Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Options
1595596598600601804

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 617 ✭✭✭J_1980


    houses are not disappearing with every death.

    if you’re a homeowner in a job, there is zero incentive to vote SF unless you’re a core voter (republicans diehard).



  • Registered Users Posts: 617 ✭✭✭J_1980



    where you have your ownership numbers from?

    also social housing tenants do not care about the “rental crisis” either. They’re probably quite smug about it seeing the plebs get up in the morning and sharing apartments….



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,622 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Wonder are the latest figures attributable to the drop in rental properties. How are those people who would be renting, but are not because of no stock available accounted for.

    Those in emergency accomodation, returned to parents house, multi family dwellings etc

    November 2022

    The rental market has shrunk by 43,000 homes in the last five years in a further squeeze on renters as landlords continue to cash in on their properties and leave the market



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,245 ✭✭✭herbalplants




  • Registered Users Posts: 3,031 ✭✭✭Blut2


    My figures are from the Oireachtas Parliamentary Budget Office, which uses CSO data:

    https://data.oireachtas.ie/ie/oireachtas/parliamentaryBudgetOffice/2022/2022-01-12_snapshot-of-the-housing-market-in-2021-part-2_en.pdf

    I've no idea what the website tradingeconomics that you're using is, but their data is wrong.

    Social housing tenants don't support house price increases either though. They don't own their own homes so costly measures in the budget to prop up house prices are no use to them, they'd rather that money spent elsewhere that actually benefits them. Which more left-wing parties promise to do.

    Thats the rub for FF/FG - the only voters who support continual increases in home prices are home owners. And home owners without immediate family members forced to live with them because of a housing crisis at that. Which is fine in state with 75%+ home ownership rate and a reasonable rental market like we used to have, but in a state approaching 50% home ownership rate with a completely broken rental market its not going to be a viable electoral policy.



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 1,786 ✭✭✭DownByTheGarden


    You would be fine. You would still likely be paying less for your mortgage than you would for rent. And with the way rental supply is going if you had bought a shed (shed might be an exaggeration but not much :)) at least you would have somewhere to live. People renting who are moving are having great difficulty finding somewhere when they have to move. Or even if they went travelling for a year and then came back they wont find somewhere to live.

    So many problems, but buying anything that is yours and you have available to you to move into give you much better options for the future. Ren



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,786 ✭✭✭DownByTheGarden


    The very defnition of a Turkey voting for Christmas :)

    Id say if also if you are worried about inheritance tax, building your own house or even buying a site, you better avoid SF too.

    Actually better to just avoid them if you are even a tax payer.



  • Registered Users Posts: 706 ✭✭✭manniot2


    I dont agree with this. Just because there is low rental options should not be the sole reason for buying. If you end up buying something unsuitable, you will find it very difficult to move on without a period of renting (buying and selling at the same time is a complete non runner these days).



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,786 ✭✭✭DownByTheGarden


    You will find very few people who ever bought that think it was a bad idea.

    You will even find a hell of a lot of people who bought in 2005, 6, 7,8 who thought it was a very bad idea for a few years after who will now have decided that it was a great thing that they bought when they did.

    There were some who got burned and had to sell at a loss. But now we all know that once you buy you can ignore the bank if you fall on hard times after and wait it out.



  • Registered Users Posts: 706 ✭✭✭manniot2


    I think we are talking about 2 different things here. I am referring to "buyers regret" when buying something unsuitable (because there are no rental options) and then finding it very hard to move on (not due to financials, but the logistical nightmare that is buying and selling at the same time). I am in this situation myself and although I dont have any financial regrets, I am rather stuck without moving the family to a rental for what could be a few years.



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 1,786 ✭✭✭DownByTheGarden


    You are one of the few i believe.

    Most people suffer some sort of buyers remorse, for anything, and then spend a lot of energy convincing themselves, and especially others, that they have done the write thing and have no regrets. for example all of the people who bought EVs lately and cant charge at home so its costing them a fortune.

    In your case if you are stepping back and thinking about it as you should, but would you really have been better off not buying when you did and renting now? Most of us wish we had bought something better than when we had bought, otherwise you would bnevr have any such thing as a second time buyer.

    Up to a couple of years ago i would have been all for renting and not buying til you settle down. If come to the realization now that if i were to go back again I would buy the most expensive house I could afford. If I could only afford a shed I would buy that. Simply to get out of the rental market that is already down the toilet and headed for the waste pipe into the ocean at this point. I see no good outcome for anyone renting nowadays anymore. It has been let go too far.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 4,994 Mod ✭✭✭✭GoldFour4


    I bought about 18 months ago and have the occasional thought about negative equity in the event of a 20% decline in prices. However- I look at houses the same size as mine in the same area and the typical rent is about double my mortgage. My mortgage is on a 25 year term so obviously this multiple would be higher for a 30/35 year term.

    With rent increase caps etc I can’t see much of a move towards much lower rents without a huge supply increase (which is a long way off).

    That certainly alleviates any concern in my mind about negative equity. Sure on paper we might not be in a great position for a few years but I’d much rather be in negative equity and be a bit cramped for 5 or so years (in the event of more kids) while the market goes through a cycle rather than be beholden to the rental market and forking over a much higher percentage of my take home pay.

    Post edited by GoldFour4 on


  • Registered Users Posts: 20,111 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    if prices fall in what way would you lose out? as long as you fixed in at a low interest rate and can service the mortgage you dont really lose out unless your ambition is to try buy at a low point in the market which isnt really viable for someone looking for somewhere to live.

    In any case, someone who may want to potentially trade up in the future, dropping prices are better for them.



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,115 ✭✭✭✭rob316


    Be worried about equity in your primary residence is like the people who think they are assets. IF your planning on living there for 20/25 years you are going to experience plenty of positive and negative equity periods, it really doesn't matter.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,984 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Clearly Skehan's comments hit a nerve somewhere as he has been factchecked! The Journal have rustled up some experts to rubbish his comments that we need to be wary of the risks of oversupply.

    For example:

    Ciarán Lynch, the chairman of the Report of the Joint Committee of Inquiry into the Banking Crisis, told The Journal. “But when the crash came in 2007-2008, it was caused by overvaluation, not oversupply.”

    Nothing to worry about so, as long as you believe current prices do not represent overvaluation.

    Hang on a minute, elsewhere he says we are experiencing overvaluation:

    Banking Inquiry chairman Ciarán Lynch agreed that there was little risk of an oversupply of housing. “There is an under supply in the Irish market right now which will maintain a current overvaluation in the market until the supply is adjusted to what’s required,” he said.

    So there is an overvaluation, but nothing to worry about because that has been caused by undersupply rather than excess demand.

    Good to know.

    And according to Ronan Lyons we could build 50,000 homes a year and not worry about oversupply:

    “All in, the country probably requires an average of between 45,000 and 60,000 homes built every year until mid-century. Technically, if we built 100,000 homes per year, rather than say 50,000, there would be a risk of oversupply,” Lyons said.

    TLDR: it's different this time.




  • Registered Users Posts: 3,579 ✭✭✭wassie


    I think most people who are renting would love the security that ownership brings. 'Low rental options' actually means for many people paying disproportionately high amounts of income on rent. Many are squeezed into shared accomodation as a result. Many fear being handed an eviction notice which could potentially result in homeless.

    I've had EAs also tell me in our area that the lack of rentals has meant homeowners are not trading up because they cannot get a short term let and are choosing to sit it out.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,984 ✭✭✭hometruths


    If it is all about security of ownership, how many current ftbers who are renting nice 2 bed apartments, and assuming they like the area, would buy that apartment if they had the opportunity?

    or are most would be buyers looking to buy a house rather than an apartment?



  • Registered Users Posts: 273 ✭✭Galwayhurl


    I am completely confused about the market.


    It's the time of year that listings ramp up. However, there are a similar nunber of listings (13,500 excluding sites) on Daft right now as were listed back in January, which is the usual lowest point each year. So no increase in months.


    What's going on?



  • Registered Users Posts: 617 ✭✭✭J_1980


    becaus there are hardly any net sellers (some probates) and people are scared to of moving (going to rental, market running away, hardly any options to buy).



  • Registered Users Posts: 617 ✭✭✭J_1980


    Most irish buyers are couples (double income) and only considering houses. House price inflation is far outpacing apartment inflation.



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 5,984 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Anecdotally that's what it seems like but can't find any data on that.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,245 ✭✭✭herbalplants




  • Registered Users Posts: 3,031 ✭✭✭Blut2


    "average rents about €990 a month for a 79m2/850 sq ft two-bed apartment" is insane value compared to Dublin prices. Its a huge stretch to call that as bad as Dublin, its anywhere from a half to a third the price.

    If you listed a livable apartment at the price of the first apartment being mentioned, €1,074 a month for a 3bedroom, you'd get closer to 2000 applicants in Dublin than 200.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,245 ✭✭✭herbalplants


    Yes I noticed that too but "Berliners have incomes lower than the national average. Every second household has an annual income below €16,800 and is entitled to a WBS (residency eligibility) certificate."

    Living the life



  • Registered Users Posts: 617 ✭✭✭J_1980


    You’ll never get teh 990 one

    Actual rentals are here.

    keep in min they count “Zimmer” all rooms, ie 3 Zimmer = 2bed

    all those cheap “Tauschwohnung” are only swappable vs other existing tenancies, ie not available for new arrivals.

    https://www.immobilienscout24.de/Suche/de/berlin/berlin/wohnung-mieten



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,031 ✭✭✭Blut2


    I don't have government figures to hand but the best I can see on google is showing Dublin median household income as only approx 125% of that Berlin (53k vs 42k).

    Which is absolutely a difference, but its nowhere near the 200%-300% that would be required to make the average rental prices really comparable.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,061 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Good old outsourcing making a comeback..

    Tell me this - are we still doing self certification of building work?



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,579 ✭✭✭wassie


    Generally speaking, not since 2014 with the introduction of the Building Control (Amendment) Regulations 2014.

    However owners of new single dwellings, on a single development unit, and domestic extensions can effectively get an exemption by opting-out of the requirements to obtain statutory certificates issued by the Assigned Certifier (must be a Registered Building Surveyor, Registered Architect or Chartered Engineer) and other Ancillary Certifiers.

    Im not aware of any of the retrofit schemes & grants that mandate owners to follow the BCAR process as a requirement of funding.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,697 ✭✭✭RichardAnd




  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 1,245 ✭✭✭herbalplants




Advertisement