Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Have a friend in Cherrywood. One of the charities bought about 30% of the houses around him. There are a few scum families in there the last couple of years. Breaking into other houses and so on. Even caught red handed and let go by the gardai. Charities when asked to do something about it just say, "GDPR - We have spoken to the tenants". So nothing then. Once a bad element gets embedded ioto an area they are there forever, especially if the house is free.

Hey guys, first time posting.

Is it better waiting in buying a house for now? Seeing all prices statistically going down for the last months.

We were close in buying a new property but both locations had a big number of social tenancies which made us not going forward..

I would be holding off if I were you we are near the top end for interest rates and at some point in the future they will have to come down and prices are and will continue to come down for the rest of the year at least. having said that you I would take heed of what the previous poster said its more a personal decision no one on here knows your personal circumstances as in are you renting, how much are you paying in rent, where are you buying how much your going to spend and a myriad of other factors that are uniquely about your situation. Be careful asking this kind of question as there will be some with an agenda telling you what to do. Good luck what ever you do and come back on and let us know how you got on.

Well anyone clever enough to be able to predict if house prices are going crash or take off etc should be making enough money to have a jet of their own :)

What makes you think interest rates will come down? For the past decade they've been printing more and giving it away for free (near zero interest rates). Couple that with the free cash pumped into the system during COVID in the EU and US. The number of dollars in circulation increased by 50% during COVID. They need to increase interest rates to reduce the velocity of money and take as much money out of the economy. However going back to low interest rate environment will just see this money flood back into circulation and hello inflation once again. We are looking at interest rates being higher than rate of inflation for long time to come. Philip Lane has said as much numerous times.

Just buy when you find something you like and can afford.

Well if we follow the trajectory of what is happening we will be seeing a global recession within the next 12/18 months this is what the interest rate hikes are going to cause as at no time in history has private and public debt globally been this huge and there will be a lot of fire sales and defaults on debt once the new reality of what people owe kick in and when that happens we will see a pivot from the likes of the ECB and the FED, it could be a 2/3 years before we see rate drops but they will happen but it wont come down to zero like before I think the penny has dropped that having such a low rate for such a long time was probably more damaging to the global economy than any rate hike. The idea that they can use interest rates to fix inflation with out damaging the global economy is baffling its like trying to open a peanut on a sheet of glass with a smack from a sledge hammer and expecting the glass to be fine after the smack, yet the thing about the current bout of inflation is wages have not and will not reach up to the new price points most companies are feeling the cost of living pressures and cant afford pay rises in a lot of cases and IMO it will take another decade or so to get wages up to meet the new price point. So IMO prices in the short/medium term will have to come down as businesses will also feel the effect on their cash flow with the new rates. So we are going to see a lot more companies shedding jobs and a further ramping up of companies hitting the wall.

If ever a market can show the effect of what I am talking about its our property market. When you think we have had ravenous demand for 6/7 years, we have had very little supply which has pushed prices up and up, we have also had a lot of interference and manipulation from government within the market and from external players like REITS with both sections hoovering up a very high % of properties that are available on the market and yet with all of this the factor that has trumped them all is access to cheap credit via loans and due to interest rates going up property prices are dropping, Dublin has seen 6 months of price drops. There are a lot of people struggling out there.

Exactly nobody knows what will happen. I person believe we may never see 0% or negative interest rates ever again.

Sure eventually Interest rates will have to fall, but unlike the other poster I don't see we are at the peak yet and I believe they aren't just going to increase rates and then start decreasing it as soon as they stop increasing it.. There will be a period of them leaving it unchanged for a while before they start to lower it - unless there is something drastic in the economy. My guess is also that ECB rates will be at least 1% ~ 1.5% once everything has calmed down and back to normal.

From an Irish context, we lost two major banks. Existing banks were competing for new customers at the start of the year.. But that is slowly changing, and I am worried about the lack of competition long term for lending products.

Wait if u can…if rent is below market, and there is no urgency to buy…dont make an emotional decision ! High interest rates, peak property prices impose lot of risk..but if u are in urgent need go for it

Wrong thread.

And imagine if you were 40 years old and just getting older and watching the property prices the last few years hoping they would go down so you could buy. You would be in a right crap situation then. Instead you would have been watching your allowed mortgage term getting less, interest rates getting higher and prices running away from you and your rent was going up. Instead you are in your own house that may go down in value but you are stable. No rent or possibility of being told the landlord is selling, probably fixed mortgage rate, term of your mortgage reducing while being paid off, and so much space.

My Dad used to say the minute you can afford it buy somewhere for yourself to live even if its a one bed apartment or a shed. Get out of the rat race and then you can trade up or build up at your leisure without being stuck at the whims of the rental market.

I took this advice and started with a 1 bed apartment. Now in a house with no mortgage left.

My brother did the opposite. He is 45 now and himself and his wife and child are living in a 2 bed house for over €2000 per month. They have no savings and could not afford to buy at todays prices. He still thinks there will be a crash, so wouldnt buy anyway. They spent the last 10 years waiting for their predicted crash. He wanted to move into my apartment before I sold it and I told him no, that I needed to sell it to pay off the mortgage on our house. HE was disgusted and tried to make me feel guilty that he didnt benefit from my good decisions. tbh if i let him move in he would have expected cheap rent which i would have had to pay tax on and then it would also have effected the value of the place to sell. But he would have never moved out then, so i did the right thing for myself even if he is pissed off at it.

If you say so. But I think I know how long my brother was expecting a crash for.

Ten years ago prices had just started to rise. Anyone expecting a further crash from the effective bottom was insane.

There were still plenty on here, or course.

I think I know what conversations I was having with my brother at the time. Or at least I remember them better that people who werent there with us.

I was telling him to buy as we had been at the bottom already. He was saying it was a dead cat bounce and all that sh!te. He couldnt handle the fact that he had mistimed the bottom and so continued, right on until today to say the crash is coming. Its too late for him now though. He has hit and passed the age where things only get harder when buying a place to live.

His rent was much cheaper then too, so it was even easier for him to wait for his expected "crash" even if it didnt come. Nowadays though he has a big problem waiting.

As you say, Boards is full of the same thought process.

For the majority of young buyers who had become accustomed to 5 yrs of doom and gloom, the certainty you speak of may have been as obvious as the certainty you have today.

Can you be certain about the property sector?