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I Love Punting , Providing Selections & Chatting Gibberish ; & I Intend To Do So On Hyah

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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,165 ✭✭✭hayrabit


    for anyone what didn't see @Concorde finishing 2nd, when should have won like the 1.01 in-running odds suggested he would

    28days Pat got for that crazy/cocky/stupid ride back in April 20th @Chelmsford


    😲😲😲


    me horse (well: me pick 🙂) won , so weren't so bad pour moi 😃


    think ur right our j@u - looking at vids far better (better heheheggh 😛) than trying to make sense of form in these few days' meets - what's made declarations so far . mediocre horses and form, Going changes on turf etc etc

    some days looking at racecards and me think: "not so bad, looks easy enough today...." for to find several picks.... not so much atm 😢


    me had two "stellar" -(imho)- picks in times recent 😁 ..... one at Salisbury and one today at Roscommon, but yep, 'abandoned' , FFS , Meets 😦

    that lad o'er on another site ya might have seen j@u - there recently; him what had a very bullish sounding ~6/1 nap - what won at 10s !! only a cupla days ago......

    .....him be laughing at us me reckoneth 🙂 surely be some "purple-patch" possibility for us in nxt 5days or so, 'nd we can both of us get at least two apiece at not unfriendly prices - YAAYY we shall hope 😊


    anyroad , not too confident on picking for nxt cupla days on t'Flat, 'nd t'Wench 'as us offputted from Jumps' fare 🙉


    😊



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,165 ✭✭✭hayrabit


    no joy there - ran okay early, but game over 2fsout for Deep Spirit

    Astronomica wins @12s


    early fav 2nd , and strangely/well punted on Simcock jolly, way behind the first three (what finished within 2lgths of each other)


    couldn't have found that Astronomica - hate when horses with that (look at "form" 😏😴 lines for her first four runs) profile go win - they be almost impossible for to find by a lowly judge like me - agree with the wenchitty minx @joannamason when she say: HARD !


    ur no wrong jo 😁



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,165 ✭✭✭hayrabit


    same comments applicable to Doctor Khan Junior , the 33/1 winner of last race, the 8,45 Ncs


    couldn't have found that Astronomica - hate when horses with that (look at "form" 😏😴 lines for her first four runs) profile go win - they be almost impossible for to find by a lowly judge like me


    could say the exact same thing about winner of last race at Newcastle - another close to impossible (but very lightly raced and unexposed tho) winner to find 😓

    me own pick Gowanlad ran middling - might've had a slmmest of slimmest winning squeaks, but had to take a tug when trying to come for a run about 2fs out (from off a mid-div position) , and that were it for Madi Patzelt mount,,, dunno how far he was beat in the end

    😊



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,165 ✭✭✭hayrabit


    finished 3rd last - beaten ~ 10lgths Gowanlad was in the end

    green shoots methinks. didn't see horse's last few races (just the formlines is all) where it said: "in rear , broke late , etc,,," ; tho horse weren't quickest from the lids today, he weren't that slow neither

    impossible to say if horse could have been in position to make challenge come business end, as run (which came to an end owing traffic problems) horse started to come with (jury has to be out as regards would the horse have seen run thru all the way to the line, tbbh) , came to an abrupt end.....

    .... don't know, but horse were within 4/5lengths and close to far wing (when the principals were all in middle of track) , so can't rule out that he was capable (if a bit unlucky tho) of going close today ... which means he's 'back to form' so , which aint too generous a way of looking at it imho..

    will deffo put GOWANLAD in us notebook when me gets around to it 🙂 🙂


    g'nite :)



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,064 ✭✭✭j@utis


    some days looking at racecards and me think: "not so bad, looks easy enough today...." for to find several picks.... not so much atm 😢

    There's not much to choose from today either, it's just too many ??? in most of the races but...

    We risk it for the biscuit in 3:25 Lingers with How Hard Can It Be 4/1 in case the hot fav Solanna is not feeling like it today under the penalty and back onto the polytrack. HHCIB went very close over CD in her last two starts, she's doesn't seem to be the most consistent but you never know...



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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,064 ✭✭✭j@utis


    This would be my kinda race to work on but look at the top four in the betting - all coming back from their winter holidays, so which one of them is ready today? Thapa VC is in my notebook but it's all old news from 2022.




  • Registered Users Posts: 3,064 ✭✭✭j@utis


    Good luck finding this one 🤣

    Windsor Pass is my 2nd bet for today in the last in Newcastle. That's about it, I'm going outside to get some Vitamin D.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,064 ✭✭✭j@utis


    No good. The next 4:35 is delayed in Lingfield because it's... raining? probably lighting, I can't see that on the video.

    *edit, yes, thunder and lightening very very frightening.




  • Registered Users Posts: 2,165 ✭✭✭hayrabit


    that 5.05 Lingfield looks proper tough race to solve - even with the 3 nons leaving the field at a reasonable 8 runners to sift thru , and discountiong the layoffs as being insignificant still makes it very tough race.

    can't make head nor tail of it; plus there's the favourites and why they're holding top two market positions is a tough one to assess (lightly raced no doubt),,, i certainly can't see Shockwaves ~ 11/8 & King Cabo ~ 10/3 winning and nor can i rule them out

    Butler's KAARANAH ~ 10/1 might just have to do here 🙂 he's a horse what seems to want further - yet here he is trying a mile... has won before over a mile, but that was on turf in Galway '21 and, also, it were ~ 70yds north of a mile

    dunno what the track is like and it seems to be pi$$ing it down there, and with the field not appearing to contain any out and out frontrunners, the not very lodjical thinking is: it could be slow early doors, which could leave it a sprint 2/3 furlongs from home, and anything can win

    that beast will do me for small each way



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,165 ✭✭✭hayrabit


    the jolly in the well delayed 4.35Lingfield looks lump job @ 10/11

    only looked at the fav, and he could easily be ~ 4/7

    no looking at the rest nd no bet here

    g'luck

    :)



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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,064 ✭✭✭j@utis


    In 5:05 Ellade interests me but not enough to have a bet on.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,165 ✭✭✭hayrabit


    no joy in t'5.05 :(



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,165 ✭✭✭hayrabit


    8.45

    ANIF 5/1 WIN NAP

    former CD winner - running well over 7fs recently and step back up to a mile should suit.

    trappy race, but likely Johnston's Asdaa will make running and it be a true-run race

    selection has drifted from 3s earlier - generally don't pay no mind to drifts, so at prices current, Micky Herrington's 9yo is deservant of t'ultimate -in advance as these things go- commendation from me, in getting ye nappe vote

    :)

    g'l



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,064 ✭✭✭j@utis


    One for tomorrow 20:30 Kempton - Gwendolina 6/1, she's pulled like mad over 8f here lto, now dropped back to 7f that she's won over previously, chances.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,064 ✭✭✭j@utis


    So which Ziggy is gonna win tomorrow?




  • Registered Users Posts: 3,064 ✭✭✭j@utis


    I'm disappointed to see that Another Batt is only @9/2 in 4:55 Chester tomorrow.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,165 ✭✭✭hayrabit




  • Registered Users Posts: 3,064 ✭✭✭j@utis


    Nope, neither Windsor Pass I was on, Windsor P got stuck in traffic to some degree, I'll keep her in my notebook for now. No bounty today.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,165 ✭✭✭hayrabit


    Chester - Good to Soft

    4.55

    if it's race good enough for our j@u to look at , then it's good enough for us 🙂

    for reasons various, and most of which i've forgotten, and allowing for #Goodish ground (no worse than the Good to Soft given) - #esp allowing for ground no worse than stated - i've narrowed it down to three far from confident each way picks:

    HODLER 16/1 , GORAK 9/1 & SAN ISIDRO 33/1

    mebbe do €1 win + €1ew on the three if race were immediately upcoming, but potentially lotsa rain due between now and then 😒


    all credit to ur weather map/s above missus 😃


    not liking Another Batt - is down to Class4 for first time (been pretty much racing in Class2s and 3s since 2yo days - where he ran in a cupla Class5 Novice type affairs) . the 11 box has to be seriously offputting for this race-prominent type


    not putting anyone off owt here tho - pace angles and ground are two awkward variables here, atm, and it's just far too twicky :(


    😊☺️



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,165 ✭✭✭hayrabit


    lookin ahead


    Thursday 11th May


    Chelmsford - Standard


    7,o'c


    XAVIERA is 12/1 in 'paper' prob sp. long time since her first and only run - 4th of 5 at Brighton last June. was outpaced early and ran on a tad near the end - making up some ground in last furlong. is by Twilight Son, who can get winners on Poly at 7furlongs, so that's summat of int'rest. if anywhere close to double figures and i'll go each way on this one


    Sugar Hill ~ 10/11 has had two runs, and i'm not seeing how either of those has her as a tips on shot. looks well opposable to me

    hard to give the other three what have had runs: Manila Mist ~ 12s , Profit Given ~ 10/1 & Paternoster Square ~ 12/1 , much of a chance here; and the other three are unraced, so at a complete loss over them and how they'll run

    yep, almost two days away from that race; a race what has 8 runners with 7 races between them, and, even then, it appears eminently more interesting (from a finding winners <or ones what can go well - same 'ballpark' tho> perspective, obvs - what else is there!!? 😆) than most of what's upcoming prior to it,,, 😝

    :) 🙂 :)



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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,064 ✭✭✭j@utis


    HT tipped Hodler this morning, price is gone, literally halved, which helped the price of Another Batt which is still bothering me 😂 You know those higher class horses when start going down the rankings, they drop, drop, drop until they win again, this is like 10 pound drop for Another Batt today, high draw shouldn't inconvenience held-up/mid field horse too much... I'll see if Ziggy's Pheonix delivers under Ryan Moore from the cushty stall 1, then I'm gonna re-invest that into later race 😂



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,064 ✭✭✭j@utis


    Yeay! A rare 5f event in Kempton! Watch out for a front runner drawn low... but wait... it's a novice race...



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,165 ✭✭✭hayrabit


    gl with him j@u 😊

    done none o' me nags - ground went Soft (like me more'n half expected 😒) nd me didn't allow for dat when study :(

    one of t'Ziggy's won I see - had no strong opinion there ☺️



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,064 ✭✭✭j@utis


    Pat Cosgrave doesn't look genuine in that video looking away from the camera and the presenter.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,064 ✭✭✭j@utis


    I'd like to think that Gosden team & Ryan Moore are there for double in Chester today. Ryan is on Vaguely Royal 2/1 in 4:20, it's a maiden though, not much to work on. Should I, or should I not...

    I've decided to stay away from that 4:55 mess.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,165 ✭✭✭hayrabit


    he looked sheepish enough I thought 😋

    must be mates with Spencer and Carberry 🤗 🤗 didn't work on the day, howeva 😅

    anyroad, onto punting. for reasons various, I've ruled out all me three Chester picks


    onto a (hopefully) solvable one:


    Fontwell Good (Good to Soft in places)


    5.45

    the jolly is woeful short. Hot Rod Lincoln ~4/6 might not have it his own way up front here. Shandancer (10/3 from 6/1) can make fav earn this, and Anthony Honeyball's Amalfi Bay ~ 11/2 is ex flat horse having his first go o'er t'jumps. likely to be close to pace if he can get into a rhythm, is 5yo son o' Lope De Vega


    it were only a six runner Novice Hurdle, but TZUNAMI did well to come 2nd at the course lto. it was 2+ furlongs shorter than today, and, going by formline, it appears he was all on his own out the rear, so props to him for staying in some sort of contention (winner way too good anyhow) and managing to get up for a distance second. looked to me to be by far his best hurdles' run to date, but he did need plenty of encouraging throughout race.... danger is he'll down tools or summat, but he seems to be going right way, and with eleven due to go to post, tis unlikely he'll be too lonely out rear.

    am not seeing why TZUNAMI NB is as big as 22/1 here, and he'll certainly do us each way.

    g'luck



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,165 ✭✭✭hayrabit


    😁

    Ryan is on Vaguely Royal 2/1 in 4:20, 


    not no more ! VR a non



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,165 ✭✭✭hayrabit


    4.55

    not very confident at all here. have it narrowed down to two mules here: Broken Spear & Gorak

    not too gone on Broken Spear, so GORAK 7/1 WIN gets tentative vote here. is drawn low in box three , goes well on soft ground when close to pace. looks likely to give good account mehopes

    ☺️



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,064 ✭✭✭j@utis


    Yeah, I had 0.5pt invested in it. I'll check for the reason in the stewards report tomorrow.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,064 ✭✭✭j@utis




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