Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

"Green" policies are destroying this country

Options
17527537557577581067

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 22,419 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    If we are interconnected with the European grid, then we are also using Nuclear, geothermal, Hydro etc as sources of electricity



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,419 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Nice fortune telling there, but if that happens then the economy that produces the most clean energy will benefit from a big competitive advantage.

    Wind and Solar are already cheaper on a marginal cost of production (as well as LCOE)

    It will be harder and harder for fossil fuel powered generators to stay economically viable

    Over a year, when we have our offshore wind infrastructure in place, we'll be net exporters of energy, more than enough to offset expensive electricity imported from oil or gas generators



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,559 ✭✭✭✭machiavellianme


    There's no "if", its a European Regulation applicable from next year.

    We are only net exporters of energy if (a) the market prices plus the losses (which will be at least 5%) is cheaper than the other country and (b) it is technically feasible to export without any binding system constraints. Look at the Netherlands for the past few weeks. Cheap power that no one wants and they can't export it all due to system instability. They're well interconnected in the Central European synchronous area. Our pissy little island is not synchronously connected to it so instability binds much faster.

    Worse still, on top of paying RES for transmission constraints, they'll also be paid for oversupply/curtailed energy that isn't wanted. A 5.5GW peak system in Ireland with more than 10GW of RES will all be paid €85ish per MWh regardless of us not using it. I fail to see how that's cheaper than just paying a couple of conventional plant the system marginal price for just the energy that actually generated/used?



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,787 ✭✭✭antoinolachtnai


    Because no one would go to the expense and risk of building a gas plant to be paid the system marginal price, for one thing.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,787 ✭✭✭antoinolachtnai


    The imbalance price does not set the wholesale price.

    There will be no CBAM on GB electricity imports.



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 12,993 ✭✭✭✭JRant


    "Well, yeah, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man"



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,137 ✭✭✭Mr. teddywinkles




  • Registered Users Posts: 22,419 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    They reduce curtailment and then reduce the need for peaker plants

    They increase the efficiency of the grid.

    They're both a load, and a supply



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,419 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    I suppose all technology is magic to people who don't understand any of it



  • Registered Users Posts: 171 ✭✭200mg


    You mean the kind of put more energy in to get less back kind of magic. So anyone going to say what the backup is ?



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 22,419 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    The backup in case the sun stops shining and the atmosphere loses all its gasses, and all the continents geothermal, hydro, nuclear, biomass and hydrogen all stop working at the same time?

    I think we'll have bigger fish to fry in that scenario.

    Here's a question for you. What's the backup for fossil fuels if there's a sustained continental scale heatwave and drought? All fossil fuel power generators and Nuclear require boiling vast amounts of water and turning it into steam.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,559 ✭✭✭✭machiavellianme


    Wrong on both counts. Why even post if you don't know what you are talking about?

    The average 5 minute imbalance price over the 30 minute settlement period is exactly what determines the wholesale prices in the SEM. Yes, there are Day Ahead prices and Intraday prices but the one that matters most in terms of the upper end is the ISP. That's the one that terrifies the generators due to the payback obligations if it exceeds the reliability strike price. Otherwise, what do you think sets it? Some random number generator?

    The only reason that CBAM is being introduced is to apply it on goods and services from non EU countries (e.g. the UK). Why would it be needed otherwise if every member is moving towards a federal target model?



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,559 ✭✭✭✭machiavellianme


    Every generator built to date has been built based on a number of cost recovery factors - Capacity payments, energy payments and system service payments. The system marginal price means very little to peaking plant as they'll generally only get the cost of producing their energy back but it matters a lot to CCGTs. Depending on whether they are settled on Complex Prices (their production costs) or Simple Prices (their unique offer costs), they can make significant inframarginal rents - they get to keep the difference between their costs and the system price. It hasn't stopped any gas plant from building previously and it's not stopping Kilroot from building now.

    They wouldn't build if all they were getting was capacity payments and system service payments. There's already so many suppliers delivering the services that gas plants can (except for inertia) but the energy prices are what gives them a chance of large profits. They just have to be more efficient than the generation setting the price.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,787 ✭✭✭antoinolachtnai


    Electricity prices for energy are determined by the market. The vast majority of electricity is traded in the day ahead market and a small amount in the intraday market. Only a very small amount is traded in the balancing arrangements. The markets are what largely determines the wholesale price, not the balancing pricing.

    I am lost on how this is even relevant to whatever point you are trying to make.

    The CBAM will not be relevant for GB because GB has a carbon pricing regime that applies a similar carbon price to the EU.



  • Registered Users Posts: 596 ✭✭✭deholleboom


    Not only that, the Earth would not have seen as much of the recent greening, especially in the tropics. Together with the slight rise in temperature (caused by the sun/oceans , the latter pushing up Co2 in the atmosphere plus our own through emissions) this has benefited the length and strength of the overall crop season with better yields, actually using less fertilizer. The plants stomata have been calibrated to higher Co2 levels and now have to use less water to get the same output.There has been an overall net positive of higher Co2 levels. But of course if you consider a small element like Co2 to be responsible for all the supposedly bad stuff you will find the models to support that. You will ignore counter factual data and even erase data from the record (NOAH) or simply manipulate data and put full trust in the models even if they are not supported by the data or only use data from the source that agrees with the model. Plus, give a Nobel price to the guy with the worst climate model, the furthest away from observations to hammer down the opposition. It's ironic that the only models that seem to agree w actual recorded data are the Russians and the Chinese. Coincidence?

    And to get back to Co2 and the greenhouse effect: that is a constant and has bandwidth limits. Even if you ignore all the positives of higher Co2 levels (crop yields, plant growth), all the Co2 in the air on a base level already has done its job in the initial greenhouse effect which is steady .Putting more in leads to Co2 saturation rather quickly and can no longer force energy through its linkage w H2o (water vapour) to raise temperature in the atmosphere. Again, the net benefit outweighs the stated (unproven) negatives. It is clear that the oceans release more Co2 (and water vapour) with higher temperatures. That's just pure physics. The obscene focus on Co2 as the 'smoking gun' of temperature is such an extraordinary claim it has to be substantiated by extraordinary evidence and guess what? The evidence is not even ordinary and is ALL related to a proposed unproven high sensitivity level of temperature to Co2. Some other percentages (like (energy) in and outputs, absorbtion and emitting levels are also doubtful or at least questionable.

    The fact remains that the stated certainty of current (western) climate models can be rejected out of hand as they are not supported by the data underpinning it, especially the role of Co2 in temperature.Furthermore, they know the uncertainties, hence their insistance and belligerence. Theirs are politically motivated (IPCC etc) and religiously adhered to. It is also painful to see the biggest financial institutions, NGOs, asset management companies using this (via the WEF, WHO etc) in ESG rules to empower them and cut out the small players. It's a power grab and affects all western countries. It is no longer a conspiracy theory, they are bragging about it and seem very proud to see things going their way. We will all suffer the consequences..



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,787 ✭✭✭antoinolachtnai


    You have completely reversed your (ridiculous) starting position where you proposed ‘just paying a couple of conventional plant the system marginal price’ and have accepted that fossil generators always charge far more than just the system marginal price.



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,110 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    All of which have nothing to do with the post I replied to and which you jumped in to defend.

    @[Deleted User] replied to a post that said we were putting our eggs in one basket when it comes to energy generation with "There is nobody, anywhere, proposing a grid of 1-2 sources" and then proposed exactly that with wind and solar.

    In fact the only difference I see with your proposals is the inclusion of a begging bowl with that 2 egg basket and the hope that there is excess energy available when we need it. Difficult to see how that could be any way looked on as an energy security plan.



  • Registered Users Posts: 596 ✭✭✭deholleboom


    I have just reread Ben Goldacre's book 'Bad Pharma' in which he investigates certain stated base 'truths' by Pharma companies about the effectiveness of certain products. Pinpointing specific drugs and trying to go back to their roots. The interesting thing here is that most of the literature linked to certain studies perpetuate certain falsehoods. It goes like this: a paper (study) is written that clearly shows the benefit of a certain drug. That study then sets the base for other papers who use it as a reference. Then other papers later refer to those references until you get a forrest of references in which one might get to the conclusion that it is based on some form of consensus and truth. But nobody ever goes back to the original paper to see if THAT contains falsehoods. He states several cases in which pharmaceutical companies had to take certain drug off the market, some which actually made the medical condition the drug was supposed to treat worse. This is now a well known phenomena.

    I couldn't help but think about the 1000s of studies linking back to base Climate studies in which the same thing is happening. It's a form of information white washing (like money laundering). Given the huge funding of Climate and overall green energy related studies the sheer amount of material makes one (once again) think that the science is settled. Given the complexities involved in the Climate issue how the hell CAN we say anything for certain, especially about a causal relationship between only one (small) element (Co2) and temperature? It does not make sense. We have seen how wrong the models were and are and we should remain skeptical especially these days when the media amplifies the panic to such a degree that even scientists working in the field (and in the IPCC) are starting to push back. And there he was again on RTE, our favourite court jester, George Lee. The man is such an imbecile. And that is the state broadcaster. The UK (BBC) is not much better. They have 'journalists' working on Climate Change. What are they reporting? Everything is getting worse. What a surprise! Day in day out. Climate panic season has started again and maybe it never ends. But, like Covid and now Ukraine, there is a limit to which you can scare people..especially if everything is one sided. The people start to lose trust in the story and the institutions backing it. Sad really, and now people are reluctant even to get the Polio or Measles vaccine. That is also the result of all this..



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,559 ✭✭✭✭machiavellianme


    What are you blabbering on about? I've reversed nothing. You made a stupid assumption that no one would invest in a gas plant based on the system marginal price and I corrected you. OCGTs have always been built against the cost of best new entrant. They typically set the price. CCGTs make their profits based on being more efficient than an OCGT then keeping the difference between their production cost vs the imbalance settlement price as profits (on simple pricing). That has been the basis of development since deregulation. It was simpler in the old SEM than the current one but the fundamentals are similar.

    I have no clue what your statement "that fossil generators always charge far more than just the system marginal price" is about? I never said that, because it's not true. They submit bids and offers for Inc's and Dec's which contribute to set the prices in the electricity market.

    If you are going to contribute, I'd suggest reading the Trading and Settlement code first rather than posting random incorrect statements.

    Post edited by machiavellianme on


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,787 ✭✭✭antoinolachtnai


    The phrase in quotes is exactly what you said and I am happy you say you no longer stand by it. You now accept that no generator can establish itself and operate on the basis of being paid the system marginal price. Perhaps it was a miscommunication on your part?

    The T&SC used to be my favored bed time reading.

    Wholesale energy is priced in the ex ante wholesale auctions, not through inc’s and dec’s in balancing. The balancing price contributes to wholesale prices in a literal sense but only to such a tiny extent that it hardly matters. Still I have no idea what you are trying to prove with this assertion of yours.



  • Advertisement
  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    @DaCor replied to a post that said we were putting our eggs in one basket when it comes to energy generation with "There is nobody, anywhere, proposing a grid of 1-2 sources" and then proposed exactly that with wind and solar

    Still stuck in that strawman loop I see

    Oh well



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,559 ✭✭✭✭machiavellianme


    The phrase in quotes is not what I said. If I did, I can't find it.

    Volume wise, the Day ahead dominates with about 90%, then intraday but the bids and offers submitted by generators are more influenced by the 5% volume in the balancing market suggests. I've no idea how they determine them but presumably it factors in risks of extreme price volatility. For starters, lots of the generators appear to be pricing themselves just a couple of cent shy of the Reliability strike price. If the imbalance pricing wasn't important and not a factor in the overall wholesale price formation, why doesn't SEMO just set it to the backup price (which is the day ahead price)?



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,384 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    ...deniers are just fcuking weird!



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,559 ✭✭✭✭machiavellianme


    Deniers of what exactly?

    Denying that the green's are destroying this country (per the thread title)?

    Denying that our electricity costs would be substantially cheaper if still vertically integrated, centrally planned and not lining the pockets of select enterprises (especially RES) under the guise of "competition"?

    Or just denying that you haven't made a sensible post? 😉



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,384 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    ...you know exactly what i mean....

    ...again, how exactly are the greens destroying the country? the greens have only played a minor role in forming governments, this means theyve played minor roles in our current outcomes, the two big boyos have been ruling the roast, since the year dot, you can be damn sure theyve played much bigger parts in our current outcomes!

    ...yes the greens are partly to blame, but.....

    ...we re all feeling it from the widescale privatization of our energy markets, its been well known, particularly within the fossil fuel industries themselves, and for decades, but what did we do, ah shur the market knows best....me bollcoks!

    ...again, yes the greens have fallen to this bullsh1t also, but has it been entirely their fault....i think not!



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,787 ✭✭✭antoinolachtnai


    It is extremely unlikely that bids in the day ahead market are influenced by the outcome of the balancing market at least with today’s physics and technology. The ex ante bids are made long before the balancing prices are determined. No one is saying that the imbalance price is unimportant. It is an important signal to suppliers and generators that they are ‘balance responsible’. It just isn’t a significant determinant of wholesale prices. If SEM used the backup price all the time then nobody would balance in the ex ante, there would be no trade at all intraday (no point) and balancing costs would go flying up with no way to recoup them

    Below is where I think you used that phrase




  • Registered Users Posts: 15,110 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Still resorting to this strawman and mysterious loop of bluster every time it is pointed out to you how silly one of your posts are I see..

    Oh well



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,559 ✭✭✭✭machiavellianme


    You think I used the phrase? Then you link to a post where I clearly didn't use the phrase. You clearly misread and misquoted me.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,787 ✭✭✭antoinolachtnai


    ‘I fail to see how that's cheaper than just paying a couple of conventional plant the system marginal price for just the energy that actually generated/used?’

    Was that not you?



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 12,559 ✭✭✭✭machiavellianme


    How exactly is that the same thing as "that fossil generators always charge far more than just the system marginal price" which is what you claimed that I said? Two very different statements and mine has no claims about generators charging anything (besides how can they charge more than the system price - it doesn't even make sense?). Not just that but you doubled down when challenged by stating "The phrase in quotes is exactly what you said", when I clearly didn't.



Advertisement