Ireland Team Talk XII: Farrell's First Fifteen

Former Former Former · 13-06-2023 5:46pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120710707#Comment_120710707

This is exactly it. Some guys make the step up, others do not.

This is the difference between provincial rugby and test rugby.

Must love hardship · 13-06-2023 5:56pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120710387#Comment_120710387

Casey, treadwell, stockdale and Earls.

Jump_In_Jack · 13-06-2023 6:01pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120710618#Comment_120710618

I don’t really think those stats mean much, a hard carry for 1m can be just as important as a free run for 20m.

The main thing is he was good against the Māori and on the strength of that he made the bench for the test matches.

He delivered for Ireland on that tour and I think Farrell rewards that.

AbusesToilets · 13-06-2023 6:03pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120710708#Comment_120710708

It should also be pointed out, there's a big difference between just shuffling the ball along and being able to run and draw and pass.

13-06-2023 6:12pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120710708#Comment_120710708

James Ryan, for Leinster this season, passed the ball 48 times in 15 games (897 mins), Joe McCarthy 15 times in 8 games (272 mins), while Kleyn passed 66 times in 23 games (1,442 mins).

Small sample size for McCarthy, but essentially Joe McCarthy passes the ball every 18 mins or so, (18.1), James Ryan every 19 mins (18.7), and Jean Kleyn every 22 mins (21.8).

I don't think it tells you a huge amount, but essentially as expected Kleyn does pass the ball less.

ulsteru20s · 13-06-2023 6:12pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120710834#Comment_120710834

I just want to know what kind of volume of passes they actually go through.

The only lock that has ever stood out for me in a game as a passer is Moloney.

ulsteru20s · 13-06-2023 6:16pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120710866#Comment_120710866

What’s Moloney’s out of interest? Oh also, does Ryan pass more or less for Ireland?

None of those numbers seem high enough or different enough to be a selection criteria.

13-06-2023 6:25pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120710894#Comment_120710894

Yeah, Molony passed 103 times across 23 games (1,443 minutes) - so on the same metric he passes once every 14 minutes.

Edit: Sorry missed your Ryan question - his numbers are broadly similar - apart from in 2022 when he seemed to pass considerably less (possibly reflective of quality of opposition).

This year: 20 passes across 400 mins, one pass every 20 mins. In 2021, 21 passes in 534 mins - one pass per 25.4 mins, in 2021: 25 passes in 493 mins = one pass per 19.7 mins.

13-06-2023 6:27pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120710831#Comment_120710831

Yeah, generally I feel on a per game basis metres per carry doesn't tell you much, because it doesn't reflect the match conditions, weather, opposition etc.

Over the course of a season though, you can definitely draw conclusions from it. Treadwell is a below par carrier whatever way you look at it.

ulsteru20s · 13-06-2023 6:32pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120710936#Comment_120710936

Interesting. I thought he passed more from the games i saw.

Can you compare ireland ryan to leinster ryan?

My feeling is that he would pass less for ireland but not sure. Could be totally wrong on that.

Edit: saw your edit. Broadly the same.

13-06-2023 6:38pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120710979#Comment_120710979

Sorry, I missed the second question but went back and edited on the Ryan stats for Leinster v Ireland. He passes with a little more frequency for Leinster - over the past 3 seasons for Leinster he's passed the ball 121 times across 34 games, 2,291 mins - so essentially one pass every 19 (18.9) mins.

For Ireland over the past 3 seasons it's 66 passes across 20 games, 1,427 mins - so one pass every 22 mins (21.6) mins.

Podge_irl · 13-06-2023 6:39pm

Player not selected under the entire 4 year reign of current coach was not selected again shocker.

This might be a mistake, might not. If it is it will be a marginal one. But the coach who has brought us to our greatest ever 12 month period doesn't care about it.

ulsteru20s · 13-06-2023 6:40pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120711010#Comment_120711010

Thanks! Very interesting.

leakyboots · 13-06-2023 7:18pm

Interesting use of language there FTD... there's 0.2 in the difference of how Ryan often passes for Leinster v Ireland and how Kleyn passes for Munster v other challengers for an Ireland spot.

Yet you compare the difference in how Ryan passes as "a little more frequency" whereas "as expected Kleyn does pass the ball less". 'Tis all in the tellin' I guess! 🤣

(That aside, fair play for taking the time to look up those stats. And I agree, I don't think it tells us a huge amount ultimately. I think Kleyn's handling has improved, it couldn't have been a whole lot worse to a couple of seasons ago where he was like Doris constantly knocking it on)

sprucemoose · 13-06-2023 7:21pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120711013#Comment_120711013

it isnt as simple as just saying 'he wasnt picked for the last while so why would he be picked now' thought imo - kleyn had not been playing at as consistently high a level prior to this season (much as i thought he was someone who got an unfair amount of grief at times) and he was one of the best players in the URC winning squad, while keeping one of the best players in the world in his position on the bench in the final (albeit he was coming back from injury).

does that mean he should automatically get into the squad? - of course not

does it mean that people can question why other players who havent shown as much domestic form, or arent generally involved in the bigger (european) games, are picked instead? - absolutely, very much a valid question(s). on the other hand anyone calling for AF to be sacked or whatever is being delusional

13-06-2023 7:26pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120711171#Comment_120711171

Yeah, the reasoning for my language was that in 2 of 3 seasons for Ireland (this year and 2021) his pass frequency level was directly comparable - one pass every 19.7 mins in 2021, one pass every 20 mins in 2023. 2022 is an outlier which skews the numbers higher.

Definitely I feel Kleyn is handling the ball with more frequency, but don't have the stats to show the trend from further back than this season, and can't see a quick way to pull them together.

Podge_irl · 13-06-2023 7:28pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120711181#Comment_120711181

Sure, nothing is ever that simple (for what its worth I don't recall given him or Schmidt grief over the selection for the 2019 squad).

The squad was largely set around 6N time when Munster were still worrying about qualifying for Europe, never mind winning the URC. Its just bad timing and a late run of form for a player who has (had depending on your point of view) deficiencies in his game that make him unappealing to the current coach. I'm absolutely sure Farrell doesn't care he was called up for the SA squad and knew it was a possibility.

theVersatile · 13-06-2023 7:31pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120711010#Comment_120711010

Considering I love having a winge about low quality posting, I think it's only fair that I applaud the good stuff.

Great work, FTD.

Neil3030 · 13-06-2023 7:45pm

The passes per minute is an interesting stat.

Seems to simplify down to not far off 4 passes a game.

I wonder how many of those are part of a set move, or when the 9 is buried in a ruck and they need a pass off the base..

letsbefair · 13-06-2023 7:57pm

Don't forget the level of opposition. Ryan doesn't play the easy games

ulsteru20s · 13-06-2023 7:59pm

I think lock passing is a media thing.

Ryan is an animal at the offensive breakdown, a good heavy carrier and a fantastic lineout guy.

He could follow an obscure religion where he isn’t ever allowed to pass and he would still play for ireland.

aloooof · 13-06-2023 11:10pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120711291#Comment_120711291

The rugby nerd in me would love to see the distributions of pass per phase number, and number of pass within a phase, but you're never going to get that detail freely available, understandably enough. Would be a ballache to put together.

aloooof · 13-06-2023 11:59pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120710866#Comment_120710866

Curious if you also have Treadwell, and also metre and carry stats for each of the 4, FTD?

Wegians89 · 14-06-2023 7:21am

I personally wouldn’t be shocked if McCarthy overtakes Henderson over the next couple of months. I know that might sound mad but any time I’ve seen McCarthy he’s had the X factor to him

14-06-2023 7:27am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120712412#Comment_120712412

No, don’t have full numbers on Treadwell - I need to re run a scrape on the Ulster data. His metres per carry stats are 23 games were 0.6 (71 carries for 40m), but don’t have the passing data.

For the other three:

James Ryan - 1.5m per carry (161m off 107 carries) for Leinster this season, he’s at 2.1m per carry for Ireland this year (98m off 46 carries).

Jean Kleyn - 1.6m per carry (296m off 183 carries)

Joe McCarthy - 3.1m per carry (103m off 33 carries).

Ross Molony - 1.1m per carry (115m off 104 carries)

and some other second rows for context:

Jason Jenkins - 1.7m per carry (167m off 96 carries)

Ryan Baird - 3.6m per carry (321m off 90 carries) - but a lot of these mins at 6.

Tadhg Beirne - 1.9m per carry (192m off 100 carries)

Fineen Wycherley - 1.4m per carry (92m off 65 carries)

RG Snyman - 1.4m per carry (26m off 18 carries)

Thomas Ahern - 4.1m per carry (53m off 13 carries)

Niall Murray - 2.8m per carry (163m off 58 carries) - not full season stats, incomplete

Josh Murphy - 1.8m per carry (139m off 79 carries) - not full season stats

Alan O’Connor - 0.6m per carry (50m off 79 carries) - not full season

Iain Henderson - 1.2m per carry (58m off 48 carries)

Sam Carter - 1.3m per carry (109m off 85 carries) - not full season.

Once again - calling out the Ulster and Connacht stats are a little bit incomplete and missing a few games at the end.

Brief_Lives · 14-06-2023 8:24am

Is there a stats website that has the numbers of HIAs?

pickarooney · 14-06-2023 9:27am

Or the number of turnovers conceded? Maybe Treadwell never gets turned over and his carrying, however lacking in impact, is at least secure?

Jump_In_Jack · 14-06-2023 9:56am

I must go back and watch the NZ tour matches over the next few weeks if I find the time, but I do remember thinking Treadwell was impressive.

Just a quick search online for player ratings and for the second Maori match he was the highest rated player at 8.5, see below:

5. Kieran Treadwell- 8.5

A huge performance from the Ulster lock. A frequent target in the lineout, and produced one crucial steal five metres from his line in the first-half. Got through a huge amount of work, and seemed all over the pitch. Wasn’t just a case of a high workrate though, as he often exhibited how strong he is in contact. Taken off before the hour mark, which bodes well for the weekend.

https://www.rugbypass.com/news/ireland-player-ratings-vs-maori-all-blacks-2/

I think it's possible that some players have the capability to flourish at test level, but for whatever reason, the systems or the dynamics within the team just don't bring out their best qualities at club level.

For example, Alan O'Connor is ever-present for Ulster, captaining and featuring in most big games, yet he has never been suggested as good enough for test level. Whereas Treadwell has glimpses of that higher calibre of player at club level, and yet doesn't get enough game time with Ulster.

If I were selecting the Ulster team this season I would have had Treadwell ahead of O'Connor and Carter all season. Maybe Ulster fans might be able to enlighten me why that wasn't the case.

ionadnapokot · 14-06-2023 10:09am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120710404#Comment_120710404

I thought Ireland might rest Sexton ahead of SA game.

Not so sure now after seeing the Tongan 35 man squad.

FORWARDS: Siegeried Fistihoi, Feao Fotuaika, David Lolohea, Paula Ngauamo, Siua Maile, Samiuela Moli, Sosefo Sakalia, Ben Tameifuna, Tau Koloamatangi, Sosefo ‘Apikotoa, Adam Coleman, Samiuela Lousi, Halaleva Fifita, Sitiveni Mafi, Vaea Fifita, Tanginoa Halaifonua, Solomone Funaki, Sione Vailanu, Lopeti Timani, Sione Havili Talitui

BACKS: Sonatane Takulua, Augustine Pulu, Manu Paea, William Havili, Otumaka Mausia, Patrick Pellegrini, Pita Ahki, Malakai Fekitoa, Afusipa Taumoepeau, George Moala, Fine Inisi, Isileli Folau, Solomone Kata, Salesi Piutau, Kuren Taumoefolau

Their first game is against Ireland on 16th Sep

1. Fotuaika

2. Moli / Maile

3. Tameifuna / Koloamatangi

4. Coleman

5. Lousi

6. Fifita

7. Talitui

8. Timani / Vailanu

9. Pulu

10. Havili / Pellegrini

11. Kata

12. Moala / Akhi

13. Fekitoa

14. Piutau

15. Folau

Jump_In_Jack · 14-06-2023 10:19am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120713120#Comment_120713120

That's some backline. I think we will have to go full strength for that match, keeping in mind we didn't believe we could lose to Japan last time, we can't afford to take Tonga for granted. It's great for the competition though, a strong Tongan team adds to the tournament.

Ireland Team Talk XII: Farrell's First Fifteen

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