Potential Drought conditions?

squarecircles · 28-05-2023 10:12pm #1

Are we technically heading towards some form of a drought , the next 10 days look bone dry, and we havent had any rain in well over a week.

latest charts now seem to suggest the dry spell will continue after the 10 day period, particulary in the west of the country.

pad199207 · 28-05-2023 10:32pm

Have had plenty already this year. So this is Mother Nature balancing herself out.

Well needed dry spell if ya ask me.

igCorcaigh · 29-05-2023 12:23am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120652097#Comment_120652097

Not sure if it works like that... we should be harvesting water in big containers, both in the countryside and on each house, but what do I know about the economics of it all.

I'm being careful about how much times I flush the toilet anyway. Common sense, innit?

Danzy · 29-05-2023 12:33am

It's been drier longer than a week, weather wise it looks like a replay of 2018, that was a **** spring as well, whether it will be, who knows but you would be reasonable to plan for it.

Tomaldo · 29-05-2023 2:17am

I see neighbors hosing their driveways, family members running taps without reason, am I the only one who thinks water charges were a good idea

squonk · 29-05-2023 8:48am

The big issue in this country is we’re so accustomed to rain falling that we don’t plan for the times it doesn’t. Here in the west it’s likely there’ll be some bit of rain most days. Indeed we’ve had rather a lot the past few months. Ground was fairly wet up until a few days ago and it’s still drying out. As late as last Saturday week we had an absolute deluge for 20 minutes followed by quite a wet evening but I’m sure that in a Fortnite there’ll be councils banging on sbout water shortages. Really it’s like getting a decent salary every month and being really stuck fir cash after a month when you’re laid off because you just spent the salary and didn’t think about serious savings. That’s how this place operates with water and they then turn around and blame consumers for their inability to plan.

Gusser09 · 29-05-2023 8:51am

I have the paddling pool out for the kids. Let them enjoy it while they can. More than likely it'll be a washout when they are on holidays.

Gonzo · 29-05-2023 9:52am

I can't believe there is a thread about this already after just 1 to 2 weeks of dry weather which is nothing unusual. We have had a largely very wet pattern since September 2nd 2022 with just a few breaks from the deluges and this is one of them. The land here in Meath is still in it's drying out stage after so much rain between Autumn and this Spring. This current dry spell was very badly needed. We don't need rain 52 weeks of the year.

compsys · 29-05-2023 3:16pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120652809#Comment_120652809

Agree.

Though I think the problem in Ireland is that even at the rainiest of times the country's water supply can be on a knife edge. It usually doesn't take much for the country's supply to come under pressure.

But you'd still think we could take another three or four weeks of nice weather before we have to start to worry...

Gusser09 · 29-05-2023 3:18pm

LOL. A week.

Its hitting 3 weeks in north kildare since we have had any significant rainfall. That's extreme for us in ireland.

DownByTheGarden · 29-05-2023 3:20pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120652440#Comment_120652440

Yes. Look at electricity smart plans and tell us water charges wouldnt have gone the same way.

pauldry · 29-05-2023 3:21pm

As soon as the word water restrictions is mentioned in the media it will rain for months. Spain just getting our weather for now. In 2 weeks time wer back to our run of the mill Northwesterlies forever if you ask me.

March was a very wet month but the others around normal around here. Wev had 17mm of rain in the past 10 days. Soil moisture deficits are 30 to 40mm around the country. To mention drought these would need to be below 70mm I'd reckon.

DownByTheGarden · 29-05-2023 3:23pm

We live in Ireland. It will be raining again soon. It would be very, very rare that we run out of water in Ireland.

Actually not rare .... never.

But no shortage of people saying the sky is falling with a few sunny days.

.Donegal. · 29-05-2023 3:24pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120654346#Comment_120654346

Yeah water restrictions happen very easily where I am. I’d say it’ll be off from 11pm to 7/8am like usually if it stays dry the following week maybe even later this week.

pauldry · 29-05-2023 3:51pm

Yeah it's most likely going to be "what a great 2 week spell that was" and then "I can't believe this is what Summer is like in Ireland" is back and "I'm definitely booking a flight to.....to escape this s@it. "

mr.stonewall · 29-05-2023 3:55pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120654378#Comment_120654378

The South east is currently in the 50mm bracket for SMD. With another dry week ahead it will easily add another 30mm to it.

Check out the agriculture commentary on Met eireann makes interesting reading

Gonzo · 29-05-2023 5:00pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120654508#Comment_120654508

I think this summer will be mixed but we're bound to get some nice spells of summer from time to time as well, we usually do. I don't think we will see the exceptional temperatures we got last summer but a few days of mid twenties is definitely possible in June or July. Last summer we finally broke the very long streak of crap Augusts, hopefully we can escape a poor August again this year.

adocholiday · 29-05-2023 8:30pm

It's about 3 weeks I think since we had any significant rain in South Wicklow. I'm on a well and I'm a bit water conscious now we've gone that long without rain. I don't think it'll dry up any time soon, but with no rain forecast in the near term probably no harm to be a little bit prudent.

John.Icy · 29-05-2023 9:10pm

To actually answer the threads question - for my own local Met E station (Dublin Airport). Met Eireann definitions of climatological droughts:

''An absolute drought is a period of 15 or more consecutive days with less than 0.2 mm on each.''

''A partial drought is a period of at least 29 consecutive days with a rainfall total averaging less than 0.2 mm of rain per day.''

The last day 0.2mm was reached was the 14th of May (0.2mm recorded). I wonder is it strictly less than or is it less than or equal to 0.2mm? If 0.2mm is OK then we go back to the 11th.

15 days ago to the 14th anyway. No real rain in sight for 5+ days to come if not more. So I imagine Met Eireann will be chiming in shortly to confirm an absolute drought there and maybe elsewhere.

Don't think it really matters if it rained a lot in September or March according to those definitions, has no impact to what a meteorological drought is anyway. We've had some wet months alright but December, January and February were not wet months in much of the East. February was incredibly dry. Driest in Dunsany (Meath) and Phoenix (Dublin) since 1965. What March probably did was save the farmers for now as soils are still workable and growth not too restricted.

Dublin (both DA and PP) have already had full partial droughts this year.

Agricultural drought is something else. Soil moisture deficit above 75mm for that. Not there yet. And today I learned of hydrological drought which is what impacts water levels/reservoirs and I've no idea where we stand there, assume it's also fine at this stage.

squonk · 29-05-2023 9:44pm

Well the west is different. We had rain about 9 days ago. In fact we had a trace amount about 7 days ago here.

JanuarySnowstor · 29-05-2023 10:56pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120652809#Comment_120652809

I thought the Winter was notable for its dry weather, indeed February exceptionally so. Granted March was a deluge for all. A drought looks odds on by early next week at least a technical one

pauldry · 29-05-2023 11:50pm

Ya by the end of the weekend growth will start to become restricted if no rain. All it takes is a couple of weeks sunny. And an East wind is a dry one too. It does currently look like a breakdown comes after the Bank Holiday but could be slow. Highest temperature of the whole Summer could be in the next few days if Spain steals back its weather.

esposito · 30-05-2023 12:10am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120656119#Comment_120656119

You do know it is possible to have high pressure over Spain and Ireland at the same time. I would think our highest temperature of the summer will be in July and August. There’s bound to be more high pressure episodes and/or plumes between now and September. Fairly certain this won’t be a 2015 or 2016 train wreck.

pauldry · 30-05-2023 11:31am

Ya could be. My son said to me the other day "remember a few years ago we said wow its 30c and now we say it nearly every year". Even children are noticing.

When our weather eventually breaks down there are hints at warmer weather coming up from the South through Spain and France so maybe this plume will reach us later in June. What's certain is its uncertain.

Going back to the thread title walking to work today a lot of grass in direct sunlight beginning to turn yellow.

Gusser09 · 31-05-2023 8:55am

Amazing out again this morning. I certainly can't recall a dry warm period like this in May for a long time.

I remember the start of the year and people wetting themselves with excitement because it was cold for a few days. This to me is more extreme than that. No rainfall of any consequence where I am for around 3 weeks now if not longer. Long may it last.

pad199207 · 31-05-2023 9:06am

20 days since last significant rainfall which was 15mm

17 days since 0.4mm fell in Kildare

squonk · 31-05-2023 10:01am

I’m lucky enough to be off this week and waking up knowing it’ll be fine is fabtastic. Great for doing outdoorsy stuff but you have to get finished by the afternoon here because it just gets too warm. Quite an extreme thought. 10 days ago it was dull here in Clare with occasional mist and temps getting up to around 15 if you were lucky. It would be lovely to have a gradual build up of heat over a few weeks so you could acclimatise but it’s Ireland so someone switches on the fine weather abd tempd soar within a few days. Not complaining right now though as I can have my breakfast outside and there’s a relatively cool breeze in the shade but it’s nice!

compsys · 31-05-2023 10:18am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120661007#Comment_120661007

In fairness, Ireland probably has the lowest gradual build-up of heat of any country in the world.

Even going from 15° to 24° is hardly extreme. And it’s not like that happened overnight. It took a few days for the heat to build up in the west, and here in the east it’s still barely 18°.

In parts of Canada, the US, Russia, and even Europe you could go from 10° to 30° in the space of a day or so

Gonzo · 31-05-2023 10:50am

Current GFS output shows that we may not see rainfall until at least the 12th to 14th of June. Of course that is in the unreliable timeframe and this prolonged dry spell could just break down quickly out of nowhere, never underestimate the power of the Atlantic. However I think it's reasonably safe to assume we ain't going to see any rainfall over the next 5 to 7 days. Long may it continue.

pauldry · 31-05-2023 3:10pm

SMD on the increase. Get set for the now annual yella grass.

pauldry · 31-05-2023 3:28pm

The last day in Sligo we had continuous rain for 5 to 6 hours was Saturday May 20th. Quite the soaking. 10mm of heavy misty drizzle. Nothing since then so 11 days dry will soon become 20.

pauldry · 31-05-2023 3:32pm

Last rain of any description in Dublin May 12th so at day 20 now. Notably hasn't broken 20c there yet

compsys · 31-05-2023 3:39pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120662587#Comment_120662587

Phoenix Park and Casement have topped 20º on two or three occasions I think. DA is always a tad cooler.

pauldry · 31-05-2023 3:45pm

Rain lower than I thought I NW too. Finner had 9mm on May 10th but got little of the 10mm Sligo got on May 20th though we were dry on May 21st

I will stop posting these charts now in case yer all bored.

sryanbruen · 31-05-2023 8:02pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120662587#Comment_120662587

Not that unusual for the airport. It took until 9th June last year and that’s with a warm spring!

Oneiric 3 · 01-06-2023 10:11am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120655582#Comment_120655582

I have never understood the logic behind this definition of a drought. 15 days with that set of criteria is considered an 'absolute drought', but 29 days, which is effectively twice as long, and using the same criteria, is only considered a 'partial drought'. I would have thought that this would be the other way around. 29 consecutive days without meaningful rain seems more 'absolute' than just 15.

Perhaps it is just me just reading the whole definition wrongly though.

sryanbruen · 01-06-2023 10:48am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120665201#Comment_120665201

Absolute is actual total <0.2mm.

Partial is an average of <0.2mm over a longer period. So there could be the odd day greater than 0.2mm but if the whole period averages under that then it's a partial drought, if it were absolute it would be over if it goes over that mark.

squarecircles · 01-06-2023 11:07am

Reading comments on the netweather forum from english folk, theyre buried in pig muck, its bemusing, theyre getting a dose of what we get in ireland most summers, god love them.

pauldry · 01-06-2023 11:09am

Looking to see when we get next rain and June 7th a shower. June 10th maybe some light rain. So in general the next 10 days dry.

squarecircles · 01-06-2023 11:18am

Fine spell continuing for the first week of June

By Meteorologists Rebecca Cantwell and Evelyn Cusack, Monday 29th May, 2023.

The current fine spell is set to continue over the June Holiday Weekend and right through the first week in June. The Azores anticyclone (high pressure system) is shifted from its normal position around the Azores (and hence its name) up to the north of Ireland producing an Easterly airflow over Ireland. This is called a blocking high Pressure system as it literally blocks out the rainbelts in the Atlantic and diverts away the Jet stream and low pressure systems to the north and to the south and in fact over the Azores the Azores High has been replaced this week by a Low Pressure system and rain . Over Southern Europe daytime heavy showers and thunderstorms will occur from Portugal over to Greece, while we enjoy fine, dry weather. See the Atlantic chart below showing the Azores High shifted to the north of Ireland and the precipitation forecast over Mediterranean countries.

So lovely, fine, sunny weather in store for Bloom and for all the myriad events around the country for the June Weekend but also for the start of the Leaving cert and best wishes to all the students from Met Éireann.

Sea temperatures are nearly 16°C off Kerry but only 12°C in the Northeast Sea-surface-temperature so an east to northeast airflow makes it feel fresh anywhere along the north and east coast with air temperatures here typically of 15 to 18°C. But apart from these coastal areas and mountains mountains-forecast it will be warm with maximum values reaching 21 to 24°C countrywide and as high as 25 degrees in in parts of the west.

Safety on the Water: Please take great care if out on or near water. Avoid swimming in potentially treacherous locations like flooded quarries. Swim at designated, lifeguarded waterways and beaches, between the flags, where possible. Stay within your depth. Always wear a personal flotation device/lifejacket when boating or angling and ensure that it has correctly fitting straps. Contact the Coastguard if you see somebody in trouble or think they are in trouble on the water or along the coast Dial 112/999 https://watersafety.ie/open-water-swimming/

Visit EPA Beaches.ie to view bathing water quality and get the Met Éireann weather forecast for over 200 beaches around Ireland.

UV: The UV index is 7. Seek shade during peak sunshine hours of 12-3pm, this is when UV is at its highest and people are at greatest risk of sunstroke and sunburn. Cover up with a hat and long sleeved T-shirt. Skin cancer is the most common type of cancer in Ireland and to help prevent it don’t burn. https://www.met.ie/uv-index Remain hydrated. Carry plenty of water on journeys in case of delays due to increased numbers visiting coastal and rural areas.

Fire: There is a Fire Danger Notice – Condition Orange in operation until the 6th June (likely to be extended). Ground conditions are quite dry so please do not ignite naked flames in any woodland or grassland areas. Never barbecue in parks, wildland areas or any site in close proximity to vegetation, trees etc. Most wildfires in Ireland are a result of human activities and are therefore avoidable. Fire-danger-notices

Please do enjoy the fine weather but stay safe. Met Éireann now has a daily audio weather forecast available as a podcast, recorded by our weather forecasters. Search Weather Forecast from Met Éireann on your podcast player – it’s available now on Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher and more. Or listen on Audioboom if the player is not available. For your local 10-day forecast www.met.ie or App

Gonzo · 01-06-2023 11:35am

Enjoy the lovely weather while it is here. It has to be said we are doing remarkably well compared to the UK. I am kinda surprised to see how intense the cooling affect of the North Sea has been on the UK mainland with chilly temperatures not just along the east coast, but it gets right into central and western England including eastern parts of Wales. London is cold as well which is a real surprise. Currently the majority of England and Wales is just 12C. We have seen this sort of setups before in May where the west is warmer but not to this extreme level of difference.

Eastern half of Ireland has not done great with temperatures in recent times due to the onshore winds but at least it's been mostly sunny and while it's a bit on the cool side, it's still several degrees warmer than the majority of the UK mainland. This weekend will see a recovery in the temperatures for the eastern half of Ireland where temperatures of 20 to 21 or possibly 22C are likely to occur away from coastal areas, so the cooling affect will get reduced alot as the high positions itself over us more.

We have at least another week of this sort of setup to come however I do believe we will see a flip around around the middle of June where eastern Ireland as well as England and Wales will warm up considerably compared to current values. We should also turn more unsettled into the second half of the month although I don't see a return to the deluge pattern of March and April any time soon. By mid June any rain that does fall will be well needed by then.

Just looking at the GFS 6z and it's starting to show some showery conditions for the north-west this weekend and the early part of next week which is something I wasn't expecting.

Will this return of showers and rain for the NW verify for the weekend and beyond? I'm not so sure i'm buying this just now. Will wait and see what the 12z brings along with the other models.

pauldry · 01-06-2023 12:03pm

It's the convection from days of heat. Hopefully the coast escapes for us sea swimmers.

Gusser09 · 01-06-2023 3:14pm

This really is amazing at this stage. This is a lot more unexpected and rare for us compared to the "cold snap" we had earlier on this year.

Now 3 weeks without a drop of rain in NE Kildare.

Long may it last. Its great. Shocked i havent heard calls for a hose ban yet. LOL.

Gonzo · 01-06-2023 4:55pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120666596#Comment_120666596

With so much rain from early September to beginning of May the ground isn't too bad but it is starting to dry out at this stage. If we are still chasing raindrop charts in 2 weeks time then things may begin to come more serious.

JanuarySnowstor · 01-06-2023 10:28pm

Grass is getting very yellow here now. I'd say by this time next week we'll be into serious drought conditions...with growth already restricted

pauldry · 02-06-2023 12:17am

Here's a little known fact. Yesterday I was looking up how long since Donegals Finner had rain and it was 20 days. 21 now. However even more astonished when I discovered for that station

RAINFALL

October Above normal

November Below normal

December Below normal

January Below normal

February Below normal

March Below normal

April Below normal

May Below normal

June none yet.

What's going on in Donegal?

The last rain is actually May 20th just like here but 5mm there and 10mm here.

Tomaldo · 02-06-2023 1:47am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120654372#Comment_120654372

Electricity still has to be paid for, peak time or not. My late father would have more of a problem with my sisters if they left the immersion on or had lights on in a room they weren't using, than if they came home pregnant. Taps running needlessly weren't a problem.

Thelonious Monk · 02-06-2023 7:49am

Is it just because we have awful water infrastructure and a lack of reservoirs etc. that what seems to be one of the wettest places on Earth starts talking about drought after a few weeks with no rain? Or is it because there are so many farm animals reliant on grass? Just seems amazing to me that after so much rain over winter and in March we're already fretting.

Should we not be investing in infrastructure given this could become more common with the climate changing?

pauldry · 02-06-2023 11:32am

Grass feeling a bit of the stress on South facing stretches now here in Sligo

Will be interesting to see these 2 pictures 1 week from now.

DownByTheGarden · 02-06-2023 1:03pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120668651#Comment_120668651

P:oint being that you pay more for electricity with the smart plans. Even before the war. Meters are not good for anybodies pocket.

.Donegal. · 02-06-2023 5:39pm

It’s still early days but what’s different about this year compared to last year is how extensive the drought “could” be across Ireland with the current SMD and forecasted precipitation over the next while. Below is last years summer rainfall , there were large regional differences and SMD.

Last June rainfall was above average in most places but below average in the East. Dublin airport 65% of normal with 43.6mm while Newport Mayo had 148mm.

July had below average rainfall everywhere but Finner and Malin head had in excess of 80% the LTA. They both recorded 22 rain days while Oak park Carlow had 6. Shannon had the lowest monthly total with 20.77mm.

August once again below average rainfall everywhere but Newport Mayo recorded 104.1mm 79% of its LTA while Roche’s point recorded 14mm only 14% of its LTA. Knock and Malin head recorded 19 rain days.

I wasn’t in Ireland during August last year but I don’t remember seeing any dead/yellow grass in June or July up here. Now I’m noticing some already.

The SMD are very close across the country in comparison to last year.

Soil moisture deficits (SMDs) across all soil types currently range from 35 to 45mm over northern parts of the country and 45 to 60mm elsewhere. All soils are trafficable with some restriction to growth. With dry, warm and largely sunny conditions over the coming week, SMDs will generally increase by 15 to 20mm, likely ranging from 50 to 70mm, generally, and potentially over 70mm in the parts of the southeast. Growth will thus become increasingly restricted and ground conditions will become hard and dusty.

The ecm precipitation chart has zero/negligible rainfall over the next 10 days. If that transpires we’ll be hearing a lot more about it.

Potential Drought conditions?

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