Russia - threadbanned users in OP

I think the current Ukrainian Army can only do so much.

Without Western Jets, they are fighting with one hand tied behind their backs. They might be able to land a good few jabs but a knockout blow seems unlikely.

Perhaps this is now dawning on policymakers and the Ukrainians themselves.

Expediting the delivery and training of Western fighter Jets should be the 1st priority of this war. With this, they may establish some air superiority in the conflict zones, making the job of the Army much easier.

Otherwise, its just a war of attrition, which just ends in stalemate imo.

Really going after the Russian Army leadership.

As an aside, have the GLSDB's been delivered yet? There was a lot of talk about them back in March, when it was announced that Ukraine was going to get them, but little else since.

From the videos earlier.

Yes and perhaps that it how this will develop further. Ukrainian tactics may be to make the current moves, take the losses and whatever gains until it becomes very obvious that others need to step in. And that is how this war will develop and escalate.

Presumably NATO/ Allies thinking is how to defeat Russia with slow and progressive escalation, whilst not frightening the horses and having the situation blow up to a wider destructive level.

"What is your overall impression or forecast on how things will go, looking at all the available data and reports of the offensive so far."

Looks like Ukraine did make a bit of progress on territory without committing the bulk of their armour and have now got a better fix on how the moskovytes are going to try defend the territory they have occupied. There were a couple of days when there was a spike in reported casualties of the moskovytes from the Ukrainian side followed by a drop in more recent days but a continued good level of moskovyte artillery destruction and there may be a pause in the offensive to some extent so the best way forward can be calculated. Too early to make any sort of forecast in my opinion but with more moderne weapons being sent to Ukraine looking to continue indefinitely I think its just a mater of how laong the moskovytes can hang on before they are forced to surrender, are turned to fertiliser or putin is forced out of power and someone willing to cut the moskovyte losses and negotiate their withdrawal comes into power.

Could be more Leopard 2's on the way for Ukraine

"A clear majority in the National Council wanted to send a signal to Ukraine, but also and above all to Europe. By a vote of 132 to 59, he decided to decommission 25 Leopard 2 tanks from the army. The next stage is the Council of States, where there are significantly more critical voices in the ranks of the FDP and the center party. The tank trade is not yet sealed."

I wouldn't lose faith just yet. We're still very very early into the offensive actions. Literally 6-7 days. This was never going to be a route like Kharkiv. Russia have had a literal year to set up these defenses. We've become too accustomed to watching videos of Russia throwing thousands of men and armor into the fire for centimetres of progress.

There's going to be a lot of losses on UAF side for this one. And Russia are the ones predominantly controlling the social media space. So in addition to amplifying ukranian losses they'll also, true to form, be constantly posting fakes. While Ukraine will be posting mostly nothing. So be prepared for weeks and weeks, possibly months of bad news before the light at the end of the tunnel. My own opinion is that if by say the end of August/middle of September the UAF has made minimal gains then we might have cause for concern. Until then there's nothing we can do but steel ourselves.

On the positive side we're already seeing signs that America and Europe are up to replacing the losses in armoured vehicles that UAF take. So as long as the soldiers survive the minefields and ambushes(which they seem to have so far) then the offensive will steadily eat into Russian fortifications. These lines only have to break once. The second the lines break in one single position every other defensive line north of this becomes useless. But getting to that point will be a hard slog no doubt.

In addition Russia are going to continually face degrading logistics for supplying these positions due to long range fire and partisan attacks on supply lines. To the point where they simply may not have the ammunition to hold Ukraine back. The same cannot be said of Ukraine.

Yes but perhaps not the other side of the escalation equation, but instead part of an escalation plan if needed. Or at least one scenario that NATO/ Allies are prepared to develop.

So Ukrainian army has been equipped and armoured to an extent that is known to be limited but sufficient to allow a counter offensive. Thinking could be to suck this and see what happens. If it largely succeeds, well & good. If it doesn't, then escalation with a coalition of neighbouring states. Increasing the pressure on the Russian military and leadership gradually.

Depends on whether they are inside or outside the gun housing when struck.

Another thing that has to be factored in is the depletion of Nato stocks of munitions and other equipment,at the other end of the stick you have cost of living crisis, inflation,and other conflicts threatening to kick off which will could all lead to calls from some to reduce the supports and yes we will see tweets about being in this for the long run,but elections and people could change that rethortic,

Let's hear it @SafeSurfer what have we missed

All the aid to Ukraine is western made, and sending it helps with the cost of living crisis, because more is manufactured, and this creates jobs and wages.

"Normal losses" Edit: Is this an honest translation?

How sustainable is this?

Surely there comes an inflexion point where Russia start running out of military hardware of sorts.

Granted they make have lots of older tanks and IFV but what about their missiles, helicopters, and Mobile heavy artillery, do they have unlimited stocks of this?

The old stocks are replaced with new stock. so lots of jobs. and also if it is old stock it doesn't effect the cost of living crisis much then because it is a reduction cost of maintenance and guarding the equipment, win win.