Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Posters are consistently bleating on about owners opting for short let renting rather than long term tenancies, as if Airbnb is the root of all evil. The simple fact is that if the Government addressed the concerns of landlords rather than focusing on short lets, LLs wouldn’t be exiting the tenancy sector. It’s easy to blame the owners, but if owners suspect SF are going to make conditions even worse for Landlords, then it is hardly a surprise that more owners decide to terminate tenancies.

https://archive.ph/DwN0H

You make a good point. Typically a short term let attracts a higher rate of return than a standard lease due to the risk associated with increased chances of vacancy periods (hence no income generation). But the problems associated with unfavourable tax treatment of SLLs and issue in evicting bad tenants, along with the shortage of holiday accomodation then that equation no longer holds true.

Our intellectual property tax scam is getting alot of attention nationally and internationally lately. Expect that to increase if we are entering a global slowdown recession plus elections in the most affected country.

Spend the excess on infrastructure and housing to increase our competitiveness rather than spending that makes these far more expensive than they need to be

Its been getting that attention for a decade, genuinely.

Listen to O'Broin here multiple times showing how thick he is. Yet he doubles down on it and says the other person is factually incorrect.

Imagine someone as stupid as this running the show.

I dont know what worse, that he is a minister in waiting or that he really thinks he is correct here.

Its at 10 mins. See if you can spot the clanger. Should be easy.

https://www.rte.ie/radio/radio1/clips/22256253/

Vacancy tax is virtually impossible to implement where a LL has only a single rental. Most STL's are only rental property by a LL. With some it's there only property in Ireland which they do not want to LTL.

As well the EU has shot down the present STL legislation the government planned

Yes if build cost exceed sales cost they will stop building. They burn through cash too fast. That was exasperated the last crash for a lot of builders. When the downturn started in early 2008 many kept building to keep construction crews together.

The problem for Dublin is that 50% of construction workers travel on and out every day. Transport alone is probably 1-200/week. Construction workers only travel distance if they are being paid substantially more than locally.

You could actually see construction slow down by 20-50% in Dublin and construction increase outside Dublin as workers/sub contractors price work at lower rates to the rates they require to work in Dublin

Yet if they have no revenue stream coming in how do the people who own these construction companies keep the wolves from the door its not like before where they could get a nice cheap loan to keep them afloat anymore that option is now gone with rate rises. The construction slowdown is country wide if anything Dublin is still the busiest spot where the majority of construction work is being done in the country. So do all of these builders who were employed become sole traders, do they hit the dole, do the emigrate. The issues facing the construction worker in 2023 is far different to the one in 2008. Add in property prices are dropping so how do you ask more for something like a new house when it has evidently become too expensive for the vast majority of the would be buyers to buy. Also 10 Billion profit made by top 50 construction companies in Ireland last year that is a lot of profit margin that could well be thinned to keep the going.

Beatings will continue until moral improves.

Once again 10 Billion profit made last year from the top 50 construction companies in the country its hardly chump change. Then you have to consider the reason why property prices are going down as this is a sure sign that affordability is eating into demand so people simply cannot afford the current price point - So what do these developers do, they are currently seeing a healthy profit and property prices dropping in price due to affordability it seems to go against the grain to think that developers will not be impacted by this new paradigm.

I can only see 3 outcomes for Irish developers as prices are going to continue dropping.

1: government steps in with further goodies to keep these cowboys ticking over. (Number 1 will be off the table once Sinn Fein get in)

2: Developers sit on their hands and a lot of them will go to the wall. ..

3 Developers cut their profits and continue building.

in your head the only way forward is for property prices to rise as that is the only developers keep getting the profit margin they have been getting, which is not going to happen you only need to look globally at what the rate hikes are doing to property why people thought Ireland was going to be immune is bonkers. Already 6 months of price drops in Dublin.

Once again, those projects commenced some years ago, the prospects of selling all those units were favourable. If those same developers were commencing the design/planning stage today, would they be as optimistic? I don’t think so, there is a good chance that if you polled all those developers today and asked them would they start over, they would say no, the conditions are not the same, costs would increase, selling prices may decrease and there is a risk of recession.

SF may be many things, I’d say one of them is pragmatic, if they want developers to build, they will need more carrot than stick. There is a knowledge/experience imbalance, developers are in the property game a long time, SF are puppies trying to run with big dogs.