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Cost of a United Ireland and the GFA

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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,330 ✭✭✭Francis McM


    Would generally have been counter productive; it was in the interests of the British people NOT to have their citizens murdered and their economy destroyed in the economic war the IRA fought ( thousands of explosions, destroying the tourism industry, murdering businessmen from overseas who came to invest for the good of all the community etc ).



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,848 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    So can we take it you have no link to the Fermanagh data @Francis McM



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,330 ✭✭✭Francis McM


    Of course there are statistics to back that up. I thought basic information like that would be known to someone like yourself though, who has posted tens of thousands of times about N.I.

    Quote "Of the 116 deaths in Co Fermanagh related to the Troubles, over 100 were perpetrated by the IRA, and more than 90% of them remain unsolved to..."

    If you google "number of people killed in fermanagh during troubles" it is in the 2nd and 3rd link down. I am just on my phone now and even I can do that. It is in the Newsletter, 24 Jun 2017



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,848 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    You are supposed to supply links to back up claims when asked.

    How does it compare to other counties in terms of unsolved killings? How many killings of Catholic/Nationalists are unsolved?

    That is the kind of data you need instead of cherrypicking one county that suits your narrative.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,699 ✭✭✭standardg60


    I've no issue with the judgement but the assertion that it was directed at Drew Harris is false, he communicated the decision of the CC as he was probably tasked to do..

    “The unfairness here is extreme – where the applicant had believed that the murder of his brother would finally be considered in context for the purposes of discovering if there was any evidence of collusion in the murder, that process is now completed and will not be taken up by any other body. The frustration of the HET commitment communicated by the ACC completely undermined the “…primary aim [of the HET] to address as far as possible, all the unresolved concerns that families have”. It has completely undermined the confidence of the families whose concerns are not only still unresolved but compounded by the effects of the decisions taken by the then Chief Constable. It is a matter of very grave concern that almost two decades after the McKerr series of judgments decisions were taken apparently by the Chief Constable to dismantle and abandon the principles adopted and put forward to the CM to achieve art 2 compliance. There is a real risk that this will fuel in the minds of the families the fear that the state has resiled from its public commitments because it is not genuinely committed to addressing the unresolved concerns that the families have of state involvement. In the context of the Glennane series, as I said earlier, the principal unresolved concern of the families is to have identified and addressed the issues and questions regarding the nature, scope and extent of any collusion on the part of state actors in this series of atrocities including whether they could be regarded, as the applicant argued, as part of a ‘state practice’. I consider that whether the legitimate expectation is now enforceable or not its frustration is inconsistent with Article 2, the principles underpinning the ECtHR judgments in the McKerr series and with the Package of Measure.

    If a 'Loyalist' can manage to come here and dismantle the vile hierarchical 'frankly disgusting' attitude that prevailed in our Gardai that's fine with me.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,330 ✭✭✭Francis McM


    It was not a claim, it was a fact that "Of the 116 deaths in Co Fermanagh related to the Troubles, over 100 were perpetrated by the IRA, and more than 90% of them remain unsolved". I am glad you have seen the links to back it up, easily googleable. I am still astounded that basic facts like that would come as a surprise to you, someone who has posted tens of thousands of times about N.I. Surely, deep down and away from your job posting online, you must have been aware of who was the driving force behind the troubles, / who carried out most of the murders and nearly all of the explosions (economic war)?



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,848 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    I am not in the least surprised. I have known the figures for a long time.

    What I don't know is the data you have failed to supply when asked, relating to how Fermanagh compares to the rest of NI in terms of unsolved killings.

    I.E. As the article I posted earlier with more extensive data shows, there are ten times the amount of unsolved killings in Fermanagh being investigated by the legacy teams and as you said that doesn't represent the totality.

    So is Fermanagh an outlier or not?

    Statistics are dangerous things in the wrong hands.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,330 ✭✭✭Francis McM


    You asked twice for the link to the statistic "Of the 116 deaths in Co Fermanagh related to the Troubles, over 100 were perpetrated by the IRA, and more than 90% of them remain unsolved". You got it and now have moved the goalposts / ask a different question "how Fermanagh compares to the rest of NI in terms of unsolved killings." Find out the answer to your own question and come back to us. The point was 92 to 93% of troubles related murders in Co. Fermanagh were carried out by republicans. Of the remaining 7 to 8%, I can think of one for example where a lone ambushed UDR part time soldier who was ambushed when off duty by armed PIRA men, shot back and killed one of his attackers, so it was self defence. I love statistics, from both sides, as it helps paint a more accurate picture than relying on things other than statistics.

    Statistics can be wrong: for example back in the eighties I remember seeing a video of a riot on TV where a rioter came up behind a security force person, who did not hear him coming because of the noise of the riot and his helmet etc, but he turned around at the last second as the rioter was about to hit him with a large stick (or similar weapon) raised in his hands over his head. Caught by surprise at extremely close range (less than a meter), in a split second decision he shot a rubber bullet which unfortunately killed the attacker. No doubt extremist Republicans would have that down as innocent catholic civilian killed by security forces: I would be surprised otherwise.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,848 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    You claimed this about the Legacy team to infer they were being selective in favour of republicans and ignoring republican killings in Fermanagh:

    they obviously are cherrypicking and the cases they have cherrypicked are quite obvious.


    I got no data so I can assume this was another bogus claim.

    Shortly after that you were asked for data on the Fermanagh killings, you presented a newspaper article, which while many things, is not data.

    I outlined exactly what you needed to provide:

    How does it compare to other counties in terms of unsolved killings? How many killings of Catholic/Nationalists are unsolved?

    Nobody is shifting goalposts.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,330 ✭✭✭Francis McM


    It was you who claimed ( your post, no. 1104)  "if you look at the total data on legacy it's clear which community has gotten least from investigative work".

    Can you back that up? Bear in mind, as widely known and reported, Of the 116 deaths in Co Fermanagh related to the Troubles, over 100 were perpetrated by the IRA, and more than 90% of them remain unsolved.  If you contact any of the families of the victims of 90 plus unsolved murders in Co. Fermanagh by the IRA, and ask them is anyone investigating the unsolved murder of their loved ones by the PIRA, you will get your answer / get a clearer picture. On second thoughts,it is probably best you do not contact them: they would not want to hear from you as they have suffered enough already from extremist Republicans.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 68,848 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    If you look at the 'legacy' cases it is most definitely clear. What else could you observe?

    I didn't make any claims about the unsolved cases in Fermanagh.

    Now, I am not getting into a back and forth on this.

    Either you can present comparative data or you can't, which renders your point meaningless in the whole context of the conflict/war.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,330 ✭✭✭Francis McM


    The "legacy" cases you reference are not the total number of unsolved murders though are they, not by a long shot? You didn't seem to know about the ethnic cleansing in Fermanagh (as many there saw it) during the troubles, I had to give you a pointer to where you would find links.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,848 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    I knew all about them and the false narrative that it was ethnic cleansing, most of them had connections to the UDR or security forces.

    Including the one about a man who lived in a village a few miles away from here. The narrative is he was killed because he was s protestant while the reality was he was warned to stop supplying the military.

    Before you infer anything from that, it was still wrong but it wasn’t ethnic cleansing.

    As regards legacy investigations, I made NO claims about that bar the observation that one side had gotten more closure than the other.

    You made claims there is something unique about Fermanagh without presenting comparative data.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,330 ✭✭✭Francis McM


    Well, you did not know about Co. Fermanagh, where there were a total of 116 deaths related to the Troubles, over 100 of which were perpetrated by the IRA, and more than 90% of them remain unsolved. You had to ask for the link to it 2 or 3 times.

    You then had the audacity to claim you "knew all about them and the false narrative that it was ethnic cleansing, most of them had connections to the UDR or security forces." The UDR itself only killed 6 people ( a number in self defence). There were actually twice as many Catholics in the UDR murdered by Republicans ( a total of 12 ) as the total number of people (of all faiths and none) killed by the UDR. If you want something to compare Fermanagh to as you were looking to, compare that to "the total of 116 deaths related to the Troubles in Co. Fermanagh, over 100 of which were perpetrated by the IRA, and more than 90% of them remain unsolved.

    I know you are going to go on now about off duty UDR murdering etc etc, none of which I condone either.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,848 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Last time.

    I asked first for a link/source to your probably bogus claim that legacy cases were only being conducted on behalf of nationalists.

    And I asked for ‘data’ on the Fermanagh deaths that showed it was different to other areas in the context of unsolved cases given that the legacy team was working on 10 times the amount in Fermanagh and even YOU said that was not all the unsolved cases.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,330 ✭✭✭Francis McM


    tut tut Francie, you are making up lies again. You must be upset that i was able to show to you the extent of Republican ethnic cleansing in Co. Fermanagh, and that 92 to 93% of troubles related murders there were carried out by Republicans.

     I NEVER made a clain that legacy cases were only being conducted on behalf of nationalists. So why ask for link / source on something I did not claim?

    I NEVER compared Co. Fermanagh to other areas in the context of unsolved cases given that the legacy team was working bh blah. So why do you ask for data on this? You want data on something you are interested in to prove your point, YOU get the data.

    Still shocked you did not know about what may would perceive to be the ethnic cleansing in Co. Fermanagh during the troubles. After all there were a total of 116 deaths related to the Troubles, over 100 of which were perpetrated by the IRA, and more than 90% of them remain unsolved. Think about that.



  • Registered Users Posts: 10,665 ✭✭✭✭maccored



    wakey wakey, collusion has been proven. Are you related to Blanch152 because both of you could do with learning a bit and doing your research a bit better. He says she says and dodgy media reporting just arent good enough sources.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,704 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    If it was in the interest of the British people not to have their citizens murdered, why did they go ahead and murder some of them?

    The citizens murdered were later proved to be totally innocent. Most egregious was the particularly brutal gunning down of thirteen innocent protesters on bloody Sunday by the Parachute Regiment. Many more innocent citizens were murdered by the British Army in a long campaign in the Ballymurphy estate?

    One British soldier was due to stand trial recently for murder (50 years after the fact) but died prior to the long delayed trial.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,330 ✭✭✭Francis McM


    Glad you are wakening up, collusion was proven -for example - many years ago, when a tribunal found there had been collusion here in the Republic between members of the Gardaí and the IRA, which resulted in the deaths of some RUC. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smithwick_Tribunal

    That is not to tar the entire Gardai: most Gardai were very against the IRA/Republicans, especially as some Gardai were murdered by Republicans etc. At least 23 serving Gardaí have been killed by individuals or groups associated with the Republican paramilitary groups

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Garda%C3%AD_killed_in_the_line_of_duty

    Hundreds of thousands of security force personnel served in N.I. during the 3 decades of the trouble. Considering so many people suffered ptsd and stress from seeing colleagues blown up, seriously injured, and from being being targets 24/7, it was inevitable there would be a few bad apples there too.

    Republicans still committed 60% of the murders and nearly 100% of the thousands of explosions / damage to property (economic war).



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,848 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    We know it wasn't 'a few bad apples'. As far back as Widgery we know for a fact the cover-ups went up into the Army hierarchy and the judiciary, who constructed fallacies about events. Despite this and other incidents of collusion and alleged collusion, we have yet to see a sworn inquiry into collusion generally in the north.

    Currently there is a fight to stop the British legislatively covering up again.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,330 ✭✭✭Francis McM


    The Widgery report uncovered that McGuinness was seen with a machine gun that day, as seen and testified by Fr Daly (later Bishop Daly). Something that did not make Daly popular around Derry for a few years;). Was it not a case there was also collusion between the British Authorities and the PIRA, in having the priest involved in the Claudy bombing moved quietly away, in order to avoid further bloodshed in NI. And you talk about collusion:) Of course there was, as proven by the Smithwick Tribunal. And what about the arms trial?

    What do you think about the 23 serving Gardaí who have been killed by individuals or groups associated with the Republican paramilitary groups?



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,848 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    I don't care who the collusion was with...what do you not understand about that.

    No amount of pointing over there vindicates the state with responsibility from colluding with paramilitaries or acting covertly or covering up the actions of their forces.

    If you want to judge the state on the same level as paramilitaries, you go right ahead.

    I hold them to a higher threshold.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,330 ✭✭✭Francis McM


    Of course there were some innocent people killed by the security forces of the UK, same as there were innocent people killed by the Irish security services and every government in the world. I would condemn those, as would every right thinking person. However the truth may need be as clear cut as you were led to believe. Remember hundreds of thousands of security force people served in N.I. over the course of the troubles. They were humans. Did some of those hundreds of thousands make mistakes? Yes, of course some did. Did most or even 1% - that is one per cent - of the hundreds of thousands kill a single person, or do anything wrong which led to the death of one person each? The answer has to be no, given the overall death toll. Otherwise the numbers killed would have been far higher.

    Interesting Bloody Sunday is mentioned, yet again for the millionth time. Any word on who killed the catholic and protestant policemen in Derry just before Bloody Sunday, leading to increased tensions on Bloody Sunday? Also, according to the link below, "Sinn Fein MP Martin McGuinness admitted he was the IRA gunman who sparked Bloody Sunday with a single shot, according to an informer, the Saville inquiry was told" https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2000/apr/07/bloodysunday.northernireland



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,848 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    This is an article focusing on the British attempt to impose forgetting on the Irish people in it's Legacy and Reconciliation Bill. We can see on this thread the very active attempt to 'condemn the condemners'

    Such contemporary collusion denial − whether in terms of individual (perpetrator) or institutional/state (official) denial − derives from ‘collective, societal and individual impulses to reject or re-contextualise disturbing facts’.

    Various techniques are adopted to neutralise the ‘moral bind of law’, both before the act (making ‘wrongdoing’ possible) and after – to ‘protect’ the perpetrator from ‘self-blame and the blame of others’.

     

    This includes the ‘denial of responsibility’ (‘that was not supposed to happen’), ‘denial of injury’ (‘it was not that bad’) or ‘denial of the victim’ (‘they are really in the wrong’). The ‘condemnation of the condemners’ questions the motives of critics while an ‘appeal to higher loyalties’ invokes the bonds of group-belonging as justifying that which, within wider society, appears wrong.


    These ‘vital lies’ preserve collective myths and provide a ‘moral vocabulary of self-exoneration’. In other words, such denial acts to ease both individual and collective cognitive dissonance created by the space between what should have been done and what actually happened. It also preserves the flawed ongoing claims by state agencies and institutions to have acted within the rule of law and so may underpin the potential of state wrongdoing to be repeated.


    Legacy, truth and collusion in the North of Ireland - Mark McGovern, 2023 (sagepub.com)


    *It is worth reading alone to see how state wrongdoing can operate on many levels.



  • Registered Users Posts: 10,665 ✭✭✭✭maccored


    re the cost of a United Ireland - I asked this before and got some kind of buffoonery as a reply, plus I mentioned it in the other thread on a UI - why are we talking about cost before we have even discussed the concept? Where is the logic there? why dont we have a citizen's assembly about it? What is the argument against that idea?


    https://www.sinnfein.ie/files/2022/Citizens_Assembly_on_Irish_Unity.pdf



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,848 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    I have made the observation before, the objection to any official process that even discusses a UI is based in fear. Unionists don't want it to start because they fear the process and what may happen if a debate begins.

    Partitioists here dread it because their real numbers may be revealed. Unionists see their hold on the electorate in the north diminishing while partitionists know there is a majority who would 'like' a UI here, both Unionists and partionists fear the clarity a Citizens Assembly and the plan/White paper it would bring forward. Unionists fear the attitude of the British gov to any process while partitionists fear the support the rest of the EU and the US etc might provide.

    Both will stridently announce that a BP hasn't a hope, but neither is willing to put that to the test.



  • Registered Users Posts: 26,511 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    For over a century the official policy of this State, and of its dominant political parties, has been in favour of reunification. It would be absurd to ditch such a long-standing and central policy without a very full exploration of the policy itself and of the policy alternatives.

    It would be fair to say that, precisely because of the broad consensus about this policy, the policy itself has not been much discussed or debated, and it remains quite vague. But that, too, argues in favour of some serious research, reflection, examination and discussion.

    There are those who think that reunification is impractical, undesirable or both, but those people should be among the keenest to see a full engagement with the policy, since — assuming their good faith, which I do — they must think that getting properly to grips with the policy will need show how impractical or undesirable it is, and will force those who pay lip-service to it to confront reality.

    Rationally, both the proponents and the opponents of renunification should want the policy to be explored and fleshed out — the proponents, because the policy can't be implemented until it has been properly formed; and the opponents, because they should expect the exploration and fleshing out of the policy to result in increased opposition to it.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,704 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Well, this thread was started in response to an article in the IT by the economist John Fitzgerald where he opined the cost of a UI.

    He made the assumption that the entire cost of pensions and SW in NI would pass to the Irish State and a substantial cost of the UK debt pile would also pass to Ireland.

    Now I disagree with much of his assumptions. There are no absolutes regarding the cost of running the NI economy, because much of it is subsumed into the UK economy.

    In particular, the point about pensions paid by the state in NI. The state pension is paid to qualifying pensioners based on their contributions to National Insurance over their working lives. This is calculated on a UK basis, and although there is an attempt to isolate NI contributions, it cannot capture those whose working lives is spread across various regions of the UK. So, what happen to someone who contributed for 20 years in Lisburn and 20 years in Leeds? It is obvious that all UK state pensions (which currently are paid to qualifiers to any part of the world) will (or should) continue to be paid as currently. Pensions are not social welfare, and should not be considered SW for this very reason. Pensioners living outside the UK do not get SW payments that UK resident pensioners do get.

    This would account for an ongoing annual cost of about GB£3 billion.

    A second cost is derived from the Barrnet formula which was a quick ad hoc calculation from in 1978, and was intended as a temporary way of deciding the level of funding to the devolved assemblies for those functions devolved. [Of course it does not apply to England].

    This would account for about GB£5 billion.

    Then there is the question of the British National Debt and its ongoing cost. Well, high ticket items like the Cross Rail, HS2, and the extension of Heathrow Airport are all English projects, and in particular London and SE England projects that are all of no use or benefit to NI, Wales or Scotland. Add in the chumocracy scandals and there is justification for not passing any of these costs to the NI budget. They are just accountancy allocations anyway.

    Now exclude the various internal financial scandals like 'ash for cash' and the actual funding required becomes a lot less daunting.

    So, the net cost of the NI economy when these elements are excluded would that it funds itself - more or less.



  • Registered Users Posts: 26,511 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    While there are some good point in Sam's post, I think the methodology needs more thought.

    Essentially, the approach is to look at various elements of the current payments from Westminster to NI and see how they might be addressed in a reunification situation. But that approach takes the current subvention as a given; it fails to ask why NI needs this subvention, to what extent the need is attributable to partition, and whether ending partition might affect the need for the subvention (positively or negatively). After all the subvention has varied quite a lot from year to year even during partition.

    We're just taking a narrow look at government finances here, and even then just at a snapshot - this year's subvention - and treating that as an immutable fact of nature, so to speak.

    I think what's needed is a much broader look not at government finances but at NI's overall economy. Tax and spending in NI are both affected by NI's economic performance, so to model whether NI will need the same subvention, a bigger subvention or a smaller subvention after unification you must first of all ask how NI's economy will be affected by reunification. Which may not be easy to model, but the fact that it's difficult doesn't make it any less necessary.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 10,665 ✭✭✭✭maccored


    that to be fair didnt answer my question - why arent we discussing in fullall the aspects outlined in a UI (not just what a man in a newspaper says). You cant talk about costs in a vacuum



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