May 2023 Boards weather forecast contest

The GFS projection as of 18z for the bonus is only 14 C, will edit in the 00z model run projection. I am dropping my guess to 20.5 as I don't need to go any higher to maintain position. Could be in for a big bust or else the modelling is off by an unusual margin.

(edit _ 00z GFS shows 14 C as max for the location, will enter it for NormaL as 14.5).

(has to be based on persistent overcast as thickness values could support 20-23 C with sunshine).

Updated Table of forecasts for May 2023

cannot edit so will re-post to incorporate two late forecasts.

FORECASTER ___________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max 3rd Mtdillon

200motels _____________ 12.7 _ 25.1 _ -0.7 _ 104 _ 092 ___ 16.4

Pauldry ________________12.5 _ 27.0 _ -1.1 _ 107 _ 100 ___ 16.1

Adam240610 ___________ 12.5 _ 26.7 _ -0.1 _ 080 _ 135 ___ 16.6

Tae laidir ______________ 12.5 _ 26.1 _ +1.4 _ 118 _ 094 ___ 16.0

MrSkinner _____________ 12.5 _ 25.0 _ -0.6 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 24.1

sryanbruen ____________ 12.5 _ 24.9 _ -0.9 _ 105 _ 095 ___ 17.1

Artane2002 ____________ 12.4 _ 24.8 _ -0.3 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 17.3

M.T. Cranium ___________ 12.3 _ 27.5 _ -0.5 _ 080 _ 125 ___ 20.5

Sunflower3 _____________12.2 _ 25.1 _ -0.8 _ 090 _ 095 ___ 17.3

Gonzo _________________12.2 _ 23.8 _ -0.8 _ 096 _ 102 ___ 16.7

Dasa29 ________________12.0 _ 24.0 _ -1.0 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 17.0

Kindred Spirit ___________12.0 _ 24.0 _ -1.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 17.0

___ Con sensus _________ 12.0 _ 24.8 _ -0.8 _ 100 _ 099 ___ 16.7

Cornerstonelad __________12.0 _ 23.8 _ -1.1 _ 100 _ 090 ___ 19.7

Bsal _________ (-9) _____ 12.0 _ 23.0 _ -1.0 _ 090 _ 112 ___ 18.0

john mac _____ (-1) _____ 11.9 _ 25.5 _ -0.5 _ 098 _ 100 ___ 16.2

Joe Public ______________ 11.9 _ 24.2 _ -2.1 _ 124 _ 091 ___ 14.1

aah yes _______ (-3) ____ 11.9 _ 24.1 _ -1.2 _ 089 _ 111 ___ 16.8

Rameire _______________ 11.9 _ 23.4 _ +0.8 _ 105 _ 099 ___ 17.0

DOCARCH ______________11.9 _ 23.2 _ -1.2 _ 087 _ 105 ___ 15.3

Mr stonewall ____________11.9 _ 22.7_ +1.2 _ 112 _ 088 ___ 14.3

Appledrop ______________11.8 _ 23.2 _ -1.2 _ 120 _ 092 ___ 14.2

waterways _____________ 11.7 _ 27.6 _ +1.1 _ 109 _ 097 ___ 16.7

Dacogawa ______________11.7 _ 26.0 _ -1.0 _ 136 _ 086 ___ 15.5

___ NormaL ____________11.0 _ 24.5 _ -1.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 14.5

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So you may have noted from my forecast thread that I am taking a break from internet for a few days away, however, I had this list of forecasts ready to post earlier, forgot to post it, and had a look at the data to discover that 19.2 was the value, which only meant that top two forecasts in order needed to be moved down to turn it into a list of errors instead. I will maintain my general idea of a break from thinking by leaving scoring to my return around Monday 8th with the first week summary. Meanwhile I wonder if any of you would like to suggest a scoring system for this outcome, a lot of forecasts were in a fairly small range and even the furthest out were no different from numerical weather guidance (which on this one occasion seems to be further out than usual, must have been an expectation of total overcast given the other parameters). I may score these between 4 and 10 as a result of worse outcomes being avoided.

Anyway, these are the forecasts, scoring to be determined after my brief time away ...

Also, I imagine that any MAX or MIN candidates will be tracked by some of you, thanks in advance as always.

Cornerstonelad __________19.7

Bsal ___________________18.0

M.T. Cranium ___________ 20.5

Sunflower3 _____________17.3

Artane2002 ____________ 17.3

sryanbruen ____________ 17.1

Dasa29 ________________17.0

Kindred Spirit ___________17.0

Rameire _______________ 17.0

aah yes _______________ 16.8

Gonzo _________________16.7

waterways _____________ 16.7

___ Con sensus _________ 16.7

Adam240610 ___________ 16.6

200motels _____________ 16.4

john mac ______________ 16.2

Pauldry ________________16.1

Tae laidir ______________ 16.0

DOCARCH ______________15.3

Dacogawa ______________15.5

___ NormaL ____________ 14.5

Mr stonewall ____________ 14.3

MrSkinner ______________ 24.1

Appledrop ______________ 14.2

Joe Public ______________ 14.1

_________________________________

I note that a Mr - Mr compromise was a perfect forecast. Just sayin ...

After first week ...

IMT on 13.0, 2.7 above normal.

MAX 19.7, MIN not tracked

PRC 127% of normal.

SUN 56.2% of normal.

BONUS scoring (decided to be relatively lenient to lower scores with a superbonus for our one really close effort.

FORECASTER ___________ Max 3rd MtD ___ Score

Cornerstonelad __________19.7 _________ 11

Bsal ___________________18.0 _________ 10

M.T. Cranium ___________ 20.5 _________ 10

Sunflower3 _____________17.3 __________ 9

Artane2002 ____________ 17.3 __________ 9

sryanbruen _____________17.1 __________ 9

Dasa29 ________________17.0 __________ 8

Kindred Spirit ___________17.0 __________ 8

Rameire _______________ 17.0 __________ 8

aah yes _______________ 16.8 __________ 7

Gonzo _________________16.7 __________ 7

waterways _____________ 16.7 __________ 7

___ Con sensus _________ 16.7 __________ 7

Adam240610 ___________ 16.6 __________ 7

200motels _____________ 16.4 __________ 6

john mac ______________ 16.2 __________ 6

Pauldry ________________16.1 __________ 6

Tae laidir ______________ 16.0 __________ 6

Dacogawa ______________15.5 __________ 5

DOCARCH ______________15.3 __________ 5

___ NormaL ____________ 14.5 __________ 4

Mr stonewall ____________ 14.3 __________ 4

MrSkinner ______________ 24.1 __________ 4

Appledrop ______________ 14.2 __________ 4

Joe Public ______________ 14.1 __________ 4

_________________________________

Not sure if it is really the MIN but 3.2 at Dublin overnight (Sat morning), could be about as low as we've had so far. (check other locations that don't report on meteociel).

Noting that our lowest MAX forecast is 22.8 and our highest MIN is +1.4. Our lowest PRC forecasts are 80%.

Yes, MIN will be at least 1.8 (have seen that value for Mullingar) with three other locations unknown at this point.

After three weeks ...

IMT on 12.4 C, the third week average was 12.0, 0.6 above normal. Model guidance suggests a slight rise in the average to around 12.7 C by end of month.

MAX 21.1, MIN 1.6 ... Both of these may be revised slightly.

PRC has fallen to 87% of normal after a dry week that had an average of only 20%. If it remains dry we are only guaranteed 57% and even a 50% rate now to end only produces a result of 73%. The current GFS guidance says zero rainfall (3 mm around Malin) for the rest of the month. As our lowest PRC forecasts are 80% that would certainly trigger minimum progression.

SUN has edged up a bit to 78% with the weekly average 85%. If the rest of the month had exactly normal sunshine the outcome would be around 86%, and to reach normal the rate now to 31st needs to be 140%, so I would guess the outcome might be close to 90% (requires 118% now to 31st). This is the sunniest time of year with an average of six hours a day, so 118% would represent an average of around seven hours.

BONUS already scored.

_______________________________

A look at scoring if my estimates as shown in the table below verified ... I have been generous with MAX but will go with the highest MIN forecast (1.4) just below the current MIN value of 1.6. That would create a "hammer" situation for boosted scoring, especially for the boosts for values below 0.0 as the first few forecasts behind the top scoring effort are similar so they don't lose points to the hammer (which is essentially the average of your raw score and your boosted score).

This table will be adjusted if we get a lower MIN and/or if any other trends need a significant revision.

Preliminary scoring estimates for May 2023

FORECASTER ___________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN ___ Max 3rd Mtdillon

Estimates ______________12.7_24.0_1.4_060_090 ____ 19.2 // ___ TOTALS

200motels _____________ 25 _ 09 _ 06*_ 07*_ 10 ___ 06 _____ 63

Pauldry ________________23 _ 00 _ 04*_ 07*_ 08 ___ 06 _____ 48

Adam240610 ___________ 23 _ 00 _ 10*_ 15*_ 01 ___ 07 _____ 56

Tae laidir ______________ 23 _ 00 _ 20*_ 04*_ 09 ___ 06 _____ 62

MrSkinner _____________ 23 _ 10 _ 06*_ 12*_ 04 ___ 04 _____ 59

sryanbruen ____________ 23 _ 11 _ 04*_ 07*_ 09 ___ 09 _____ 63

Artane2002 ____________ 22 _ 12 _ 09*_ 06*_ 10 ___ 09 _____ 68

M.T. Cranium ___________ 21 _ 00 _ 08*_ 15*_ 03 ___ 10 _____ 57

Sunflower3 _____________20 _ 09 _ 06*_ 12*_ 09 ___ 09 _____ 65

Gonzo _________________20 _ 18 _ 06*_ 10*_ 08 ___ 07 _____ 69

Dasa29 ________________18 _ 20 _ 04*_ 12*_ 06 ___ 08 _____ 68

Kindred Spirit ___________18 _ 20 _ 01*_ 08*_ 08 ___ 08 _____ 63

___ Con sensus _________ 18 _ 12 _ 06*_ 08*_ 08 ___ 07 _____ 59

Cornerstonelad __________18 _ 18 _ 04*_ 08*_ 10 ___ 11 _____ 69

Bsal _________ (-9) _____ 18 _ 10 _ 04*_ 12*_ 06 ___ 10 _60-9=51

john mac _____ (-1) _____ 17 _ 05 _ 08*_ 09*_ 08 ___ 06 _63-1=62

Joe Public ______________ 17 _ 18 _ 00 _ 02*_ 10 ___ 04 _____ 51

aah yes _______ (-3) ____ 17 _ 19 _ 04*_ 13*_ 06 ___ 07 _66-3=63

Rameire _______________ 17 _ 14 _ 16*_ 07*_ 08 ___ 08 _____ 70

DOCARCH ______________17 _ 12 _ 04*_ 13*_ 07 ___ 05 _____ 58

Mr stonewall ____________17 _ 07 _ 19*_ 05*_ 10 ___ 01 _____ 59

Appledrop ______________16 _ 12 _ 04*_ 03*_ 10 ___ 01 _____ 46

waterways _____________ 15 _ 00 _ 18*_ 06*_ 09 ___ 07 _____ 55

Dacogawa ______________15 _ 00 _ 05*_ 00 _ 09 ___ 05 _____ 34

___ NormaL ____________ 08 _ 15 _ 01*_ 08*_ 08 ___ 01 _____ 41

__ * scores boosted by minimum progression

==========================

(actual forecasts)

200motels _____________ 12.7 _ 25.1 _ -0.7 _ 104 _ 092 ___ 16.4

Pauldry ________________12.5 _ 27.0 _ -1.1 _ 107 _ 100 ___ 16.1

Adam240610 ___________ 12.5 _ 26.7 _ -0.1 _ 080 _ 135 ___ 16.6

Tae laidir ______________ 12.5 _ 26.1 _ +1.4 _ 118 _ 094 ___ 16.0

MrSkinner _____________ 12.5 _ 25.0 _ -0.6 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 24.1

sryanbruen ____________ 12.5 _ 24.9 _ -0.9 _ 105 _ 095 ___ 17.1

Artane2002 ____________ 12.4 _ 24.8 _ -0.3 _ 110 _ 090 ___ 17.3

M.T. Cranium ___________ 12.3 _ 27.5 _ -0.5 _ 080 _ 125 ___ 20.5

Sunflower3 _____________12.2 _ 25.1 _ -0.8 _ 090 _ 095 ___ 17.3

Gonzo _________________12.2 _ 23.8 _ -0.8 _ 096 _ 102 ___ 16.7

Dasa29 ________________12.0 _ 24.0 _ -1.0 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 17.0

Kindred Spirit ___________12.0 _ 24.0 _ -1.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 17.0

___ Con sensus _________ 12.0 _ 24.8 _ -0.8 _ 100 _ 099 ___ 16.7

Cornerstonelad __________12.0 _ 23.8 _ -1.1 _ 100 _ 090 ___ 19.7

Bsal _________ (-9) _____ 12.0 _ 23.0 _ -1.0 _ 090 _ 112 ___ 18.0

john mac _____ (-1) _____ 11.9 _ 25.5 _ -0.5 _ 098 _ 100 ___ 16.2

Joe Public ______________ 11.9 _ 24.2 _ -2.1 _ 124 _ 091 ___ 14.1

aah yes _______ (-3) ____ 11.9 _ 24.1 _ -1.2 _ 089 _ 111 ___ 16.8

Rameire _______________ 11.9 _ 23.4 _ +0.8 _ 105 _ 099 ___ 17.0

DOCARCH ______________11.9 _ 23.2 _ -1.2 _ 087 _ 105 ___ 15.3

Mr stonewall ____________11.9 _ 22.7_ +1.2 _ 112 _ 088 ___ 14.3

Appledrop ______________11.8 _ 23.2 _ -1.2 _ 120 _ 092 ___ 14.2

waterways _____________ 11.7 _ 27.6 _ +1.1 _ 109 _ 097 ___ 16.7

Dacogawa ______________11.7 _ 26.0 _ -1.0 _ 136 _ 086 ___ 15.5

___ NormaL ____________11.0 _ 24.5 _ -1.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 14.5

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