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Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,304 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    I doubt they can get rid of him after the war though; he'll be elected to 2029 as it's 5 year terms based on next year election (2024). Even if the war somehow stopped this year (and I have my doubts but if it happens it will be in October or later after the offensives are over) I still think he'd win another 5 years as president simply based on his record during and after the war. The only way I can see him lose would be a really bad peace deal but I simply don't see him accepting a bad peace deal in the first place (defining bad would be anything short of pre war borders at the least). If he was the PM I'd agree chances are he'd be voted out a few years later but he has to stand down 2029 anyway because of two term limits.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,578 ✭✭✭Field east


    And then about the answer to the question re Putin.



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Totally agree .

    For me the hardest Job will come when the guns fall silent



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    We all know who and what putin is we all know how corrupt he is and his leadership nobody is denying it certainly not me ,



  • Registered Users Posts: 507 ✭✭✭Antipathetic


    There seem to be rumours flying around Twitter that Zaluzhny is either dead or in a critical condition in a clinic. He hasn't been seen for weeks and even failed to show up on a video call with members of NATO. The Ukrainians are giving out very little information about his current status. Personally, I think unfortunately he is dead, having been killed by a Russian missile strike as he was visiting one of the frontline positions or he was in a bunker that was hit.

    Meanwhile, the president seems to be doing a world tour and not in any hurry to go home to the country is in charge of.

    Don't let the terrorists in Israel win. Please donate to UNRWA now!

    https://donate.unrwa.org/-landing-page/en_EN



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  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Rumors from pro russian accounts.

    The same ones that say they have blown up all of Ukraines HiMars systems, leopard 2 tanks and F16s that they don't have yet

    Meanwhile Zelensky is attending the G7 conference like a a lot of world leaders why would he be in a rush to get home.?

    Got to do a little better than that.



  • Registered Users Posts: 507 ✭✭✭Antipathetic


    Okay then explain why he didn't show up for the recent NATO video call? You can look up yourself.

    Don't let the terrorists in Israel win. Please donate to UNRWA now!

    https://donate.unrwa.org/-landing-page/en_EN



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    What Nato video call,

    Have you anything substantive other than I heard a rumour on pro russian social medias , conspiracy theories



  • Registered Users Posts: 507 ✭✭✭Antipathetic


    The proof is in the two images to the right. There is no mention of any recent calls between him and the US Department of defence as per the image the last time they were in contact was on April 4.

    And straight from the horse's mouth.


    Post edited by Antipathetic on

    Don't let the terrorists in Israel win. Please donate to UNRWA now!

    https://donate.unrwa.org/-landing-page/en_EN



  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    So two pro Russian social media accounts

    So it's a conspiracy theory?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 507 ✭✭✭Antipathetic


    I see you can't refute anything. So instead, you are, as usual attacking the sources. If you believe what I have posted is untrue then go ahead and disprove me rather than your usual tactic of throwing insults.

    Don't let the terrorists in Israel win. Please donate to UNRWA now!

    https://donate.unrwa.org/-landing-page/en_EN



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,418 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Refute what exactly? Rumours and suspicions emanating from dubious sources?

    There is nothing substantive to disprove so far.

    Given how many similar clains from such sources have shown to be blatant lies. And how many dubious claims you have posted to this thread there is no benefit of the doubt here.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,324 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    When some try to discredit or decry Ukraine, this is what the distraction is about: a timely reminder that the country is resisting advances from a privatised army committing war crimes - in this case, abhorrent behaviour in Mali.

    Oh no Zelensky mightn't be perfect! Something something corruption. Sure, doubt anyone is perfect, even feted politicians. I know who definitely aren't perfect: the Wagner criminals currently bogged down in Bakhmut. Headlines like this show perhaps the value of trapping Wagner in one, blasted place, rather than raping their way through Ukraine.




  • Registered Users Posts: 17,923 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Zelensky's "world tour" to secure support for Ukraine, including potential F-16s, and dominating the G7 talks seems to have yet another positive effect - triggering the Putin apologists and campists no end.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,923 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe



    Unfortunately there are so many of these, every time the cars stop and people get out, incredible.




  • Registered Users Posts: 40,291 ✭✭✭✭Gatling


    Were seeing various claims that F16s will be arriving and flying in Ukraine sometime in the next 4 months depending on who's claim you believe,

    While the announcement has come about a coalition to train pilots on western aircraft , several UK vice Air Marshall saying It's likely going to take 2 years for the Ukrainans to be trained to fly F16s and prepare the logistics including training maintenance crews on brand new systems and ways of Nato operational requirements



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,304 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody



    That rings with the numbers I've seen of 18 months of training for existing pilots; I don't really see it having a direct effect on the war effort (i.e. pilots ready by end of 2024; planes operational spring 2025) beyond putting more preassure on the Russians to end the fiasco in Ukraine asap. Their push failed; Ukraine's counter punch is now coming (and can already see what 1 batalion is doing in doing a big encircling of Bakhmut which will force them to pull back) which I'd guess will last to Octoberish (depending on weather).

    That's the earliest point I can see any form of peace deal to be reached (because both sides then know how much more ground the Russian lost) and the information that F16s are coming will obviously weight in Ukraine's favor. As it stands I can't see Russia today accept going back to the 2014 borders; nor Ukraine accepting anything short of a full retake. The counteroffensive and West's ability to keep providing hardware and ammo will have to be taken into account as well (remember a lot of the ammo used now are on 2+ years backlog in the West which means the availability to send more will be constrained). The problem Russia has is in itself very simple; Putin has zero incentive to ever stop the war (because that means having to explain why they failed taking over Ukraine) and that's before looking at what ever information he actually gets. That means the war is likely to only end when Putin is gone (the cancer he's rumoured to have, killed off by competing faction, fleeing to South America etc.) and a new faction willing to blame it all on the previous regime comes into power. Either way I'd expect Russia to loot all possible, blow up the rest and force relocate people into Russia before the deal is signed.

    Post edited by Nody on


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,328 ✭✭✭✭AbusesToilets


    I'm surprised there hasn't been an effort to set up a Flying Tigers type of outfit for Ukraine. There's no shortage of experienced fighter pilots, driving airliners or the like. Give Ukraine the fighters, let former Western pilots fly them while Ukrainian ones train up on the systems.

    Rogoway from the Warzone has been banging the drum about Australias mothballed F-18s since the start of the conflict. A better option than the F-16s, due to a more rugged airframe and endurance.



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,418 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Too much of an echo of Putins little green men possibly... Russia would claim they are really still NATO military.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users Posts: 10,328 ✭✭✭✭AbusesToilets


    I mean, who **** cares what Russia claims. They're not going to do anything against NATO



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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,812 ✭✭✭✭bear1


    It does make me wonder why a year ago Biden announced that such a move was in effect world war 3 and now it’s fine.

    With so many countries calling for peace, shouldn’t the west also start collectively thinking how to stop this going further and further? What’s next? ICBMs? That’s not to say Russia doesn’t deserve any of this but this constant funding and providing military hardware surely can’t be sustainable? Especially with the US only days away from their debt ceiling.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,484 ✭✭✭Fighting Tao


    It could be down to the assessment of Russias military capabilities. The more they fought, the more they exposed the low quality of equipment and personnel. Even a year ago they looked a lot more capable than they do now.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 36,324 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    It's noteworthy that those calling for peace are those most removed from the conflict. Easy for Lula, an old-school Leftist, to chatter about peace with his bias towards anti-American imperialism colouring his PoV; you see less enthusiasm for "peace" as you get closer to the front-lines. Blaming the US for everything is easy and glib for those affecting geopolitical Hot Takes. Brazil has little on the line here.

    This is a war of naked aggression and it's hard to see what possible terms would satisfy everyone; especially when the aggressor only remains out of Sunk Cost & the presumed end-result for Putin if he ordered a retreat. The 2014 borders seem about as good a deal as could possibly be established at this stage ... despite Zelensky's bullish talk about restoring Crimea to Ukraine. I doubt Western support would extend into a further protracted campaign into Crimea. But at a bare minimum, Russia walking away with its second attempt at purloining land couldn't be part of the agreement - otherwise it's just appeasement after the fact, effectively rubber-stamping their invasion as "worth it" given they'll keep what they stole. Hardly a compromise.

    If Crimea were to stay with Russia any treaty would have to come with severe caveats; and good luck speculating what those might be. Perhaps at a minimum, Russia would have to agree to a severely reduced naval presence in the Black Sea - 'cos I doubt they'd agree to the reverse, and Ukraine allowed to build up a navy. Whatever it amounted to, it'd also have to have some legal binding with 3rd parties to ensure compliance - otherwise we'll see another attempt by Putin (or whatever ultra-nationalist replaces him) in ~10 years time. We still might - it's patently obvious Putin's Russia doesn't care.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,578 ✭✭✭Field east


    Well tell Putin to take his soldiers out and go home . He and he alone is the aggressor - 100%. He is the one who started it.

    and he started it on somebody else’s land that has nothing got to do with him . He invaded another soverign country , has ruined the lives of millions , killed thousands, scorched villages , towns and cities and will only GO HOME if he is allowed to take home ‘ UNDER HIS ARM’ a large slice of another country and rule over it. So how do you even start dealing/ reaching agreement with guy after he having done all of this apart from he being a compulsive liar?. The current strategy is the only one until the situation in Russia changes that allows an alternative strategy - which hopefully does not include the use of arms FOREVER



  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 14,502 Mod ✭✭✭✭johnnyskeleton


    In 1940 there was a debate as to whether to continue the war after the Battle of France or sue for peace and continue the war (Churchill) won out. The British working class stoically set to work winning the war while the middle classes gave up their savings and luxuries. Rather than saying Churchill lost the 1945 election, it is more apt to say that Attlee won. The British working class who had suffered greatly during the war wanted a better life and the middle class wanted peace and stability and Attlee was offering that to them while Churchill sat on his laurels and appealled to a nationalism that had worn thin.

    Comparing this to Ukraine is hard. Zelensky won the election on a platform of compromise, especially compromise with Russia. He was also advocating modernisation and links with the EU, but in a moderate way as opposed tot he more bullish Poroshenko. But events overtook him and he has become a symbol of resistance. He is now firmly in the pro Western camp and there is no real debate amongst Ukrainians as to whether the war should continue or not.

    I would be amazed if he didnt win a post war election. Im not even sure if many will oppose him, other than Russian separatist types.



  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 14,502 Mod ✭✭✭✭johnnyskeleton


    The West is calling for peace. They have been consistently calling on Russia to withdraw its invasion of troops. I dont know how much more can be done



  • Registered Users Posts: 10,328 ✭✭✭✭AbusesToilets


    The cost to the US is negligible, certainly compared to the Forever Wars. Most of the stuff they've sent has already been paid for, anything new that's produced in effect stimulates the economy. You can be sure that any agreements for the now have specified or implied conditions for the future. Favorable consideration for contracts etc. This conflict is an absolute win for the US, and it's only the empty politicking from Republicans that paints it as anything else. Cold War era politicians would bite your arm off if you offered them this situation.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,304 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    I can only agree on this; no American soldiers of note at risk of dying (I'm sure there's a very limited amount of soldiers on the ground in Ukraine that could die from a missile getting through) and they get to not only field test their weapons but on top of that against an army using the weapons they are built to destroy (and save the money of having to deploy their own army in doing so). Add in the American military complex gets to produce more to refill stocks (and the Western aligned countries increasing their armies as well driving further sales) ensuring plenty of high paid work at home. However the Republicans have to be contrarians in everything and complain that's it wrong and the money should be spent on Americans (like tax cuts for billionaires I guess). If anything the Republicans (in the relevant states at least) should push for more aid to Ukraine to drive higher employement in their factories etc. if they where smart but it's the Trump style Republicans these days sadly who has to disagree with everything the other side does on principle rather than being a tad more pragmatic on the topic (the total aid for Ukraine to date has been $75 billion compared to the $2.313 trillion cost for Afghanistan 2001 - 2022)...



  • Registered Users Posts: 426 ✭✭grumpyperson


    The donbass cowboy is interviewed here by a nefarious interviewer. Their views on the war are interesting although the interviewers politics are definitely not to my liking.

    https://roloslavskiy.substack.com/p/red-list-23-facing-down-disaster#details

    If Russell is indicative of the general mood in Donbass, I don't see an easy end to the war that put LHR and donbass back in Ukraine.



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  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 26,665 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    The US military hardware is entirely material they have in stock and on many occasions material that would have been mothballed anyway. Nor will the debt ceiling discussions ever be allowed impact the defence budget in the US.



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