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NI Dec 22 Assembly Election

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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,548 ✭✭✭political analyst




  • Registered Users Posts: 3,496 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    How have we not digitalised this task yet?

    CountGPT.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,298 ✭✭✭✭retalivity


    Because youd get endless muppets screaming about elections being stolen just because they lost. I can hear the 'fenan coders rigged thon machines hai' already



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,701 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    The mistake made in Ireland was to try 'electronic* voting' with special (expensive) single purpose hardware and foreign owned software with unchecked algorithms. The machines were out of date and unsuitable before the first vote was cast on the dreadful machines.

    What is required is computer based counting where ballots are read by character recognition machines and converted to a useful format for data processing. In our case, it is essential for EU votes as the list of candidates is huge, and the complex system requires sophisticated algorithms. It would then be possible to transfer fractions of a vote, if that worked better.

    An Post use character recognition to sort mail, and any questionable ballot paper could be presented to a human to determine the actual vote as presented. The check would be done prior to any counting.

    Even Trump failed to get the voting machines to be found to fix the 2020 Presidential election - of course he had absolutely no evidence to support such a claim.


    *electronic should be 'computer based'.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,623 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    I have to hand it to sf. The pr is second to none. The best by some distance on the entire British isles. I have watched this element of what they do for a while now and am in awe.

    the best thing possible for unionism now is for them to sweep to power in roi.

    they have a perfect storm currently ie

    • endless money to spend on professional PR
    • in opposition in roi so no responsibility or hard decisions
    • no stormont so can blame the Brits for all the woes in the north (even with sitting stormont they still do this)
    • poster girls fronting the party, with men in back rooms telling them what to say, what to do, where to go, even what clothes to wear

    this is the American model on steroids

    the sooner they are in power and caught on the better

    unionism could learn a lot from them without getting quite so false and plastic



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  • Registered Users Posts: 68,842 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    A post that sums up why Unionism is in decline.

    Cannot come to terms with it's own faults and the predicament those faults have put them in.

    Cannot analyse themselves without reference to somebody else.

    Cannot blame the Brits, who have shafted them again and again as well as the rest of the people of NI.

    Cannot tolerate women in politics without demeaning them.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,496 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    Good points Downcow, but will SF get into power in Ireland?

    I am still not convinced personally.

    Will they be the largest party at the GE? Yes, almost certianly.

    But they wont have a majority and will need FF or FG as a Coalition partner.

    I think these 2 will again close ranks on SF, especially because SF have attacked both Leo and MM so much over housing, immigration etc and I think there is a genuine dislike of SF as a result amongst leadership.

    I predict more of the same for Irish government and same too for NI, as I still dont see Stormont sitting as the DUP will not get what they want from Rishi or the EU on the Windsor Framework.

    Same story, different day.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,842 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Thinking everything is going to stay the same might be a bit of a mistake. Might be part of the reason Unionism has been so inept at strategy. They thought partition ensured everything would go their way no matter what they did, that the British would shore them up indefinitely.

    Hoiw wrong were they?



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,623 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    I take your point but hope you are wrong. We desperately need sf in power in roi. I am sorry you need to suffer that for a term but that will blow away the pr and get down to reality



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,623 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    I am absolutely pointing out the deficiencies of unionism and my reference to sf is to how we can learn from them combined with a hope that people can cut through the Amanda Holden BGT image.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 68,842 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    No, it's very transparent what you are doing.

    You are refusing to accept your own part in your own downfall.

    It isn't because SF are better at PR. Your own electorate is telling you clearly what is wrong by heading for the middle ground.

    The UUP vote falls and the TUV vote falls and all the DUP can achieve out of that is to stay the same. That has nothing to do with SF and everything to do with what Unionism is offering.

    The laughable thing is you are now depending on SF to rescue you. Bizarre.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,623 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    Francie are you really suggesting these images at each count were not choreographed by others. I am not demeaning women as you suggest. If anyone is demeaning them it SFPR


    I guarantee you their pr team even decided that mary Lou and O’Neil would dress the same that day. No coincidences anymore with sf. Everything planned. Watch it closely - everyone knows their job. How long did it take to arrange everyone? Had to take several minutes. Note everyone in camera knows to clap as the poster girls and boy come up the stairs - the volume is created by those not in camera view. Why the stairs, the most difficult place to block - because that’s where their pr team wanted it.

    I could go on.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,623 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    It’s American politics on steroids. It will burst.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,842 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady




  • Registered Users Posts: 3,496 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    Thanks Downcow.

    We shall see. Personally, I wouldnt like to see SF in power in Ireland because I dont see how it will be a progressive step for the country.

    I dont think they will be able to build the houses we need because we dont have the labour force to do so and the planning regs will take a long time to overhaul.

    I do see them becoming more hostile to the golden goose of multinational business, that the currenr govt, for all their faults, have courted with adroitness.

    Ireland, as a nation, has benefitted from this tremendously.

    IDA and others do a steller job here also.

    Dont get me wrong, i am not saying all the heavy lifting is done by the govt.

    But the govt grease the wheels and enable the Multinationals and i love the diverse, highly renumerated society we have as a result in Ireland today. (and lets not forget the Corporate Tax receipts!)

    I dont see what SF bring to the party.

    The youth of ireland, that are rightly upset sbout the cost of living and scarcity of housing, will find no answers in the hands of SF.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,842 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Look at this downcow...another SF PR manufactured event....oh wait!

    Nah, it's just a normal party celebration of electoral success.




  • Registered Users Posts: 1,954 ✭✭✭.Donegal.


    Demographics are against unionists. The voting pool shrinks every election. If you were a unionist the age demographics wouldn’t fill you with hope. From the last census.

    The highest % of protestant (64%) by age group is the over 90s. The lowest % of catholics (25.8%) is in the 90+ category as well. The % of Protestants decreases with age and 60-64 is the last time it’s at 50% or above. 

    By 45-49 there’s less than 3% points in it. 40-44 it’s 1%. The 35-39 age group is the first time age group that catholics out number Protestants(41.5% vs 37.8%) . 30-34 age group it’s widens massively(44% vs 34.3%) The youngest category 0-4 has the smallest % of Protestants with 31.7%. 

    DUP is too inward looking, if their traditional voting pool keeps shrinking then they’re going to have branch out to attract voters outside their traditional base but they seem incapable of that thus far. Dinosaur denying creationists at the helm will only take you so far.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,623 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    I agree with all you say apart from an implication that Catholics are not unionists. Stats show the opposite ie and increasing number of Catholics are unionist when it comes to the UI question.

    unionist parties need to change drastically. The very fact that unionism is holding its ground with such self inflicted challenges should be a positive.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,623 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    No comparison francie. Tel me honestly francie, let’s just take the clothing for now - do you think the dress code was not arranged by their pr?

    fyi I put the scenario to ChatGPT and it came back with odds of nearly 2,000,000 to one that Marley Lou and O’Neil would both wear same colour tops and bottoms and none of the greeting crowd would have either red or black on them. But sure it was all just coincidence. No way would sf tell their poster girls what to were.

    I guess it was also coincidence that the greeting crowd on camera all clapped, and only clapped, while a crowd off camera cheered loudly. Coincidence my bum

    …an of course they all happened to be standing in a nice semi circle at the top of the stairs and no one went down to meet them. What planet are you on



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,842 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    The red and the pink jackets?

    Why would a PR team decide to put them in red and pink jackets that are differently styled? Why would one wear black tights and the other not?

    Is there some sort of subliminal messaging going on here?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,954 ✭✭✭.Donegal.


    What ever % of catholics are pro union won’t come close to replenishing the unionists who are dying out, almost 2/3s of over 90s are from a Protestant background, it’s less than 1 in 3 in under 4s. There’s also some Protestants who are for a UI albeit small.

    Regardless those from a Nationalist or Unionist background are more likely to vote that way than to vote for a party on the opposite side.

    Do you think the DUP should go back to stormont?



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,623 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    Oh I agree party voting runs much closer to sectarian background. A border poll though would be different according to polls.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,842 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    This election and previous had Unionists offerings make no ground and Unionist vote share is falling.

    All Unionists would be offering is more of the same in a border poll while others would be offering the UI plan/White Paper.

    When that happens then opinion polls will be relevant because now you are asking people to decide on guesswork about what a UI will offer.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,842 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    ‘Do you think the DUP should go back to stormont?’


    A lot of the respected pundits Alex Kane, Alison Morris etc seem to reckon they’ll fashion a win and go back in Autumn



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,213 ✭✭✭✭Furze99


    So is this THE strategy now for nationalism up north? Tell the women to lie back and think of Stormont and let's outbreed them! I suppose it might work over a few decades.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,213 ✭✭✭✭Furze99


    Nor I, God knows what damage they could do down here if they get their knees under the table. Notice Michelle keep going on about 'Tory Austerity', Jaysus they'd bleed us dry if they got a chance.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,497 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    Some degree of denial going on that it would attempt to frame generic "politicians celebrating election" as something subversive. Mind you, the degree to which the DUP present as archaic I'm not surprised something modern like political PR showboating looks alien.

    Unionism is at a crossroads of relevancy. It's transparent and plain that what the TUV and UUP lost was not to the gain of the DUP. Belligerent unionism is increasingly shouting from a slowly disintegrating base - one that's literally dying off.

    But let's cry and wail about fashion choices. You'd have to drug me to vote Sinn Fein but watching unionism respond about 20 years behind the social and political curve would be funny if they still didn't possess the ability to self-sabotage their own economy and society.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 91,636 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    In the Seanad they do fractions of a vote to handle surplus and transfers. You could do that with a computer or you could run the program N times with different bundles of votes being transferred to get an average. Either way is messy.

    Paper votes mean that observers like tallymen (and women) get to observe the whole process.

    There is no need for a quick result. So speed is not an issue.

    OCR is not perfect. An Post have a dead letter office to compare with previous history, not something you can do with votes.


    Newry, Mourne and Down council was decided by one single vote. And a border poll would be close and the result would be at least £10Bn a year to HMG.



  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 10,286 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    Yes you could ramble on that is at least true. However you don't actually know the people involved and you were not there, so what every stories you decide to make up have no credibility apart from reflecting on you.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,355 ✭✭✭AyeGer


    The difference being catholic support for staying in the union is primarily economics based, Protestants are more likely to want to remain due to identity, ideology and of course economics. Virtually nobody from a catholic background will be contemplating taking up arms if faced with the prospect of Irish unity.

    The elephant in the room for Ulster unionism is the prospect of Scotland leaving the union, which is a very real possibility in the coming years. England and Wales might settle into a cosy relationship but it’s not hard to imagine the North being edged out of the rump union once Scotland have flown the nest.



This discussion has been closed.
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