Turkish Presidential Election

That would be the same Gulenist movement that launched a coup against him and the Turkish government in 2016, with limited army support and tried to kill him ? And failed?

Will be a close run thing.

I see one of the opposition leaders dropped out of the race amid suggestions that he was going to split the opposition vote. Clearly, there's a real feeling that they can topple Erdogan. What happens after will be interesting. Breaking Erdogan's hold and re-positioning the country will take some doing.

There was something about Erdogan falling ill recently and disappearing for a few days. I wonder will this be used to explain him "not being up for the fight" if he loses.

Gulen and his movement, as far as I can see, want Turkey to be an Islamic state - with them in charge. I don't see the election brings them any closer to that goal?

Their downfall was falling out with their ally Erdogan.

That may have been true in the past but since the turn of the century the role of the military in politics has been increasingly diminished.

First we had the wish for EU ascension; The EU would not tolerate a member state being in a position whereby the military feel empowered to interfere in politics, and rightfully so. This saw the first push to put the military back in the barracks. As AKP was now in power and received (relatively) broad support they used the opportunity to remove certain institutions connected to education and media from the direct influence of the military, so further lessening their power.

Second, the military increasingly failed to curb PKK attacks within Turkey, this diminishing their credibility amongst the general populace.

Third, a 2010 referendum further restricted the power of the military, and granted the government more power over the judiciary. 2013 then saw the abolishing of the act that allowed the military 'guardianship' over the political process.

The Ergenekon trials carried on about this time gave the Gulenists the opportunity to begin de-secularising the military, an opportunity gratefully received. The 2016 coup attempt then gave Tayyip the opportunity to cleanse the institutions of 'FETO', another opportunity gratefully received and used to mop up any real remaining opposition.

The military had two recent opportunities to flex; The S400 deal with Russia, undertaken despite protests from the US, long the military's choice of partner, saw no protest or attempt to stop the deal from the military, despite it meaning losing access to the F-35 programme. Second, the recent quakes in Eastern Turkey; Traditionally the military would have dug in and helped out, this time they remained confined to barracks as the government failed to request their help. Previously, there wouldn't have been a request, the military would just take it upon themselves and act.

That they failed to act in both situations would indicate an acceptance on their part that they are subordinate to the civilian institutions. I can't see the situation arising that would require them to intervene, but if a situation were to arise I do not see them leaping into action.

I don’t think that’s the Turkish military anymore. Whatever the 2011 “Operation Sledgehammer” really was, the arrests and trials seemed to break the secular hold on the military.

Erdogan and his Gullenist allies were blamed in some quarters for fabricating it to further their Islamist agenda.

I’m sure there are some remnants of a secular “deep state” (a Turkish expression originally) in the Turkish military. But I don’t know how they could take any concerted and successful action against a government at this stage.

The fact that highest ranking members of the Turkish military could be imprisoned on fairly flimsy evidence showed that there was a new sheriff in town.