Russia - threadbanned users in OP

I'd love to see all of that happen but that's the kind of diplomatic capitulation that only happens when a country is completely and utterly defeated in a war (think Germany or Japan after WWII where the country has either been successfully invaded or all of its major cities have been bombed into oblivion and armed forces defeated). The scenario where a country has literally no other options.

That's not going to happen to Russia for the simple reason that they have nuclear arms. We all enjoyed the recent border incursions but nobody is going invading Moscow any time soon or firing nuclear missiles at them.

Unfortunately "fairness" often doesn't come into it when it comes to negotiations. Was it fair that killers were released after serving short sentences as part of the Good Friday Agreement? I don't think it was, certainly not to the families of their victims, but that's what was agreed by both sides and it resulted in a peace that has lasted to this day.

It is very likely that the Ukrainians are going to have to swallow some bitter pills when this, eventually, gets to the negotiations table. If point #9 comes to pass then the Ukrainians will have done extremely well and I think they'd bite your hand off for that right now. The rest is just fantasy, unfortunately.

I cannot remember who said it a few posts back, but someone said the end of this war will not be peace but it will go from hot to cold and continue that way. Honestly I think that poster is correct, but the country that will suffer the most from that will be Russia and not Ukraine.

I can see Ukraine retaking a lot of the lost territory, but perhaps not all. I am not soothsayer so I do not know how much. There will not be a peace because the the Russian government have no interest in it nor is it in the interest of the Russian government (as distinct from the Russian people). The result will be Russia in a 20 or 30 year permanent sever sanction crisis and the Chinese wolf growing on the doorstep.

A succinct summery.

I have no interest in discussing Isreal in this thread, it is not about Isreal. You are engaging in whataboutism.

So, debate or get off the soapbox. Goodbye.

For the record can you point to any posters who "condemn Russia but will laugh off Israeli aggression"? This isn't the first time I have seen this accusation but I haven't actually seen anyone do it. I'd imagine most posters who are sympathetic to the plight of Ukraine do so because they are disgusted by aggressive bullies and as such are likely also sympathetic toward the plight of Palestinians.

If such a fate were to befall Putin it probably wouldn't be a starting point for negotiations - it could end up being the opposite. How this war will evolve will depend at least as much on what happens in Moscow as it does on the battlefields in Ukraine. Putin is likely to be challenged, particularly if the war continues to proceed unfavourably for Russia. However, what hope is there for negotiations the when all of his would-be challengers are extremists who want victory, not peace?

Yes, you are right. The bombings took place in Buynaksk, Moscow and Volgodonsk. The one in Ryazan was the bomb the FSB were caught red handed planting.

Unfortunately you cannot isolate this event without looking at geopolitics and all the death and suffering that comes with it imo ...

350 billion has been seized from the Russians. They are trying to release that money to help Ukraine.

Perhaps, but it would be the removal of a red-line issue that currently prohibits negotiations. I did also mention "regime change" rather than simply removing Putin in a previous post. True, most of his potential successors are currently supportive of the special military operation, however, that could change quickly after Putin's removal since, at present, having any other point of view is currently a criminal offence in Russia.

Ultimately no one knows exactly how the war will end , or what it'll take to end it ..

My plan or Pauls plan , or your plan are pie in the sky , and are as worthy of debate as any other .. and individual parts sound grand but getting agreement on them or enforcing them is another matter ..

On the face of it , Russia is an unenviable position, short on troops,no reserves , supply line issues , morale issues , starting to get through their modern equipment..

The ukrainians seem to have the upper hand , modern equiped brigades in reserve , and a major offensive in the planning . Maybe .

But that may not be how it pans out , and each side probably would accept something to spin as a win to end things ,

Autumn will tell a lot .

Ukraine getting a great ROI on those drone boats.

I just don't understand russian (sorry, I can't even give the pronoun a capital 'R') geo-political strategy . If you speak to any Central European, from the Baltics to Poland to the Czech Repubilc and now Ukraine their hate for the Russians is absolutely vitriolic. Their hate is passed down through the generations. My brother-in-law is married to a Latvian girl and I've worked with Slovaks and Poles who weren't even born when the Iron Curtain came down and their hate for russians is absolute. In invading the Ukraine they have created another 35 million + russophobes and in essence created a natural border of hate from the Arctic circle to the Mediterranean.

I'm probably going to catch some flak for this, but to me, it seems more and more like a cult, rather than a nation state. The absolute obedience to their leader, the shunning and othering of "outsiders", and the belief that they alone are "the chosen people", all these are staples of every major cult. This cult-like indoctrination would also explain the extreme levels of loyalty amongst Russians abroad. They may live among the "heathens" in the west, and even take their money, but they know that they are "the chosen ones". As such, there's no real endgame in sight, as the Russian government, and significant chunks of the Russian population, they simply don't see anyone outside of Russia as equals, or even worth considering.

In many ways, this is similar to the indoctrination during the 3rd Reich, although I don't recall it ever getting to this extreme degree, though not for lack of trying.

China envoy on their idea of a peace deal, ceasefire and Russia retains it's new territories