What does the future hold for Donald Trump? - threadbans in OP

briany · 12-06-2023 8:17pm

In the news - people who Trump would never allow into Mar a Lago are showing their support for Trump outside Mar a Lago.

Overheal · 12-06-2023 8:40pm

Republican media has done the look-over-there key-jingle about a Chinese spy base in Cuba.

They're really trying to make it out like 'really, this base they've had since at least the trump administration, and upgraded it during trumps administration somehow, it's all Joe Biden's fault, more on the Hannity program tonight!'

https://www.mediaite.com/politics/repubclian-congressman-slams-white-house-for-blaming-the-trump-administration-over-chinese-spy-base-that-was-upgraded-during-trumps-watch/

12-06-2023 9:08pm

Just been listening to Alan Dershowitz' opinion on this case. He believes that it's likely Trump will be convicted, but less likely to actually face jail time. I didn't know that according to the US Constitution, someone could run for president and even become president whilst in jail, even after being convicted of a federal crime.

Dershowitz even voted against Trump twice, but argues that the Democrats are making a mistake by uniquely going after the frontrunner in an election race against the incumbent.

I agree with him.

If the shoe was on the other foot and the Democratic frontrunner was targeted by a Republican establishment, we can all see how wrong that would be.

It's the kind of thing we'd see in Russia or China.

odyssey06 · 12-06-2023 9:19pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120706841#Comment_120706841

So the authorities should ignore Trump committing these offences... even though he is actually guilty of them... because not ignoring then is something something Russian or Chinese.

Even though EU countries have brought charges against former Presidents or PMs. But nobody says... its the kinda thing we would see in France. Even thouse who pretend to be neutral "objective" commentators. Strange that.

So it is absolute nonsense to suggest that to ignore actual offences is somehow a hallmark of Russia or China.

And its not "the Democrats"... it is the legal authorities of the US carrying out their duties. You dont get a free pass because you are an ex President or a candidate. What would be "American" about that... nothing.

Could you give us a list of offences Trump should be exempt from and above the law? Or for that matter what offences does a Presidential candidate get to commit before prosecuting them becomes "American" again?

The moral bankruptcy of this argument is obvious.

Overheal · 12-06-2023 9:20pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120706841#Comment_120706841

If the shoe was on the other foot and the Democratic frontrunner was targeted by a Republican establishment, we can all see how wrong that would be.

Like it did with the Clintons, and Obama? And now the Bidens? It's like you forgot Impeachment One was about The Republican Establishment trying to rope the head of Ukraine into helping them target the Democratic frontrunner, Joe Biden, with a load of bullshit conspiracy theories.

As has been said repeatedly: bring it on, if there are crimes, bring them forward, prove them, prosecute them. There are active investigations into the Bidens. And?

A trumper in more bling than I could count in Miami told CNN, "you can indict a ham sandwich!" So that begs the question, why so many investigations through Durham, they hand selected John Huber too, and not an indicted ham sandwich in sight, I have to say.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-investigation-idUSKBN1Z905V

I'm not sure on what basis you say he will face no jailtime.

https://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/watch/in-2016-trump-promised-to-enforce-laws-on-classified-material-146267205966

If he is convicted, he's 'Toast' period, according to his own personal attorney general (Republican Establishment, nuking your Democrat establishment logic)

https://www.mediaite.com/news/trumps-former-ag-bill-barr-lowers-the-boom-in-stunning-analysis-on-fox-news-sunday-if-even-half-of-it-is-true-he-is-toast/

Ahwell · 12-06-2023 9:20pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120706841#Comment_120706841

These charges are being brought by the DOJ not The Democratic Party. The only person to blame here is Donald Trump. Anything else is just disingenuous partisan bullshit.

Black Swan · 12-06-2023 9:21pm

“Trump being Trump.”

Often heard this excuse from Trump apologists since 2015. Perhaps before, too, from The Apprentice show?

This cliche reminds me of when Ronald Reagan was caught going against the wishes of Congress (e.g., Iran-Contra Affair). Reagan would mumble: “There I go again,” as if this excuse was OK from your aging grandfather for some silly trifle inappropriate behavior that you would all laugh about afterwards.

The 37 count indictment documents case filed by Smith caused me to pause. Why would Trump fight so hard for months to keep, and allegedly hide, classified documents after leaving the presidency? Consequently resulting in these felony charges. When all he had to do was to simply return them to the national archives when asked; e.g., which is what Pence and Biden did when such documents were also found, returning them without all the Trump fuss.

Why? “Trump being Trump.” Some may continue to claim, although Trump’s apologists may avoid this cliche because it would be an admission of guilt.

Yet many of the pundits question what the real reason was to place himself at risk? “Trump being Trump,” does not satisfy them. Methinks that it does, if you elaborate a bit more on this simple cliche.

Trump had no education or experience to qualify him to be president before being elected. His four or more decades of experience was from private sector, not public sector. The private sector model of action is considerably different from the public sector model.

Consequently, when “Trump being Trump” occurred, it was perhaps consistent with what he could do, or get away with, as the owner and president of the private sector Trump Organization, but not the public sector executive branch president of US government.

This does not legally excuse Trump for what he has been allegedly indicted for by grand juries of his citizen peers, but it may reflect some light on his actions when he applies the private sector model mentality of doing things inappropriately to public sector?

Overheal · 12-06-2023 9:24pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120706905#Comment_120706905

And the indictment was brought by the People of Miami.

Penn · 12-06-2023 9:25pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120706891#Comment_120706891

Not just ignore Trump committing these offences, but potentially result in him being in a position to pardon himself for it so he never faces consequences, and where he could very likely do the same thing again but after some sort of executive order or other wrangling to enable him to do it again.

I mean, the authorities not prosecuting someone who broke various laws because it's politically inconvenient and allowing him to pardon himself and others, as well as change laws to protect himself from future legal troubles, coupled with him now publicly saying that because of all this if he gets back into office he'll launch investigations into Biden's family..... that's like what you'd see in Russia or China....

everlast75 · 12-06-2023 9:37pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120706841#Comment_120706841

Dershowitz pi55ed his own reputation down the drain, just like everyone else, by hitching his cart to trump.

He's a shadow of his former professional self.

Overheal · 12-06-2023 9:41pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120706907#Comment_120706907

The 37 count indictment documents case filed by Smith caused me to pause. Why would Trump fight so hard for months to keep, and allegedly hide, classified documents after leaving the presidency? Consequently resulting in these felony charges. When all he had to do was to simply return them to the national archives when asked; e.g., which is what Pence and Biden did when such documents were also found, returning them without all the Trump fuss.

Like his lieutenants all ignoring subpoenas even in the face of federal contempt charges: the sentencing for contempt is far less severe than the charges for insurrection, rebellion or treason. So Bannon not talking for example, made sense from that cynical view.

From the same view it must mean that, he is trying to cover up for something far worse by not turning back in documents. Trump was known to destroy a lot of notes etc. when he was in office (violations of the PRA, incidentally) and its possible returning them without incident would lead to them discovering, eg. this page with this watermark was found in a Saudi database, or something to that effect. The ability to proof-positive selling US intelligence to foreigners. Treason, in other terms. Would explain all the saudi slush money, but at the bare minimum, we know he wanted to do absolutely everything he could, at minimum out of spite, to frustrate the peaceful transition of power: president elect biden didn't get intel briefings, Trump tried to order massive withdrawals of US forces abroad in the last couple weeks, and then takes half a ton of govt and white house operational documents home with him, which any reasonable outside assessment I think would conclude would have directly impaired the smooth transition of government and military operations. It's not unfathomable to think Trump might have worried in that mountain of paperwork from his administration there would be yet more evidence that might have been used against him with regard to illegalities, 2020, and Jan 6. Whatever frying pan he's happy to sit in here, it's possible the fire outside is worse if he were to just hand them over the risk of them finding something that proved eg. potential insurrection conspiracy or treason charges.

Black Swan · 12-06-2023 10:06pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120706985#Comment_120706985

Perhaps what you suggest about the documents case, and alternative Trump MOs may have merit? If there is a speedy trial that occurs before the 2024 election has been held, further depth may be presented by the prosecution in trying this case in regards to the 37 charges on the indictment?

But if “Trump being Trump” occurs in this specific case, and Trump sees himself as losing, he may try to negotiate a plea deal to a lesser offense and sentence as he has done times before as private sector president of Trump Organization (e.g., although civil and not criminal, like Trump did by paying a $25 million settlement for alleged fraud by the failed Trump University).

More importantly, who has the popcorn concession for watching the Miami trial?

banie01 · 12-06-2023 10:07pm

In addition to those 2 instances of Trump sharing classified documents with people without security clearance. Footage has resurfaced of Kid Rock talking about how good 'ol boy Donnie showed him "secret maps".

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-kid-rock-video-maps-b2355972.html

Overheal · 12-06-2023 10:24pm

If you can't beat them, defund them

https://www.mediaite.com/tv/marjorie-taylor-greene-is-trying-to-defund-trump-prosecutors-we-cannot-allow-the-government-to-be-weaponized/

Overheal · 12-06-2023 10:30pm

John Brennan: some of the documents Trump had were marked as coming from embedded human sources

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ll7fL1Vt694

Faugheen · 13-06-2023 12:01am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120703603#Comment_120703603

Yes, he does.

The middle ground voters in a small number of swing states are the ones who will win the election for either side. Why do you think each party spends the vast majority of their campaigns in those states?

I'm really sorry, but if you genuinely believe Trump doesn't have to attract middle-ground voters then you haven't the slightest breeze what you are talking about. Every President has had to attract the middle ground voters.

Here's the comparisons of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconson from 2016 and 2020.

In 2016, the splits in the respective states among Independent voters was as follows:

2016 in MI (29% of all voters):

Trump 52%-36% Clinton

So, Trump picked up around 15% of his vote through the Independent voters. He won in Michigan by 0.2%

2020 in MI (23% of all voters)

Biden 51-45 Trump

So the number of Independent voters fell, but so did Trump's vote share. He went from getting circa 15% in 2016 to approx 10% in 2020. He lost Michigan in 2020 by 2.8%. If Trump runs up a similar number to what he did in 2016, he would have won by the most slender margins.

2016 in PA (20% of all voters)

Trump 48-41 Clinton

So again just under 10% of Trump's vote coming from indies, compared to 8% of Clinton's total vote. Trump won the state by 0.7% overall.

2020 in PA (19% of all voters)

Biden 52-44 Trump

So Biden secures just under 9.88 of his total vote through indies, compared to 8.36% for Trump, representing a gap of 1.52%. Biden won the state by 1.2%

2016 in WI (30% of all voters)

Trump 50-40 Clinton.

Trump gets 15% of the total vote from Indies compared to 12% for Clinton. Trump wins the state by 0.8%

2020 in WI (23% of all voters)

Biden 54-42 Trump

So Biden wins 12.54% of his total vote from Indies, whereas Trump secures 9.66%. Biden's winning margin? 0.6%.

---

Now if that isn't enough for you, let's go to Georgia which provided arguably the biggest surprises of the 2020 election, despite being well flagged that it could flip to the Democrats.

2016 in GA (30% of all voters)

Trump 52-41 Clinton

So Trump gets 15.6 percent of the vote compared to Clinton's 12.3. Trump won the state by 5.1 percent.

Aha! The theory is now bollocks, because Trump didn't need the Independent voters to win in Georgia in 2016 (not neccesarily true because if you reverse the percentage vote from indies then Clinton would win).

However, that didn't happen, so that's where 2020 comes into play:

2020 in GA (23% of all voters)

Biden 53-44 Trump

So Biden gets 12.19% of the vote from Independents, comapred to 10.12% from Trump. Biden won the state by 0.3%.

That represents a swing of 5.4%. And I would not that the percentage share of the vote for Biden actually went down slightly from Clinton at 0.11%, however Trump's fell from 15.6 percent to just 10.12% - a difference of 5.48%

---

That's why independent voters matter. And that's why Trump hasn't a chance in hell of winning the 2024 election. Republican/Democrat voters do not decide anything. It is independent voters in swing states and that is, and always will be, the end of it.

Also, voters in general won't be complacent. They learned that lesson very harshly in 2016. Trumps candidates in close contests during the midterms all lost and it was purely because he had his paws all over them.

Not to mention, abortion and other civil rights issues will play a big part in this election. Voters in deep red states are rejecting the stripping down of Roe, and whether Republicans like it or not it will harm them among independent voters no matter who the candidate is. The fact the very man that allowed this to happen is in the contest makes it an even bigger sticking point.

Overheal · 13-06-2023 12:08am

Nothing to worry about here, not enabling the vigilantes and giving them a target to aim at or anything /s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=itU8G7HBixc

https://www.mediaite.com/politics/we-will-vote-on-a-bill-to-make-it-easier-to-kill-people-mcgovern-blasts-republican-legislation-headed-to-the-floor/

https://www.mediaite.com/politics/marjorie-taylor-greene-deems-pride-flag-a-symbol-of-aggression-slams-evil-perverted-agenda/

Overheal · 13-06-2023 1:20am

Fmr Trump lawyers react to indictment (look at that impressive beard):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GS8i23K8TjQ

everlast75 · 13-06-2023 9:33am

Just wondering... If the prosecution is a nonsense, then why can't trump get a lawyer to represent him?

Possible reasons;

1) he never pays them

2) he tries to get them to commit illegal acts

3) he lies to them which makes them look foolish

4) he did exactly what he is accused of doing

5) all of the above

flanna01 · 13-06-2023 9:55am

If I was Donnie, and took a quiet moment to read and digest the charges, I would:

1) Have a nervous bowel reaction

2) Realise my goose is cooked here...

3) Commit to employing every delaying tactic in the book, and no legal representation is a good one... (to begin with)

4) Rally the rednecks into a frenzy, keep pushing them court dates out further.

5) Pray to the almighty orange sprayed fake gold ingot bar in the sky, beg to be elected President again.

6) Pardon myself from all past and future indiscretions, including showing Bob the gardener the nuclear blueprints.

7) Then all settle all scores with those that had the audacity to question the orange one.

8) Avoid the CIA bullet whilst doing the above.

Fathom · 13-06-2023 10:19am

Rachel Maddow suggests that (Art of a Deal) Trump may attempt a plea deal to drop out of 2024 in exchange for no jail time if convicted In Miami.

Maddow noted that Vice President Spiro Agnew had a similar plea deal negotiated with prosecutors, resigning office to avoid likely prison time for alleged crimes associated with WaterGate.

Somewhat similar to Trump, Agnew proclaimed that he would never drop out (or resign), even if indicted on several criminal counts (about 40 for Agnew; now 34 and 37 for Trump). But 11 days after his no deal proclamation, Agnew took the deal and resigned.

Agnew’s fans were very upset, like you would expect from Trump’s fans if he makes a deal too. But Agnew retired to his mansion, and his fans faded away in time.

Trump sees himself as the ultimate deal maker, like his book. And he has made several deals in the past years to reduce his risks from getting worse.

Penn · 13-06-2023 10:28am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120708429#Comment_120708429

Thing is, Spiro Agnew's case was a federal charge of tax evasion. Can the DoJ allow Trump to plea out of the charges he's facing, considering the seriousness of them? That would potentially set a legal precedent they likely don't want to set.

I would say at best they might let him plea down to House Arrest and confine him to a non-public property (ie. a private property, not Mar-A-Lago where there's potential anyone could pay to be there). But I don't know if they could just let Trump become a private citizen again as part of a plea deal.

Flaneur OBrien · 13-06-2023 10:32am

Also, will they (could they?!) ban him from social media and interviews? Because even if he makes a plea deal, he’ll do an interview saying how his hands were tied, they were going to come after his children or some bullshit. And the anger will rise and rise.

Look at his behaviour after the E. Jean Carroll case. The man will never, ever admit that he isn’t anything but “perfect” publicly.

Fathom · 13-06-2023 10:47am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120708470#Comment_120708470

Pleading guilty to the income tax evasion charges, and no other alleged crimes (bribery, extortion, etc) was a part of the plea deal with Agnew, including resignation from VP, and assuming his “convicted/emeritus” status mansion retirement.

Edit: Also 3 years of supervised probation, whilst living in his mansion.

Patrick2010 · 13-06-2023 10:49am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120707791#Comment_120707791

This is a great watch, thanks for posting. Have to say I doubt Parlatore is a former Trump lawyer, he seems to keep looking for technicalities Trump can exploit to get off. Trump actually asking if they can get rid of documents so they can say they don't have them is mad stuff! Paralatore tries to portray Trump as some kind of innocent to the legal world just asking questions of his lawyer!

Patrick2010 · 13-06-2023 11:00am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120707255#Comment_120707255

Another good watch. Some of the documents Trump had were so sensitive they weren't mentioned in the indictment. Files containing details of foreign agents working on behalf of the US now putting their lives in danger. Information supplied to the US by friendly governments on the assumption they would be kept strictly confidential. Meanwhile all this info is kept in Mar A lago with no security, in ballrooms, bedrooms and bathrooms. We know at least 2 foreign spies had access to Mar A lago , not mention Trump mentioning in a recent interview that Nixon got 18 million for his documents. Maybe 18 million in todays money corresponds to the 2 billion Jared got from the Saudis?.

If Trump was working as a Soviet agent hes done a great job, sowing division in America and distrust in elections. Cosying up to Putin , taking secret documents which compromises Americas security as they can't know who has access now.

looksee · 13-06-2023 11:12am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120708622#Comment_120708622

Just out of interest, where has the sensitivity of these documents been reported?

Patrick2010 · 13-06-2023 11:18am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120708684#Comment_120708684

Did you watch the video?

Penn · 13-06-2023 11:31am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120708565#Comment_120708565

I agree, but my point is that the seriousness of the charges that Trump is facing, particularly when it comes to the Espionage Act, I'm not sure if the DoJ would or could just allow him to plea to lesser charges and drop the charges relating to the Espionage Act. That would set a precedent they may not want to set.

I think they may allow him to plea in a deal relating to what punishment he faces, but I don't know if they could actually drop those particular charges.

everlast75 · 13-06-2023 11:52am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120708429#Comment_120708429

Did she suggest that the DoJ should accept?

Because if so, I think she is off her ****ing rocker.

He gave two big* fingers to the rule of law in the U.S. and the idea that he should be so kind as to step down for a race he won't win to avoid culpability, is nonsense.

He should be made an example of for many reasons, one of which being heaven knows the next egomaniac narcissist that gets his clammy paws on the White House might not be a painfully thick as 45, and the precedent needs to be there.

*May not be big

What does the future hold for Donald Trump? - threadbans in OP

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