FF/FG/Green Government - Part 3 - Threadbanned User List in OP

Well said CM👏

The frightening thing is that €500 million Children’s hospital has QUADRUPLED in cost, and years behind schedule. Also now, it’s ( as You say ) not only toxicated FG, but also their 2 bed partners masquerading as a coalition.

My problem with Cairns is the fact she said she will talk to all parties. After what Labour and Gilmore treated Shortall, I’d say Labour is the one party that she should not be talking with.

B&A poll has more bad news for FFG despite a Margin of Error movements.

Ireland Votes

@Ireland_Votes

POLL/POBALBHREITH — Dáil Éireann

SF: 35% (-2)

FF: 22% (+1)

FG: 17% (+2)

GP: 5% (-1)

LAB: 4%

SD: 3% (-1)

PBP/S: 1% (-1)

AON: 1% (-1)

The problem for FFG is that FG's decline is still there despite the waffle about the eviction ban decision not having an effect.

Regards...jmcc

They don't. These are first preference opinion polls. Beyond the poll-toppers, Irish GEs are battles for transfers. Even small shifts in votes can have massive effects. The swing against FG in 2002 was 5.4%. It lost around 43% of its seats. FG's current % in this poll is 17%. It only got 20.5 in the 2020 GE. On 17%, FG would be trying to keep transfers within FG candidates and that would have a second order effect on FF not getting FG transfers.

Regards...jmcc

There is a lot of variables. The candidate selection process and the number of candidates each party runs will be critical. SF is not going to make the same mistake as it did in 2020 and run too few. FG and FF may not run as many as in 2020. Both FF and FG may replace their leaders before the next GE and FG will not want a repeat of the Charlie Flanagan Black and Tans/RIC commemoration disaster. (FG was polling close to 30% before Christmas 2019 and FG support fell off a cliff when that Black and Tans/RIC commemoration effort kicked off.) Varadkar appears to be a nasty git and is a major vulnerability for FG. Martin is just creepy. The longer the period before the next GE, the more SF will occupy the centre of the political spectrum and FF/FG will be pushed to the Right of centre. The electorate is also changing (younger voters becoming eligible to vote) and that favours SF and the SocDems. The only hope for FG, at the moment, is that it will take seats from Labour (which is really not the Labour party of old and has lost its Left of centre votes). Bacik's seat in Dublin Bay South may flip back to FG. FF might also benefit from Labour losing seats. The Greens may take a major hit and could be struggling to elect three TDs in the next GE.

The usual caveats apply. B&A uses face to face polling. That makes it different from the online pollsters like RedC and Ireland Thinks. The next Ipsos/Irish Times poll could be interesting especially if it supports the B&A trends. Not sure if there's one due soon. It uses face to face polling and larger sample sizes.

Regards...jmcc

The electorate didn't agree with FFG on the Black and Tans/RIC commemoration issue and voted accordingly.

Regards...jmcc

It was specifically and factually a Black and Tans/RIC commemoration effort by Charlie Flanagan. RIC family members seemed content with a private commemoration of their RIC ancestors.

The useless Varadkar didn't even have the sense to stop him. Decent FGers were aghast at the attempt to commemorate anti-Irish terrorists, rapists and murderers (the Black and Tans). The Black and Tans were members of the RIC. A competent FG leader would have seen the problem and have shut down Flanagan's effort before it damaged FG. Coveney would have done so.

And the quantifiable damage for FG: Polling close to 30% pre-GE to 20.5% in the GE.

Regards...jmcc

SF down, FF up , FG up, all within the margin of error, but you are spinning it as "bad news" for the government.

Nothing burger if ever there was.

Are you confusing an opinion poll with a vote?

No. I am pointing out that incompetent leadership (leader installed by FG Politburo/Oireachtas party) while the FG grassroots voted overwhelmingly for Coveney) and stupid decisions lost FG seats.

Regards...jmcc

The problem with support for small parties is that it becomes geographically concentrated when it drops below about 5% in a national poll. The methodology also differs from that of RedC and Ireland Thinks. A 1% or even 2% change for a small party could, if the polls are be to believed, mean that they are gaining or losing 50% or more of their support from poll to poll. That, combined with the Margin of Error, is why these national polls can give a misleading view of the support for small parties like Labour. Apart from the serious drop in FG support in the B&A polls which has not rebounded, there's very little movement from poll to poll. The more interesting thing would be if a pollster asked about second preferences.

Regards...jmcc

Does anyone on this thread understand statistics at all?

Seemingly not.

What you are seeing in polls 1%, 2%, even 3% "change" is literally just noise. Random stochastic variation. The sample size in Irish political polls is alarmingly small.

I see an article on RTE.ie about the government extending business energy supports for another two months. Anything for householders?

It's getting worse than the Journal in here. Wall to wall juvenile nonsense.