A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

Regional banks in the US taking a hit today.

Some debt is 100+ years old, a lot of which gets rolled over. Our nat. debt will probably grow by more, or maybe it will decrease, depends on the situation.

What is going on exactly?

Be specific, as in, what's going to happen in the next e.g. 3 months in relation to banking.

Serious rumblings that the shadow banking sector is under pressure, considering Irelands serious exposure to shadow banking what is the likelihood it will cause damage here?

I would have been of the opinion that the funny money was just being shuffled through Ireland for tax reasons, hard to know but its quite sickening this **** is happening again considering we all were on this rodeo back in 08, "lessons will be learned" yada yada.

I know the banks failing made poor choices that ultimately caused their demise, but the main Central Bankers and planers really have to stand up and take accountability for the absolute mess they have created. They set the low interest rates and implemented QE which has been the cause of balloning of asset prices and companies gambling with risk free 0% interest rates.

The whole fiancial system needs to be looked at big time, all this QE and low interest rates have done nothing bar prop up the golden goose GDP, that's great countries growing on paper yippie, at the same time the IMF have research papers done stating that due to low interest rates and QE it has inflated asset prices and a major cause in the economic divides between the haves and have nots, or in Irelands case the house owner and the renter. If this unravels and the Central Bankers pull the QE card again, economic divides will get a hell of a lot worse, social divides and class divisions will emerge, polarised extermist views will emerge and couple all this with weak leadership at governmental level and a catastrophe is really the only outcome.

History tells us when these things happen, we end up in a mess.

I think 2022 shows up on 3.7 Trillion, Lets hope the CB of Ireland are correct in this instance and I would tend to agree with them as its seems like funny money just being funneled through Ireland, but they have been known to lie.

One thing I would be worried about "The CBI’s analysis found that these funds, and by extension the entire commercial property market, displayed distinctive vulnerabilities on two fronts: high levels of leverage, and liquidity mismatches" and "A recent analysis by the Central Bank of Ireland (CBI) found that between 2019 and 2021, the non-bank sector provided €6 billion in new lending to Irish SMEs, with more than €4 billion still owed to these institutions today. In the first half of 2022, new non-bank lending to SMEs represented 28 per cent of the entire market, showing that SMEs could be at risk from any shocks to the non-bank sector" Buisness post.

6 Billion in loans to domestic Irish SMEs is nothing to be laughed, somehow though I think the majority of these would have been tech start ups

Future outlook doesn’t look great. If our debt grew and we only paid interest when there was an important growth of corporate tax, what is going to happen when the corporate tax won’t grow as fast from 2024 onwards?

Looks like another regional US bank is in trouble. Down 60% last night in after hours trading.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pacwest-explores-options-amid-stock-211105457.html

What's going on exactly?

According to you nothing. Funny thing, you dismiss current situation in banking as nothing to see here and then demand specifics of what will happen in the next 3 months. Seems that recent mini-banking crisis keeps on giving and refuse to follow your wishful "all's good" thinking.

and that is without dozens of small regional banks which already failed in the last 2 months but are small to bail out or even to report on.... 🤣

Collectively, the three big banks that have collapsed in 2023 had more assets than all 25 banks that collapsed in 2008 did. That is just for the USA.

Soon we may even see couple of European banks in the mix as contagion cant be stopped only slowed down to an extent.

But yeah, mini-crisis nothing to see here.

This stuff again. No one thinks everything is "fine". Massive inflation, pandemic, war, energy crisis, etc.

SVB went down, plus a few American banks had to be rescued, and that contagion spread to Credit Suisse. That's not "nothing", but it's not automatically 2008 either. Two weeks after it was already dying down.

Your comments seemed to project certainty that something significant was about to happen, so naturally I asked what will happen in the next 3 months, to which you seem to have no clue or idea (only hopes it appears)

I don't have a crystal ball, no one does, maybe the banking issues peter out, maybe they flare up at a later date due to different conditions or maybe we get the same fear/panic that already hit - but it's important to look at the situation objectively, not dogmatically.

Could be up to 4% by Christmas at this rate.

ECB are more nervous about rises than the US because of the debt burden of certain Euro countries.

They will rise slower and hope inflation sorts itself out which may prolong the pain, but the alternative is starting a debt crisis in Italy if rates go too high too soon

I'm now on the fence about it all.

On one hand I see the turmoil and on the other I'm taking it all with a pinch of salt. Every media source, social or not, now relies so heavily on clicks, gratification likes, and traffic, thar they cannot be trusted anymore as a singular source of information.

You really need to take everything with a pinch of salt these days. The dynamics of the news and media have changed so rapidly in the last few years. Most of the sources shared here benefit from clicks and traffic, and I don't have the qualifications to make a call on the raw data myself. I see people here sharing all sorts of data that would make an economist blush, taking the word of the person who shared it on Twitter as gospel i'd say, not really understanding it themselves.

I have a degree in economics (which means **** all by the way) and the most reliable trend to date is the boom/bust model, which I'm pretty sure a healthy economy relies on but I could be now wrong as my degree was based on a rigid understanding of economics at that time, even though it is supposed to be a science.

This thread will eventually get the bust, and will see a boom, bust, boom. It's like we're trying to convince eachother that rain is due. I doubt a global recession is on the horizon, definitely not like the recesion we're clearly still shaken by in our heads.

Demographically and technologically, we're in for some serious changes in the very near future that will see all sorts of ups and downs and I think we're just beginning to see the impact of that. We're talking about recessions like they aren't an inevitability and I think that's just due to the trauma from the outlier we got to experience after 2008.

You dismiss what is going on as "what happened in the March" as if that was some distant past. What happened in 2008 did not happen in a days or even months. It took some time till it culminated and quite a few people recognized it - some saw it coming for more than a year before it concluded.

Your comparison is not valid as we are still in the process of contagion and from the look of it, it is spreading. According to quite a lot of people it can easily become what you call "systemic crisis".

Even back in 2008 there were people like you around making a fun of the people who seen it coming pretty much till the last day.

...ann pettifor called the 08 crash in 03, and steve keen followed in late 05, there were many others as we all know, so it was well seen beforehand.....

Good movie about it if you like I found it nicely made. The big short (2015)

Shopify had another round of layoffs yesterday, not necessarily indicative of a recession but I know some of the folks who were effected. Sad stuff, and scary for them I am sure.