Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

"And yet people still wonder why SF are surging in the polls at FF/FG's expense."

This economically illiterate policy is literally what SF were pushing for? They consistently push for ill-conceived poorly thought out policies, then when polling show these are popular FF have a tendency to leer towards the same brand of populism, pick some of them up and then get torn apart for how poor they are.

While I'd agree the parties of government shouldn't be doing it they're in kind of a lose lose situation where SF propose pie in the sky stuff and the government is either criticised for not doing it, or criticised for doing it which proves how bad an idea it was. See also: eviction freeze.

anyone know when this increase will take effect?

only got loan offer the other day , hoping to get everything sorted in the next 6 weeks

Its funny because the minority of people that want house prices to fall will suddenly change their tune as soon as they actually get a house!

Recent buyers would probably fear negative equity far more than established home-owners. Someone who bought a house in Dublin for 100k over the asking price in the last two years is likely very worried about falling prices as they'll be saddled with a pile of debt that cannot clear at a time of rising interest rates.

I bought a house last year, but I would still like to see prices fall. I would lose out, but it's better in the long term.

The really interesting figure to watch for in this is the home ownership rate, which is declining rapidly. A quick google is only giving me figures up to 2016, but even it is illustrative:

"the last census showed the percentage of households that owned their home outright or with a mortgage fell from 75% in 2006 to 67.6% in 2016".

That trend has only accelerated since 2016 too, I'd presume its under 60% now. Not all of those remaining 60% of home owning households support price increases either - lots would have kids in their 20s/30s living at home unable to move out now.

Once the home ownership rate drops below a certain point then the political pendulum will swing rapidly to measures to reduce house prices, because its what the majority of voters will want. Its going to be very interesting to watch things unfold when that happens.

Ironically its essentially the exact opposite political trend that Thatcher pushed in the 1980s - the idea then was to help working/lower middle class people to become homeowners because they would then vote for the Conservatives. But FG&FF's property policies over the last two decades have done essentially the opposite - they've deprived an entire generation (or two) of the opportunity to become homeowners, so instead those people are turning to left-wing political parties (SF).

When it comes to housing, it would appear to most that FFG have kind of a monopoly on policies that destroy the housing market > economy. Recent history should show us that.

I see FF continually attacking SF by saying they are an anti homeownership party. Affordable purchase is the ultimate populist policy.

It's not the purpose of taxation to be used to give the few homeownership at the expense of the many. Any state built/funded/subsidised housing should remain in state ownership so that 1 home can help multiple families transition between renting and ownership and not be a gift to 1 family and end up on Airbnb as I have seen

This 1 simple change in direction would be positive for supply, dampen house price inflation and build costs

FF are the ultimate populists in measures they know make the situation worse

where you have your ownership numbers from?

also social housing tenants do not care about the “rental crisis” either. They’re probably quite smug about it seeing the plebs get up in the morning and sharing apartments….

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You would be fine. You would still likely be paying less for your mortgage than you would for rent. And with the way rental supply is going if you had bought a shed (shed might be an exaggeration but not much :)) at least you would have somewhere to live. People renting who are moving are having great difficulty finding somewhere when they have to move. Or even if they went travelling for a year and then came back they wont find somewhere to live.

So many problems, but buying anything that is yours and you have available to you to move into give you much better options for the future. Ren

I dont agree with this. Just because there is low rental options should not be the sole reason for buying. If you end up buying something unsuitable, you will find it very difficult to move on without a period of renting (buying and selling at the same time is a complete non runner these days).

I think we are talking about 2 different things here. I am referring to "buyers regret" when buying something unsuitable (because there are no rental options) and then finding it very hard to move on (not due to financials, but the logistical nightmare that is buying and selling at the same time). I am in this situation myself and although I dont have any financial regrets, I am rather stuck without moving the family to a rental for what could be a few years.

Be worried about equity in your primary residence is like the people who think they are assets. IF your planning on living there for 20/25 years you are going to experience plenty of positive and negative equity periods, it really doesn't matter.

I think most people who are renting would love the security that ownership brings. 'Low rental options' actually means for many people paying disproportionately high amounts of income on rent. Many are squeezed into shared accomodation as a result. Many fear being handed an eviction notice which could potentially result in homeless.

I've had EAs also tell me in our area that the lack of rentals has meant homeowners are not trading up because they cannot get a short term let and are choosing to sit it out.