Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Prop queries

’there was 60mm of rain in Cambodia yesterday. I think this clearly shows that there will certainly be AT LEAST a 60% drop in Irish House Prices in the next 3 months’

No end to that man’s creativity. The thread was better with him around.

But what will the Shinners actually do regarding housing?

increase vacant land tax, yes.

Possibly restrict investment funds, which will just lead to fewer homes being built, not more.

We arent going to magic up thousands of tradesmen becasue the Shinners get in. So where is their labour?

I just dont see a clear path to them actually increasing output, especially when facing into a headwind of higher interest rates and building costs.

The Shinners are certainly an unknown prospect and yes, they have clearly set their stall out on house building.

But as we all know, promises are often made with little substance by politicians.

I am interested to see how they will increase housing output. What will they do differently...

I like the Modular home idea and there will likley be precedent for that at scale to house Asylum Seekers.

I wonder whether these homes will be objected into oblivion in urban areas, where people want to live, though.

I agree that the young folks cant afford the prices, but that doesnt mean the Shinners will oversee increased housing output, it just means that either the young wont get a look in (like today) or the prices will fall. Which, of course, is likley.

40k increase in contruction staff is a lot in 12 months, put its post covid and from Q2 2021 to Q2 2022.

Most industries were resetting during that period, so its to be expected.

i am thinking more in comparitive terms with today. The industry isnt going to expand at that rate from now and over the next 5 years.

If we take 2022 and 2023 housing outputs, which is 23k to 30k in 2022 and perhaps 20k to 25k this year, are the Shinners likley to up that output significantly?

I dont really see how.

Construction industry is expected to expand about 4% annually over the next 3 years, so no sign of large numbers of staff being made available from here on out.

Perhaps SF will invest more heavily in social housing completions & scale up teams there and hopefully they would take some blockages out of the planning process. But all that will take time to enact and years to realise.

Over the next 5 yrs, its hard to see the numbers rising too much over 30k per year, regardless of who is in govt.

Hopefully I am wrong.

Well I predict that there will be a softening, time will tell especially if IR stay elevated for the next year or so and the 3-4 year fixer mortgage people at very low interest rates from 2019/covid times end up with some slapped ar$e.

You won't see price drops at that level in Dublin, more likely to see more competition as those that were fishing in the 400/500k pool have been kicked out to the 300/400k pool

It will be interesting to see effect of two more rate hikes on the market.

More interesting will be what happens if banks are forced to up their deposit rates and knock on effects on mortgage markets. I am hearing more and more people moving money out of Irish banks to try chase yields.

Your looking at this from the POV of the company if an asset is not used there is a tax someone somewhere has to pay if its not used, shell companies can transfer assets I am sure there would be a cost for doing this not to mention a tax. It needs to be done from the asset POV if someone has planning to build and the site is left vacant each year its not built on tax needs to be paid on it by someone.

Would that apply to all planning permissions? How would that effect people unable to build their one off house in that specified time?

Developers may also just apply for new planning prior to the time period elapsing, therefore negating the requirement to pay tax as sites going through the planning process may be exempt.

Hardly surprising though? Let your spare property out on Airbnb, guaranteed to receive the rent once it is occupied, and guaranteed that the occupant will vacate on the agreed date, and I'm certain that there's cover from Airbnb if the property gets ruined.

None of these guarantees are offered for long term letting to a tenant.

Given below was announced as approved today, does anyone know when a decision will be made on the Hammersmith development located at the old shopping centre?

Planning permission granted for 852 social and affordable homes on Central Mental Hospital site in Dundrum

The market is at the margin not the complete stock. You can't enter a rental agreement on an occupied home.

The comparison is like for like

Number of full units available for short term let v long term let

How can you solve a housing issue if buyers can make them mini B&B's and lock them up for 8 months of the year.

Fair enough in an oversupply issue. Could be an easy win for a new government

Prospects of LL recovering the money owed, virtually zero I suspect.

Because property owners are for the most part, voters. People are fed up being told what they can and can’t do with their homes. Also, the Government has substantially reduced available beds for guests/tourists by temporarily renting hotels/guesthouses themselves for Ukrainians fleeing the war. In some tourist areas, businesses are tanking without tourists, airbnbs are the only accomadation available.

What some don’t seem to realise is that many, if not all short let owners have made the decision not to let to long term tenants. I have an Airbnb house, it will sit empty before I let it to a tenant.

As long as its virtually impossible to evict somebody, property owners will find ways to avoid long term lets.