What does the future hold for Donald Trump? - threadbans in OP

Just what are we supposed to learn from this?

Nothing, its a bot.

He'll never do any time. All it'll take during this trial is a single MAGA juror (which is very likely to happen in Florida) to refuse to convict and it'll be a mistrial. The whole thing will then be dragged out and out until its either forgotten about, or some Republican in office orders the DOJ to drop the charges. I'd love to be proven wrong on that but I'd have serious doubts. Judge Aileen Cannon overseeing the whole thing is another factor.

Isn't he on record admitting that he didn't have a right to have those documents? Trump may figure that he's so bang to rights on the documents charges that he may as well rile his supporters up to as high a level he can. If prosecutors have the requisite evidence to convict him, then there's enough utility for Trump to continue talking guff, even if it provides more of a case, in the hope that he can make the case as politically-fraught as possible (and boost his numbers in the primary, apparently).

I've said it before and I'll say it again, this man will not serve any jail-time.

a) As an ex-president he has to be guarded 24/7 by the secret service, jail is not a possibility under those circumstances.

b) Likewise as ex-president, for national security reasons, he won't be allowed near a prison

c) At the very worst, he will serve some sort of "house arrest".

He has a powerful bat-shiat crazy core, and has most of the Republican party bending the knee to him, I wouldn't be the slightest bit surprised to see him wriggle out of this seemingly open and shut case.

The permutations are nuts. Trump could be convicted of a federal crime and be elected president, and the terms of the house arrest would possibly prevent him from attending an inauguration in Washington DC, or he'd have to get day leave of some kind.

I think given the time that would take rather than money, wouldn't be worth it. They could instead modify one of his existing residences.

Even though I agree that his situation is so unique given his position, any kind of reasonable incarceration, whether it be in a new facility or one of his own residences, is a huge step considering what it would have taken for the case to be brought, investigated, gone through trial and being found guilty. House arrest with significant restrictions in terms of visitors, communications, amenities etc akin to what would be in a prison, would be sufficient given his age.

Hopefully the US Federal Prison Service could be less corrupt.

I don’t see a scenario where he gets to stay living at the scenes of the crime; it wouldn’t really deter anything if he was still keeping yet more hidden documents at mar a Lago or Bedminster, or Scotland, or elsewhere while on “house arrest,” continuing to schmooze with Chinese spies and Saudi princes.

Whatever type of punishment would have to include removing his access to social media of any type. He’s surely fomenting rebellion every time he goes on truth social.

the idea of any sort of incarceration of a former president blows the mind. That being said, the 4 years of his presidency was a daily exercise in the mind being blown.

He does remind me of Enoch Bourke. Like Enoch, all Trump had to do was play ball and do what he was told. However, like Enoch, he continued to refuse to do so, leading to far worse trouble than he ever needed to be in.

Now clearly the stakes are immeasurably higher with Trump, but if he refuses to play ball, the court will be left exasperated and with no other option, as with Enoch, but to throw the book at him.

Incredible really, that all he needed to do was hand over the documents and this would never have happened. Mental stuff.

Although I agree that Trump uses his pet platform to spout endless drivel designed to anger his base, it doesn't seem to be the opinion of US authorities that this is fomenting rebellion since he remains free to do so. I suppose Trump is, in a way, only doing what legions of other Americans are on social media, namely the parroting of baseless conspiracy and rage and if you do Trump on that, you'd have to a whole lot of other people. It's weird to think that out of all the possible charges currently in the pipeline against Trump, the one about sedition looks to be taking a backseat, even though we watched him take to the podium and deliberately stoke his supporters into action on January 6th, 2021, and that was only one of many times he fomented anger by using baseless conspiracy theories about the legitimacy of the election.

I don't think he would get many new voters if he were to be on the ballot, and in a fair election, even a fair electoral college election where everyone, irrespective of race, religion, socio economic status, except if you live in the middle of nowhere, had an equal opportunity to vote I don't think he would have a chance. However, as there are barriers to voting, massive lines in some cases, potential votes being discarded, potential illegal votes being counted, he has a chance, unfortunately.

There will almost certainly be issues with regards to voter suppression tactics, particularly in swing states which have a state GOP majority/governor. But it's also not an unknown or shock tactic the GOP could pull either. If the Dems focus in the run-up to the election on helping to ensure people are registered, know where to vote and plan for how long lines may be, it can have a huge impact. All eyes will also be on vote counting centres too given all the accusations thrown out by Trump/GOP last year, which I think is more likely to ensure that any attempts at potential valid votes being discounted or unvalid votes counted will be identified pretty quickly.

The thing with vote centres is that while vote counting is going on, nobody knows if their vote counting centre is going to be the one that will make a difference to the result. No one is likely to try to commit electoral fraud because, given the checking/validation processes and penalties if you're caught, you would have no idea if it was even going to matter, or if it was going to be necessary (eg. Why risk manipulating the vote to help Trump win if Trump was winning anyway, which at an individual vote counter level they may not be aware of?). The level of manipulation of votes to actually make an impact would have to be done at an organisational level to make a substantial enough difference to the result even just for that county and to bypass all the checks and balances.

It's why all of Trump's claims were so easily dismissible by election officials and the courts. There simply couldn't be the level of impact that Trump was suggesting with the claims they were making. It's also why voter suppression would be the more likely challenge for Dems to face. It's easier for them to justify without putting themselves in legal trouble and potentially stops votes at the source rather than having to try manipulate vote counts after the election.

the allegation of planting boxes is a particular gripe of his. the photo used as "proof" was taken by Trump's lacky 8 months ago