soft in places

according to weather forecast, it seems very little rain's due tomorrow. had a look at the first race there - looked at about half the field, and i could make cases for them all; even the ex-Irish ones with only 1 or so (or none even) runs in England. too tricky that 1.40, so left it off

2.15

Taygar ~ 5/6 fav was well punted on (8/1 -----> 18/5) on her lto and first run when winning at Beverley 2wks ago. probably/likely more improvement expected. I wanna be against tho. Chumbaa ~ 13/2 was having her 2nd run that day, and set early fractions - ending up finishing 3rd of nine o'er the 5fs at Beverley

Taygar is likely to improve for that run, but she has to shoulder a penalty (?) here for winning that Class5 Restricted Novice Stakes race. Also, she was held up out back and had to be rousted along ~3fs out, and didn't get on top until lateish on in t'piece, but looks like she won going away in the end

Pontefract seems more a frontrunners track than Beverley, and there's a few newcomers what might go well first time out, possibly?? who knows with 'newcomers' ?? certainly no me 😂 With that in mind, might try lay Taygar for 2 & 3 places at short odds, if prices etc are similar tomorrow. hoping jolly be too far back to make telling impression is hope here

think i'll back the aforementioned CHUMBAA 13/2 WIN in hope that the relatively experienced (2 runs this Roger Fell Filly has) 2yo will jump off in front , with a view towards putting up in-running lay @ ~ 6/4 or shorter - summat like that anyhow.

tough going trying to tackle handicaps when motivation aint high, so easy (easier anyroad 😋) to look at race where there's eff all form to put usselves off 🙂

:) :) :)

hayrabit · 02-05-2023 8:21pm

5.10 Pontefract

can't really rule out Shabs ~ 4/1 and Mr Strutter ~ 5/1, but they aint too generously priced and me only wants one pick here

I think Back From Dubai ~ 5/1 can go well over a mile on Good going, but perhaps on a less stiff track. has won at Donny and gone close at Yarmouth over a mile on good, but flopped the one time he tackled course and distance, altho that was way back in July 2020. enough for me to leave off

Frankelio ~ 9/1 also not without a chance. is CD winner from June 2020, but well out of form as of late. not for me, and price looks fair short an' all

Inexplicable ~ 9/2 is a serial AW winner. looks to have only a couple of turf runs to his name, and looks poorly drawn in box 13. easy to draw a line thru this one

seems like most trips here favour frontrunners, and those low-drawn perhaps, also. Pen landed on WILLING TO PLEASE 12/1 WIN+EW. This one mainly races on the AW, but has winning turf form on top of the ground - with two of those wins coming at Carlisle, albeit them two wins were ran over a distance ~50yds shy of the mile. is well drawn in box four for a race prominent type and'll do us here

g'lk

hayrabit · 02-05-2023 10:54pm

Pontefract 5.45

DARBUCKS ~ 6/1 WIN . A bit short tbf , but can go well at a mile on turf on ~Good ground. probably wouldn't want much, if any, "Firm" in description i reckon. last run weren't the best (when finishing 10th at Southwell over a mile) but is generally rarely far away when they cross the line.

most or a lot of these have plenty AW form, including the yet to win Galton ~ 11/2. can't be ruled out, and has gone close recently, but feeling is this one will want further on turf, or a race on softer going. have looked thru race now, and GALTON 11/2 WIN will do as second pick here

apart from the two mentioned, i'm having great difficulty finding any other likely ones. perhaps a speculative each way punt on Marcie for shrapnel - tho this one is prolly gonna be a NH horse in time

not liking the ~ 3/1 jolly Agonyclite at all at all. a second over CD lto looks okay, but was on Soft Going then, and the Haslam horse has a far less favourable draw in box 11 tomorrow to overcome - drawn in box four of fifteen for last month's CD outing, and comes outta 11 2moro. be looking to try lay this one for places, but will leave that til closer to the off

😊

hayrabit · 02-05-2023 11:54pm

Ascot - Good to soft-good in places

1.30

just looked at the jolly Yaanaas ~ 6/4 here. is drawn in box three. last two winners have come from boxes 6 & 7 - with boxes 8 & 9 also seeming reasonably favourable

4yo has won both his races so far, with them both over a mile on two separate AW tracks. def don't scream 'mortgage job' to me. will look to lay this one for 3 & 4 places providing similar price tomorrow

any amount of course and distance winners in this Class3 Apprentice Handicap. could pick several (or none 😋) but will concentrate on those drawn from boxes 6 to 9.

these two'll do me each way: HELM ROCK 14/1 EW & FANTASY BELIEVER 14/1 EW

aint mahoosively confident on them two , but four places available and their draws appear favourable

):))

gluck

j@utis · 03-05-2023 8:27am

I'm shocked you're against Yaanaas when according to many write ups he's a sure sure thing up to 97.35%. I actually backed him last time and itching to do so again.

The one I have to back is Strong Power only because I've backed him like a dozen times before, unsuccessfully I'm afraid, so chasing my losses here which I normally avoid doing but this one pi$$ed me too many times when out of places just by the whisker. He's dropping in trip and in class, so you never know... I'm exaggerating about backing him a dozen times, it's way less than that, the one I've backed 10x is Danni California but her tab is green on the spreadsheet, she owes me nothing ☺️

j@utis · 03-05-2023 8:34am

And the other one I'd like to be on the same race, (I forgot to mention, it's the last in Ascot), is Zero Carbon, he travelled very good last time on the soft ground until the last furlong when fading quickly, but that was his first run after winter break, has better ground and cushty draw today, chances.

I can't browse cards properly on my phone, only going by what my notebook suggests.

j@utis · 03-05-2023 8:38am

Great write-ups there, OP, pleasure to read, you could get a column on ATR yourself, if only your strike rate was a slightly better 🤣

No offense, I'm only winding you up. Keep them coming 👍

hayrabit · 03-05-2023 1:29pm

thankee j@u 😊

I'm shocked you're against Yaanaas when according to many write ups he's a sure sure thing up to 97.35%. I actually backed him last time and itching to do so again.

😁 😁 😁

if i didn't know ya any better, me'd think u was playing "Silly Beggars" there like what folk in Emmerdale and Corrie oft do !

😊 hope thee is having a good jolly @ over in Baltic Region 🙂

tis hard relying on one's "Dog" for doing what a lotta Cali folks do - cept does at be in t'ether 'nd not t'drink - in ur bid to find quality fancies etc etc

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120549209#Comment_120549209

between the two o' us , we aint doin' so bad missus

wonder 'ow much them ATR folks would gi'e a stellar picker like me ! would it be worth us while like ??

😂

hayrabit · 03-05-2023 2:29pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120548789#Comment_120548789

place for Helm Rock

money back there :)

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120547705#Comment_120547705

Chumbaa no good, only 5th - me backed him a few times more when la price on him went oot nd oot :( 😂 😴

hayrabit · 03-05-2023 3:19pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120549201#Comment_120549201

Zero Carbon an interesting pick tbs missus.. first time tackling minimum ,,,, hhmm

anyhoo, tried a logical illogical thesis here.. last two renewals winner come from box 7. with that in mind, i looked at CABEZA DE LLAVE 33/1 EW . layoff to contend with, but last time he ran on turf (August '22) he won. is a winner o'er minimum on #Good to Firm. Green Shoots at prices

2nd pick in wide open race. staying away from the "shorties" (4 - 5/1 region) and'll chance, as a second pick, RAMBUSO CREEK 9/1 EW who's a 5f winner on #Good to Firm and wears cheekpieces for t'first time

#ground is Good to Soft - Good in Places , but fekkit , it's sunny

too wide open this race - if it weren't pour La Wench, i'd have gawrn nowhere near it 😝

did well to just have the two selections 'ere

g'luck with all yours j - if ya can get on 😂

:)

hayrabit · 03-05-2023 4:03pm

think i'll leave off puntin for t'rest of day - aint feeling it 😊

annoyed with meself for not bothering to look at "Trueshan" race . only came 4th today. was against that one once or twice before, but no joy with laying @Trushan then.. would've been reasons to be cheerful for opposing Alan King horse today for sho - mainly course form - which is good form - but with plenty of Soft in description etc (no so much 2day as mainly Good ground) , and age of horse

hindsight is great 😋

ah well 🙂

have us few picks comin' up Ascot 5,00 and two at Ponty, and those'll do. #Place in t'Sun keep us occupied til then 😁

#maybe not. Johansson's alright , but she's outnumbered by t'blokes today 😒

:)

j@utis · 03-05-2023 5:23pm

Small profit from that Ascot 5pm race, backed SP to come in first 5, 0C in first 4, following former started to pay back, 0C lost his race at the gates.

j@utis · 03-05-2023 5:27pm

Now I'm seeing that Strong Power's SP was almost half of that in the morning, some shift, noted.

hayrabit · 03-05-2023 5:30pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120547882#Comment_120547882

3rd Willing To Please = about #best could have hoped for

#didn't know that before the race tho 🙂

in t'van early - kicked on about 3fs out, and started to flag inside last f/1.5f.. finished well ahead of the fourth tho, so place part never in doubt

finishes as 7/2 fav, so i give meself props for pickin' a '~~value loser'~~ there - i know @j@u@abroad@tisssseeeee would kongcurrrrr 😊

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120550679#Comment_120550679

weren't expecting much there so not too disappointed far as picking goes; pity they filled last two positions ats

have nowt did yet for 2moro ; might do yet, but no promisees :(

one more race to go: Stay thee well back Agonyclite 😃

:)0O))

hayrabit · 03-05-2023 5:52pm

thought/s for/on tomorrow

like to pick winners/ones what i can see going well at a price, etc ect,,, more horses lose than win tho - even short-priced jollies 🤣 that's why me tries to find one's at top o' market to lay betimes,,,,

,,,,, Tipperary - Good

5,20

on me finding lays (win/placee) or trying to, almost as much as les winners, this first race on t'card looks good "favooreet opposable" wise. Birdie or Bust is 13/8 paper fav. Birdie Or Bust is by Walk In T'Park , and , for me, these beasts #seem to prefer softer going, or at trips further even than ~2m. #generally speaking #aint exactly scientific , just me thoughts is all 🙂🤣

*"do your own research" like what manys a quality youtoober wouldst advance or recommend; and i'd have tae kongcurr 😄

5yo has just the two races to date, but both those were maiden hurdles' races, so does have experience. also, this filly come 2nd in both those races, so hard enough to find fault with filly's ability. them races were pretty much ran on bogs tho, as Fairyhouse run were on soft to heavy, and Tramore run ran on heavy

definitely worth a second look for folks and me, this race, with view to laying this likely jolly for places various

that is all, ta for reading :)

hayrabit · 03-05-2023 7:45pm

8.10 Brighton

very speculative each way on MY BEAUTY 66/1 EW. literally nothing to recommend formwise. is lightly raced , first run on turf , altho AW form is mediocre at best , sports first-time tonguestrap. generally feel that these Prince Of Lir progeny - for reasons i can't quite comprehend, or fully believe myself, even 😆 - want 6 or 7furlongs, 'nd that a mile's too far. but he did have a winner at Yarmouth yesterday in a mile race.

only two places tho on account of a nr

so, a few small shoots what's tinged with green ☺️

plus, Rhiain's due a win - too good of a jockey to not hve ridden more winners 😂

g'l

hayrabit · 03-05-2023 8:11pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120551292#Comment_120551292

tomorrow - Tiobraid Árainn

Going - Good

5.20

more I looked at it, the more i like the look of that place-lay on jolly. plenty of these have won or gone close in either Bumpers or over t'sticks (naturally, none of 'em have won any hurdles' race/s 😃 )

never heard of the jockey, but pen landed on I SEA THE MOON 20/1 EW. one of many what can be given place claims here, imo

first-time visor offers encouragement of sorts, and, formwise, her two hurdles' runs way back in '21 at Gowran and Tramore in October and August, on Good ground, should give her some sort of chances. prefer further? - perhaps so, but this one looks to have a bit of juice in price - could easily be 14s i reckon

deffo try lay that Birdie Or Bust ~ 11/8 fav for t'places. green shoots on that score too - mainly untested on non-testing ground, plus likelihood, as mentioned in post quoted, that horse won't act so good on Good

:)

I Love Punting , Providing Selections & Chatting Gibberish ; & I Intend To Do So On Hyah

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