Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

I find this approach odd. I strongly suspect he’s doing what his election strategist tells him. To be honest, I can see why. Even if a third of voters are firmly entrenched old gammon (which they are), alienating them will hand a tranche to the tories. I honestly don’t think he can be judged until he’s in office. I doubt he will stick rigidly to anything much.

I think he’s honest, and well meaning. This is an absolutely huge step up.

i think he will wait until more of the brexit vote has died off, and then move towards rejoining the single market. That’ll be enough to hold the centre I think. Rejoining the EU could most likely happen from there, in a generation or so, once there is a groundswell of PR pointing out that they are part of the SM, but without a seat at the table.

Honestly, I think that given the trade imbalance, the EU would happily read it the UK back into the single market. Back into the EU will take a different generation I’d imagine.

You only have to google Brexit with "Lead, not Leave" and you'll find lots of references.

Anyway why are you so defensive? Do you honestly believe that there's no such thing as a condescending British europhile?

I never once heard that throughout my time living in the UK before or after the Brexit vote.

Schengen is not needed for the SM (nor for the CU) and 4 EU countries are not member of Schengen.

The queues at Dover and in airport is mostly a UK problem.

But the UK will not, I believe, be allowed to join anything but the 100% full EU - no opt-outs, everything - or continue as now with the TCA possibly with a few smaller mitigations.

It was the UK that voted for the Brexit stupidity. The UK was of course will have to handle all the unpleasantness that follows.

Lars 😀

All Starmer has to say is that the Tory negotiated version of Brexit is a total and abject failure. That doesn't necessarily imply any criticism of the Leave vote in 2016. And yet he seems terrified to say even this, for fear that it might enrage the 'Red Wall' voters.

The OH has a UK passport.

Went to Crete (Chania) last week from Dublin. No problem entering or leaving. They just looked at the passport and stamped it both times.

What's more sickening is that Brown was spinning that the UK needed the EU to tackle its own money laundering to the likes of the Caymans and Channel isles.

That's essentially it.

It will take a series of events like another severe Sterling devaluation for reality to hit home in poundland. Even then the thought of losing face will sustain their adherence to Brexit.

Theyll keep Brexiting until the uk itself dissolves.

I dunno.

There's already substantial evidence of widespread disenchantment with Brexit, including on the part of a large cohort of those who voted Leave.

What stops this turning into a mass Rejoin movement is, I think, a reluctance to see the Brexit wars reopened, coupled with I think a pessimistic assumption that rejoining will be long and difficult and will not result in a restoration of the UK's former position in the EU, but instead of a new position on different (and less favourable) terms.

People are not adhering to Brexit because they hail the referendum as a glorious moment of democracy which must not be betrayed by having second thoughts, but because they think it's a done deal and they don't have the heart to revisit it. They're like a country that went to war and it ended badly; they don't like the way things turned out but they've no desire to go back to war again.

The path of least resistance is aligning Britain with northern Ireland.

There's no doubt that, even within the constraints of the Tory Hard Brexit as enshrined in the Withdrawal Agreement, there is scope for changes to the TCA that would improve the lot of the UK, and the scheduled review of the TCA could be an occasion for suggesting such changes.

The think is, within those constraints changes to the TCA can only make very marginal improvements to the UK's lot, and can only offset a very small amount of Brexit damage. If Starmer hopes to get any kudos for repairing Brexit without rejoining the EU, he needs to be much less accepting of Tory decisions to choose a maximally damaging Brexit. And if he's seen to be impotent to remediate Brexit harms in any meaningful way, that's going to be very damaging. We could even have the bizarre result in the next term of government that its the Tories, reinventing themselves while in opposition, who are the first to escape from the Brexit suicide cult, and who reap the electoral rewards of doing so.

At some point the EU will get tired of renegotiating with the UK every few years. Maybe Labour argues for a closer one, then the tories pull back and then Labour go back towards the EU etc.