Potential Drought conditions?

I see neighbors hosing their driveways, family members running taps without reason, am I the only one who thinks water charges were a good idea

I have the paddling pool out for the kids. Let them enjoy it while they can. More than likely it'll be a washout when they are on holidays.

Agree.

Though I think the problem in Ireland is that even at the rainiest of times the country's water supply can be on a knife edge. It usually doesn't take much for the country's supply to come under pressure.

But you'd still think we could take another three or four weeks of nice weather before we have to start to worry...

Yes. Look at electricity smart plans and tell us water charges wouldnt have gone the same way.

We live in Ireland. It will be raining again soon. It would be very, very rare that we run out of water in Ireland.

Actually not rare .... never.

But no shortage of people saying the sky is falling with a few sunny days.

Yeah it's most likely going to be "what a great 2 week spell that was" and then "I can't believe this is what Summer is like in Ireland" is back and "I'm definitely booking a flight to.....to escape this s@it. "

To actually answer the threads question - for my own local Met E station (Dublin Airport). Met Eireann definitions of climatological droughts:

 ''An absolute drought is a period of 15 or more consecutive days with less than 0.2 mm on each.''

''A partial drought is a period of at least 29 consecutive days with a rainfall total averaging less than 0.2 mm of rain per day.''

The last day 0.2mm was reached was the 14th of May (0.2mm recorded). I wonder is it strictly less than or is it less than or equal to 0.2mm? If 0.2mm is OK then we go back to the 11th.

15 days ago to the 14th anyway. No real rain in sight for 5+ days to come if not more. So I imagine Met Eireann will be chiming in shortly to confirm an absolute drought there and maybe elsewhere.

Don't think it really matters if it rained a lot in September or March according to those definitions, has no impact to what a meteorological drought is anyway. We've had some wet months alright but December, January and February were not wet months in much of the East. February was incredibly dry. Driest in Dunsany (Meath) and Phoenix (Dublin) since 1965. What March probably did was save the farmers for now as soils are still workable and growth not too restricted.

Dublin (both DA and PP) have already had full partial droughts this year.

Agricultural drought is something else. Soil moisture deficit above 75mm for that. Not there yet. And today I learned of hydrological drought which is what impacts water levels/reservoirs and I've no idea where we stand there, assume it's also fine at this stage.

I thought the Winter was notable for its dry weather, indeed February exceptionally so. Granted March was a deluge for all. A drought looks odds on by early next week at least a technical one

You do know it is possible to have high pressure over Spain and Ireland at the same time. I would think our highest temperature of the summer will be in July and August. There’s bound to be more high pressure episodes and/or plumes between now and September. Fairly certain this won’t be a 2015 or 2016 train wreck.

Amazing out again this morning. I certainly can't recall a dry warm period like this in May for a long time.

I remember the start of the year and people wetting themselves with excitement because it was cold for a few days. This to me is more extreme than that. No rainfall of any consequence where I am for around 3 weeks now if not longer. Long may it last.

I’m lucky enough to be off this week and waking up knowing it’ll be fine is fabtastic. Great for doing outdoorsy stuff but you have to get finished by the afternoon here because it just gets too warm. Quite an extreme thought. 10 days ago it was dull here in Clare with occasional mist and temps getting up to around 15 if you were lucky. It would be lovely to have a gradual build up of heat over a few weeks so you could acclimatise but it’s Ireland so someone switches on the fine weather abd tempd soar within a few days. Not complaining right now though as I can have my breakfast outside and there’s a relatively cool breeze in the shade but it’s nice!

The last day in Sligo we had continuous rain for 5 to 6 hours was Saturday May 20th. Quite the soaking. 10mm of heavy misty drizzle. Nothing since then so 11 days dry will soon become 20.

Phoenix Park and Casement have topped 20º on two or three occasions I think. DA is always a tad cooler.

Not that unusual for the airport. It took until 9th June last year and that’s with a warm spring!

Absolute is actual total <0.2mm.

Partial is an average of <0.2mm over a longer period. So there could be the odd day greater than 0.2mm but if the whole period averages under that then it's a partial drought, if it were absolute it would be over if it goes over that mark.

Looking to see when we get next rain and June 7th a shower. June 10th maybe some light rain. So in general the next 10 days dry.

This really is amazing at this stage. This is a lot more unexpected and rare for us compared to the "cold snap" we had earlier on this year.

Now 3 weeks without a drop of rain in NE Kildare.

Long may it last. Its great. Shocked i havent heard calls for a hose ban yet. LOL.

Grass is getting very yellow here now. I'd say by this time next week we'll be into serious drought conditions...with growth already restricted

Electricity still has to be paid for, peak time or not. My late father would have more of a problem with my sisters if they left the immersion on or had lights on in a room they weren't using, than if they came home pregnant. Taps running needlessly weren't a problem.

Grass feeling a bit of the stress on South facing stretches now here in Sligo

Will be interesting to see these 2 pictures 1 week from now.

It’s still early days but what’s different about this year compared to last year is how extensive the drought “could” be across Ireland with the current SMD and forecasted precipitation over the next while. Below is last years summer rainfall , there were large regional differences and SMD.

Last June rainfall was above average in most places but below average in the East. Dublin airport 65% of normal with 43.6mm while Newport Mayo had 148mm.

July had below average rainfall everywhere but Finner and Malin head had in excess of 80% the LTA. They both recorded 22 rain days while Oak park Carlow had 6. Shannon had the lowest monthly total with 20.77mm.

August once again below average rainfall everywhere but Newport Mayo recorded 104.1mm 79% of its LTA while Roche’s point recorded 14mm only 14% of its LTA. Knock and Malin head recorded 19 rain days.

I wasn’t in Ireland during August last year but I don’t remember seeing any dead/yellow grass in June or July up here. Now I’m noticing some already.

The SMD are very close across the country in comparison to last year.

Soil moisture deficits (SMDs) across all soil types currently range from 35 to 45mm over northern parts of the country and 45 to 60mm elsewhere. All soils are trafficable with some restriction to growth. With dry, warm and largely sunny conditions over the coming week, SMDs will generally increase by 15 to 20mm, likely ranging from 50 to 70mm, generally, and potentially over 70mm in the parts of the southeast. Growth will thus become increasingly restricted and ground conditions will become hard and dusty.

The ecm precipitation chart has zero/negligible rainfall over the next 10 days. If that transpires we’ll be hearing a lot more about it.