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Leinster v Munster Build-up Tread

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  • Administrators Posts: 54,168 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    Yea, seems way wide of the mark.

    Leinster have had Munster's number for years now, but the situation this time is a bit unique. Munster are finding a bit of form. Leinster have the Euro final the week after. Leinster might rotate, but this game will define Munster's season.

    If Leinster win I don't think it'll be by more than 2 scores like bookies think.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,639 ✭✭✭snotboogie


    Is Byrne injured as well? Assuming he is fit and Kleyn is out:

    Loughman, Scannell, Archer

    Wycherly, Edogbo

    Byrne, Coombes, Hodnett

    Casey, Healy,

    Zebo, Crowley, Frisch, Daly

    Haley

    Buckley, Wycherly, Salanoa, Ahern, Kendellan, Coughlan, Carbury, Campbell



  • Posts: 0 ✭✭✭✭ Julia Juicy People


    Munster are down to Zebo starting? Wow.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    I hadn't seen anything about Kleyn being out?

    When will both sides release the injury updates?



  • Subscribers Posts: 41,915 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    If, and its a big IF, munster are without POM, Murray, Synman, Fekitoa, Barron and Nash then that 14 point spread could actually be easily beaten.

    Leinster were -18 against sharks, won by 30

    They were -7 against Toulouse, won by 24

    Depends obviously what team both sides put out, therefore i wont be laying anything until w see teh teams, and have an idea of the weather.

    Stormers -13 looks like a safer bet though



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,639 ✭✭✭snotboogie


    There isn't much between Zebo, Coombs and Campbell at the moment. Most likely to get the nod is Zebo. I think Campbell adds a bit more spark than Coombs off the bench. 10, 12, 13 is interesting too. They could go Crowley, Scannell, Frisch, with Healy on the bench but I think Healy, Crowley, Frisch with Carbury on the bench gets the best players in the 23. Much less likely but they could also possibly go Crowley, Frisch, Coombs with Healy on the bench.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,757 ✭✭✭✭AdamD


    Haven't Munster gotten 6 injuries from the weekend? Leinster regularly hit these handicaps by putting on scores in the final quarter, in otherwise close games.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,827 ✭✭✭Bogwoppit


    I can see Leinster winning this by 20+, Munster have too many injuries and just don’t have the depth.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 10,735 Mod ✭✭✭✭aloooof


    I think we are likely to have a similar number of injuries as we did for the game in the Aviva earlier in the season, I fear, if not more.

    On top of those injured be Glasgow, we’re also missing Earls and Conway at least. Ahern and Edogbo just back from injury? Possibly more.

    I think -10 could be generous.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,331 ✭✭✭Former Former Former


    Everyone seems to assume Nash will be out, but most players who fail a HIA are grand to line out the following week. Likewise I'd be very surprised if Murray doesn't appear.

    Snyman is a different case since he had a full on concussion in his previous game.



  • Posts: 0 ✭✭✭✭ Julia Juicy People


    Leinster have a pile of injuries as well. And will rest even more.


    Sexton, Lowe, Henshaw, Kelleher, TOB, Ruddock, Osborne, Ryan all injured or at best unclear of availability. That's 8 players who could all comfortably start this game.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Think TOB is fine, and would expect him to play - he was out doing the warm ups on Saturday with the squad.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Leinster's excuses > Munster's excuses



  • Subscribers Posts: 41,915 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    my predicted leinster team:

    Milne, Sheehan, Ala'alatoa

    Baird, Jenkins

    Deegan, Conan, Penny/Connors

    JGP, H Byrne

    Kearny, Henshaw, Ringrose, JOB

    Keenan

    porter, kelleher/mckee, healy, mccarty, penny/connors, Luke mc, R Byrne, Larmour



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,956 ✭✭✭TRC10


    Nash would be a huge loss. He's been comfortably Munster's best back this season.



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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    I'd be quite similar, but think Kelleher/McKee will be the two hookers; and think JOB will start at 15 with potentially TOB on the right wing. Wouldn't be shocked to see Ngatai / Frawley again in the centres, with Ringrose in the 23 shirt.



  • Moderators, Arts Moderators Posts: 35,530 Mod ✭✭✭✭pickarooney


    Is Furlong injured again? I think we need to plan for a WC without him if his calf still isn't right.



  • Moderators, Arts Moderators Posts: 35,530 Mod ✭✭✭✭pickarooney


    There seems to be some chicanery with the ticketing. People with Leinster IPs are been given practically free tickets for what's basically a training session against a pub side and Munster fans are being forced to cough up their communion money for what's essentially a world cup final for them.



  • Posts: 0 ✭✭✭✭ Julia Juicy People


    So all the Munster HIAs are out for the weekend. Really is a pity, absolutely hate seeing those sorts of injuries. But caution is the right call.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,331 ✭✭✭Former Former Former


    most players who fail a HIA are grand to line out the following week

    This aged well



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  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 10,735 Mod ✭✭✭✭aloooof


    You’re not having a good time of it with Munster-related predictions lately, FFF. ;)



  • Registered Users Posts: 341 ✭✭bingobango12


    Is there not now a 10 day window to stop players being able to play the following week? Could be wrong but almost positive that is now the case so don’t think Nash or the rest of the players that failed their HIAs will make it.



  • Posts: 0 ✭✭✭✭ Julia Juicy People


    You'd have to guess POM won't make it either. I don't think he'd have taken himself off it was something not overly serious.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,109 ✭✭✭SaoPaulo41


    Munster hit by big injury blows as four players ruled out of Leinster clash https://the42.ie/6062875

    Murray, Nash, Fekitoa, Synman definitely out, POM and Barron major doubts



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 27,465 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    Think it depends on the post match assessment rather than the in game one?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,757 ✭✭✭✭AdamD


    They do but I think we're well aware that 6 injuries to Munster and 6 to Leinster isn't overly comparable. FYI Kelleher was involved in the warm up on Saturday so may be available.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,156 ✭✭✭✭Foxtrol


    Not really buying the 'free hit' narrative for Munster that I've heard being pushed by a few in the media today.

    How successful their season is seen as being is decided by this game.

    Losing wouldn't make it a failure but a loss to a rotated Leinster team with at least one eye on the following weekend, especially by the margin the bookies think, would hardly be seen as a successful season.

    There is a decent amount of pressure on that team.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Nah, I don't think so.

    Think getting to this point makes it a successful season for them; there's no way people thought they'd be top 4 after the opening 5 or 6 rounds of games. The injury toll they've suffered as well means there is virtually zero pressure on them this week.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,156 ✭✭✭✭Foxtrol


    I very much doubt the team's goals at the start of the season were to finish 5th in the URC, get very heavily beaten in the URC semi final, and to get very heavily beaten in the round of 16 in the CC.

    Munster hit a low ebb and they should take some positives from fighting back and improving over the season but missing their overall season goals wouldn't/shouldn't be looked at as a success in good team cultures.

    Maybe for fans injuries take off the pressure but I would see it the opposite for players. Conceptually, sure it could give freedom, but much more likely is players having to take on more responsibilities with front liners out and knowing they have less support which only adds pressure, especially if things aren't going your way early in a knockout scenario.



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  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 10,735 Mod ✭✭✭✭aloooof


    I very much doubt the team's goals at the start of the season were to finish 5th in the URC

    At the start of the season, maybe not. But we were 14th after 7 games.

    I think everyone would agree new coaching teams deserve time. (Famously, didn’t Schmidt lose something like his first 5 games?).

    In that context, with young players being consistently backed and with a very new game plan, I think it’s pretty reasonable to see the seasons as a success tbh, almost regardless of what happens on Saturday.

    Particularly with the injuries.

    Post edited by aloooof on


  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 27,465 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    He lost three of his first four.

    I thought Munster would struggle to qualify for Europe at one point, so I think their recovery in the second half of the season (that home loss to Glasgow aside) has been good.

    Its hard to comment much on the game and what it means until we see the teams though.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,156 ✭✭✭✭Foxtrol


    That is a fine mindset for a fan but I'd hate for my team to be sitting there a week where their season could end by being beaten by the biggest rival and feel their season is already 'a success' even in a loss by using the excuse that they played poorly earlier in the season and lowered expectations.

    Seeing this as 'a free hit' internally would say terrible things about the culture at a team.

    I really don't see the Munster team feeling that way - it is just a narrative that is being pushed by fans and Munster friendly media to avoid potential pain later.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 10,735 Mod ✭✭✭✭aloooof


    But I doubt the team do see it that way. So where’s the issue?



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,156 ✭✭✭✭Foxtrol


    Maybe ask the poster who disagreed with my OP, which was making that exact point.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 10,735 Mod ✭✭✭✭aloooof


    This one?

    Nah, I don't think so. 

    Think getting to this point makes it a successful season for them; there's no way people thought they'd be top 4 after the opening 5 or 6 rounds of games. The injury toll they've suffered as well means there is virtually zero pressure on them this week.

    I’m not sure there’s anything there you could specifically say mentions what the team think.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,920 ✭✭✭✭stephen_n




  • Registered Users Posts: 12,920 ✭✭✭✭stephen_n


    I think it’s fair to say Leinster have considerably better depth.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,156 ✭✭✭✭Foxtrol


    Yes, that is the one.

    My original post claimed the team will feel pressure due to how they think success of their season is tied to the result on Saturday and this poster disagreed. Not sure what more specifically you're looking for.

    If we're already at the pedantic stage of attempted fan point scoring on Monday then this build-up is going to be a joy.



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  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 10,735 Mod ✭✭✭✭aloooof


    If we're already at the pedantic stage of attempted fan point scoring on Monday then this build-up is going to be a joy.

    Agreed……



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,571 ✭✭✭ersatz


    I agree with this. I had high hopes for Munster at the start of the season as I thought Snyman's return would make a difference and they had another few players who ended last season in great form and who had a fantastic tour to NZ. The start was a car crash but they've turned it around and I'd say they are feeling good about where the team is at currently given the story of this season and all the current injuries notwithstanding. None of that means anything if they haven't closed the gap with Leinster though, and none of the players will consider a loss to be anything other than the full stop on what turns out to be a very bad season. I think POM, Murray, Earls, Zebo and the other senior players would be raging to be so far off the pace in Europe, never mind the URC. It's still Munster ffs.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,331 ✭✭✭Former Former Former


    that home loss to Glasgow aside

    There was also the 50 points conceded in the European round of 16...

    I think this season has definitely been one of progress for Munster, but that progress hasn't always been linear.

    We've seen a few guys come through to the first XV and definitely an improvement in the style of play - but still there's a concern that the depth of squad isn't good enough to really challenge in Europe.

    I think win or lose on Saturday, we'll have to wait until next season to really know where we stand.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 10,735 Mod ✭✭✭✭aloooof


    I don’t think anyone expected Munster to really challenge in Europe this season tho.

    (And it always tickles me when you use “we” while talking about Munster, particularly when used in a thread about a game vs Leinster ;)



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,258 ✭✭✭✭Buer


    I think an issue for Munster (and this will almost always be ongoing) is that you really need either a) a squad with significant depth of talent or b) a very good injury profile (which is increasingly difficult). The rationale in particular for the former is that players will inevitably move on and you need new players ready and available to step straight into the jersey and perform to the same level if standards are to be maintained.

    In the next 15 months, it's conceivable that POM, Murray, Archer and John Ryan all walk away. There might be people ready to step in to their jerseys but the overall 23 (and it's very much a 23 man game now) will weaken without significant signings or younger players reaching another level.

    Consistent success is almost always a matter of trying to improve a team whilst fighting the clock for certain players. In 18 months, Tadhg Beirne will be almost 34, RG Snyman is potentially gone elsewhere. It's a tough situation. I'd advocate for a couple more NIQ signings for Munster (and Ulster) to plug some gaps if it can be worked into the finances.

    This weekend will largely depend on what sort of team Leinster field and their mindset for the game ahead of the following weekend. But the Munster bench will be inexperienced at best and, more likely, a stand out weak area.

    If POM and Barron are ruled out, I imagine the bench will be something along the lines of Buckley, Wycherley, Salanoa, Edogbo, JOD, Kendellan, Cronin, Scannell. That bench can come on and dig in for the team to hold out Leinster but if they're coming into a game and behind, I don't see them as having the ability to change things.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,331 ✭✭✭Former Former Former


    No, but challenging in Europe has to be the goal in the next two years. The point was more that hammering Leinster, getting hammered by Leinster or somewhere in between will be hard to interpret until we get deep into next season or even beyond.

    As Buer notes, there's a big wave of retirements looming, and it's finally looking like Fekitoa will be a loss so even keeping the current level as a baseline will be tough. I have no clue what Nankivell is like, Sean O'Brien is decent but not top-drawer.

    [And by any sane definition, I'm a devout Munster fan]



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  • Subscribers Posts: 41,915 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    Nakiville is certainly a step down from (current form) Fekitoa, but the main pluses are:

    1. hes young enough but experienced at 26 years of age with 7 seasons of super rugby experience

    2. hes utility, with an ability to cover both 12 and 13 to a high degree, and wing if required.

    similar to james lowe, hes in that level just below the all blacks and at 26 it looks like his chance to grab a black jersey is gone. Is he someone you could build a back line around? possibly, he has a power game along with a high skill level. When you consider the dearth of centres coming through the munster academy previously and currently he could turn out to be a very important signing.



  • Posts: 0 ✭✭✭✭ Julia Juicy People


    Thornley going full on pashun, honesty, nobody-beats-Munster-twice bolloxology on MNR. If that's what Munster are relying on for the weekend they're screwed.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,877 ✭✭✭ionadnapokot


    Not that simple. Unfortunately and amazingly.

    Failed HIA 1 BUT Pass HIA 2 & 3 - Player can return to play on DAY 7.

    e.g. Sexton farce v NZ 1st test and played 2nd test 7 days later.

    NOTE: Player must have "No concussion history" & "They will need to complete the 6 stages of their individualised rehabilitation AND consult with an Independent Concussion Consultant (ICC) prior to an earliest return to play of 7 days."

    There is also the scenario of return to play "less than 10 days after their injury" and "earliest return to play of 12 days" as of July 1st 2022

    https://www.world.rugby/the-game/player-welfare/medical/concussion/hia-protocol

    Glad Fekitoa, Murray, Nash and Snyman are not playing this wkend.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,920 ✭✭✭✭stephen_n




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,880 ✭✭✭Hippo


    He comes out with this every single time, has done for years.



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