Tesla Talk

We see what’s happening to RHD X second hand values - you can assume an X that’s in plaid guise, and also LHD, for €160,000, will depreciate even more.

it’s not unreasonable to suggest it’ll be worth €60k, maybe €70k tops, in ~5 years time.

if you can afford that depreciation, fine - but I think even paying €160k for a RHD version is already horrendously bad value to begin with. €160,000.00!

surely its the highest depreciating car available to buy today?

Only need cameras haha :)

FSD, lots of really big promises followed by under delivering and another bout of This Time For Sure!

Musk failed to deliver as usual, the list of his claims are laughable, he's a complete spoofer, you wouldn't hear it down the pub and people like yourself lap it up.

4680 cells, the cyber truck which is never gonna happen with todays battery tech from CATL, likewise the roadster another joke, which Rimac owned by Porsche can barely make for a few million and that semi truck that would be so heavy it wouldn't even be able to take a payload with 2023 tech :)

Then we have the fantasy BFR that takes you anywhere in the world, you strap your ass to big **** rocket and you get from Sydney to Dublin in 60mins :)

Mars 2026, a chip in your brain, solar city, have I missed other fantasies from that lunatic?

Oh the submarine that could have killed those kids in Thailand and when he got called out on that absurd idea, he called a former seal a paedo

But i'm sure FSD will be ready soon, we can trust Musk

Streamed live from 3pm Central / 9pm Irish time

https://youtu.be/bZNL_8bUz6A

Hop on that plane, you might make it in time 😂

Being statistically safer than a human driver is relatively easy. Stay in your lane in the daytime, don't hit the back of anything. Both fairly linear outputs based on camera/radar inputs. Adding on lane change assist and calling it Autopilot for marketing purposed has got Tesla in a lot of trouble to date.

There are clear issues with moving to "Full Self Driving" using cameras alone, in particular the contention that "better than a human" is OK. Balancing a fast rollout of an imperfect, but safer than status quo system, versus waiting / paying for even better, safer technology is a difficult decision to make.

Ultimately, I don't think Tesla will ever get to a genuine Full Self Driving using visible cameras alone. The public, nor regulators are ever going to accept the clear gaps in their approach compared to other OEM's who are coupling ultrasonic, visible cameras, various wavelength IR cameras, Lidar, thermal imaging and radar to build their AD systems.

All those sensors are a prohibitive cost today for mass market adoption, but the cost and quality of sensors are following something akin to Moore's Law, and will be feasible to install on the vast majority of vehicles.

@kirving - "Ultimately, I don't think Tesla will ever get to a genuine Full Self Driving using visible cameras alone. The public, nor regulators are ever going to accept the clear gaps in their approach compared to other OEM's who are coupling ultrasonic, visible cameras, various wavelength IR cameras, Lidar, thermal imaging and radar to build their AD systems."

Well this is the thing. Musk has always used the logic that if any self driving software is demonstrably magnitudes safer than humans, the regulators would be forced to accept that system. I find it hard to argue with that.

Regulators being forced to accept something today, doesn't mean that they will be forced to tomorrow.

In it's day a 2005 Fiat Punto was rated as 5-Star by Euro NCAP. It is orders of magnitude safer than one from 12 years prior, but 12 years later in 2017 it was retested, and scored 0 Stars. Safety technology moved on and it was left behind. It would not receive Type Approval today.

By banking on cameras, and removing radar and ultrasonic Tesla have skirted the difficult problem that is Sensor Fusion, made some impressive quick wins as a result, and then marketed the hell out of them. From business perspective, and tbh from an immediate safety perspective, fair play to them on that, it was a bold move.

Long term though, that just isn't going to satisfy regulators who will be presented with compelling arguments for the need for a full spectrum of sensors, by the Tier 1 sensor manufacturers themselves who are looking to make their products a regulatory requirement.

@sk8board "teslas current driver assistant, with the decision to move away from LiDAR, is a long way from perfect; which is what it needs to be."

I disagree, I don't think it has to be perfect. Not just yet anyway. If we are to wait for a perfect system for autonomous driving, we might have to wait another few decades. Imperfect systems implemented sooner could save many thousands of lives.

@sk8board "just imagine how far away Tesla are from taking on the insurance liability for accidents, like Merc are doing in that small US trial"

Indeed. UNECE (which governs autonomous driving in the EU) has now approved level 3 autonomous driving on motorways with speeds of up to 130km/h and German regulators have ratified it, but afaik Mercedes hasn't implemented that yet. They have implemented the previous max of 60km/h. And yes, Mercedes is then liable for any accidents. Tesla hasn't shown this bravery yet 😂

BTW I had a quick browse of the full Regulation 157 and there is not a single mention in it of radar. Or lidar. I was kinda expecting that, but good to have that confirmed.

You only do either fully black or fully white, do you? 😂

There are 6 well defined levels of autonomous driving. From 0 to 5. Only level 5 no longer requires a driver. Currently all systems available to buy are level 2 at best, with only Mercedes-Benz at level 3, but in very narrowly defined circumstances only, on certain stretches of motorway only and only up to 60km/h. In a Stau!

Personally I think FSD was a poorly picked name for what Tesla has been selling for the last 7 years 😂

Dumb cruise control is level 0 BTW. It doesn't count at all. Level 1 is either active cruise control or lane assist, level 2 is both. The only thing different in level 3 is that the car is responsible in some very clearly defined circumstances. Level 4 the same but in almost all circumstances but driver has to be ready to take over at any time. Level 5 you no longer need a steering wheel or driver.

Tesla is clearly aiming to go from level 2 straight to level 4. Whenever the FSD beta is no longer a beta 😂

@kirving - "My biggest issue with Tesla really is the FSD name, and the fact that they're conning people who don't know any better into believing that they will ever actually be able to sit in the car and take a nap."

Call me an optimist, but I still hope to see that happen in the next few years 😁

Did you consider it might not be in the best interest for Tesla to sell it outright to end users? Unless they can get crazy money for it. It already is insane you now have to pay $15k in the USA for FSD - for beta software! It is more likely that in future you will be able to rent it per month or per trip. Not expecting that to be cheap either though.

Imagine the license revenue though if there is only one company that gets to fully autonomous driving first. How many taxi drivers are there even in the first world, ten million? Their jobs would all be gone within a decade.

It won't happen in our lifetimes that's for sure, just like we won't put a human on Mars, cure cancer, or cure anything.

When you run a car on input from cameras or sensors around, any splash of mud/dirt can be difference between life and death, poster above said chaos theory and he's spot on.

Think of possible malfunctions, bad lighting, heavy rainfall or just bad signage on roads for Teslas method

AI systems run on a hybrid of statistical models and machine learning which is informed by previous experiences, but with chaos theory and a billion different scenarios there is no way for manufacturers to guarantee a specific output for a given scenario.

In a closed system where every car is autonomous and communicating with each other and there's no pedestrians, cyclists or animals. Perfectly doable, I can see some city having autonomous cars in that scenario but in real life, it's going to be impossible to design a system robust enough that people are willing to actually remove the steering wheel and let others have one going up the Conor Pass