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Cost of a United Ireland and the GFA

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  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 26,890 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    I find it difficult to impossible to presuppose what electorates will consider important, but nonetheless I don't really agree. Though it depends significantly on the circumstances behind it.

    More to the point, I think a border poll during the next UK electoral cycle would lose which is undoubtedly colouring my view of whether Labour would countenance calling for one. It would be strife and distraction for no ultimate outcome.

    The GFA was a solution to a extant problem in NI that had been ongoing for years. The Irish Problem had been plaguing UK politics for decades before 1922 also. There just isn't a problem that needs solving at the moment in NI for a UK govt (I mean, there are many problems, but none that impact GB in any significant way). Not to mention Starmer is very much not Blair and doesn't given any indication whatsoever of a desire to rock the boat.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,848 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    In fairness this is fanciful.

    Partition came back to bite Britain massively in the backside. It put parliament and the British political system into turmoil and may have caused lasting damage.

    That is not over yet as Brexit has not been fully implemented and we have no clue as to whether Britain will diverge more or not from the EU or what damge coninues to accrue to it's economy and political system.

    Negotiating a path back to some sort of stability for Britain would be much much easier without the shackles of partition around their ankles.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,704 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    The actual cost of NI is not a significant amount to the UK exchequer because much of it would be chargeable to the UK whether NI was hived off to a UI or not.

    For example, the cost of defence remains, as do state pensions. The national debit remains, and the UK might try to shift some it to a UI, but that would be resisted by the Irish Gov as we have more than enough debt already.

    It might be a good diversion though to distract from other issues.



  • Registered Users Posts: 27,911 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Very good points, and the Protocol, if it works, puts to bed any lingering issues for the medium term.

    The GFA is in need of change and reform, but the problems with it are mostly internal to Northern Ireland, and neither side is wont to make concessions.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,848 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Factually wrong again, there is only two party's against reform of the GFA, the DUP and the TUV, both of whom never signed up to it in the first place.



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  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 26,890 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    Well equally I don't think the upcoming Labour government will be looking for further divergences from the EU (if anything the opposite) so the protocol related issues should be less relevant.

    I don't particularly disagree that life would probably be easier for Britain without NI but the same could be said about the original backstop arrangement and we all saw how vociferously that was rejected. Whatever attachment there is to NI may be pure symbolism, but symbolism is important in politics.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,848 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Polls are showing that symbolism doesn’t cut much mustard with the British public.



  • Registered Users Posts: 26,511 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    The original backstop concept applied to the whole of the UK, and would have prevented a hard Brexit; that's why it was vociferously rejected. It would not have separated NI from GB.

    It was replaced by the NI Protocol which applied to NI only and therefore allowed a much harder Brexit in GB. It was a UK proposal, reflecting the fact that the Tory right gave a higher priority to hard Brexit than they did to protecting NI's place in the union. The Tory right are supposed to be the union's friends in GB; if your friends in GB will do that to you, you can imagine what everyone else would cheerfully do to you.

    (This is the reason, incidentally, for the unionists' higher-than-usual levels of neuralgia. They are gripped by existential terror.)

    The last time Ireland actually mattered in British politics — meaning, the last time policy with respect to Ireland influenced more than a tiny number of votes in any election in GB — was in the years leading up to the Home Rule Bill of 1914. Unionists realised that their only hope for getting themselves excluded from Irish home rule was to build up support for their cause in Great Britain, and they put a lot of effort into this, with considerable success. Carson spent much of his time campaigning and holding mass rallies in England, and this got a lot of traction.

    It's unthinkable that this would happen today or that, if tried, it would succeed in energising people in England in the way it did a hundred years ago. Carson's argument in England a hundred years ago was nakedly sectarian; it's not right to subject loyal Protestants to a Catholic-majority government. There's no similar argument that could be run today,



  • Posts: 13,688 Davian Yummy Bather


    Are we still discussing this?

    Britain and EU would both subsidise any intermediate change.

    Brexit showed the average Brit don't give a bollock about Northern Ireland. They were disgusted to hear Westminster were keeping them afloat to the tune of 10 billion per annum.

    I don't want any **** border poll until details are agreed. The last thing we need is another Brexit where nobody knew what they were actually voting for, hence why Dail Eireann needs to get cracking.

    A United Irish would flourish.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,623 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    You say “Just the other day, the PSNI Chief Constable issued an apology to the 14 hooded men who were tortured in 1971 by the British army, and they have been accepted as being tortured by the UK Supreme Court. “

    Just to provide a little context.

    One of the so-called 'innocent' hooded men Joe Clarke days after getting a hand delivered apology from the Chief Constable Simon Byrne to his hospital bed for his time getting interviewed by the RUC on IRA activities regarding bombings and murder gets an official IRA funeral days later..! Just consider what he done to deserve that?

    It should be noted the European Court of Human Rights, which some posters seem to hold in high esteem, ruled that the treatment was not torture.

    I am absolutely not defending some of the interviews tactics, but I would be more interested in an apology from sf about the sectarian atrocities of south Armagh brigade rather than a commemoration. Or if the British gov are in the mood for apologising, how about they apologise to the innocent people of ni for not taking out more Ira & Uvf killers earlier



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  • Registered Users Posts: 68,848 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    The IRA apologised for the death of innocents in the conflict in 2002, 4 years after the conflict ended downcow. It was welcomed by SF and your government.


    In contrast the families of Bloody Sunday had to fight tooth and nail (after being victimised and their relatives blamed)for 40 years for an apology, even though it was well known what happened these men they waited until one was on his death bed for a half apology.

    The state should be above paramilitaries and held to higher account - in the sphere of apologies they are far far behind. As an example of how political parties behave, the DUP are STILL in denial about their paramilitary connections and are attempting to involve active paramilitaries as stakeholders.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,704 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    I think that is an appalling sight.

    Clearly, those in white shirts and black ties are only missing the black berries and face masks that the IRA volunteers wore at similar funerals before the GFA. Note that they are mimicking a guard of honour.

    It goes to show, they haven't gone away. Was this organised by the army council?

    Why do they do this?

    It can do nothing to bring about reconciliation.

    [By the way, it does not show that the person in the coffin was in fact a member of the IRA. Just that the IRA/SF want to have a large funeral to emphasise the apology of the Chief Constable of the PNSI for the illegal behaviour of the UK state forces.]



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 26,890 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    Sorry, indeed you are correct and I should have referred to the NI-only arrangement. I am aware it was a UK proposal, but one that ultimately ended up contributing significantly to toppling the Prime Minister. Of course, UK politics being utterly insane, the subsequent PM more or less agreed to it anyway and just pretended he didn't.

    The point I am trying to make is that no matter how sound the logic that removing NI from the UK would actually improve things for GB and no matter how much GB ignores NI 99% of the time, I do not think in the near term anyone would be able to sell "losing" NI as a net positive.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,612 ✭✭✭Fionn1952


    Get a few big red buses out and I can think of a way!



  • Registered Users Posts: 27,911 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    It does clearly show that there is someone or some group in the background organising this stuff. The PSNI must be right about the continued existence of the Army Council.

    SF and the IRA are not interested in reconciliation, they are not interested in a new island, they are just focussed on revenge and retribution. Nothing nice about them at all.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,623 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    “The IRA apologised for the death of innocents in the conflict in 2002, 4 years after the conflict ended downcow”

    And maybe you will tell me who the innocents were? This is just a smokescreen. They went on killing innocents like Paul Quinn, and their poster boy MP patted the guys on the back just last weekend that killed paul.

    if the statement has any credibility then why will does our local UKSF MP refuse to condemn the killing of my friends father who was entirely innocent and why does he refuse to debate with him.

    SF are the people who keep telling us that victims are all the same and deserve the same. Yet their statement says something quite different.

    so don’t duck and dive, and just tell us, who do they include in their innocent tag?



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,848 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    TBH I can't do that. I am not the IRA. I merely pointed you to an official apology.

    The IRA as an organisation were not involved in the killing of Paul Quinn.

    Would the BA be held responsible for a murder if a former member of it carried it out? That would be ridiculous.

    Finucane has addressed what he was doing at the South Armagh event and it wasn't celebrating killing of innocent people.



  • Registered Users Posts: 27,911 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    There was no apology worthy of the name.

    You are also lying when you say that the IRA as an organisation were not involved in the killing of Paul Quinn. If it walks like a duck, swims like a duck and quacks like a duck, it is a duck to all intents and purposes.

    Finucane's mealy mouthed explanation doesn't hold water, he was celebrating the killers of innocent people.

    You really have no idea of how appalling and hurtful the defence of these things is.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,623 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    so there is the problem for everyone to see, illuminated by Francie.

    he says “TBH I can't do that. I am not the IRA. I merely pointed you to an official apology.” So he doesn’t know who the IRA were/were not apologising for murdering?

    He says “Finucane has addressed what he was doing at the South Armagh event and it wasn't celebrating killing of innocent people.” But francie says he doesn’t know who they regard as innocent people so he doesn’t know who’s deaths he was celebrating?

    …and he says the IRA didn’t kill Paul Quinn. This is as fanciful as Gerry Adam’s wasn’t in the IRA. There has been documentaries etc outlining the event in great detail. I think you know francie that one of our MPs sanctioned it - the only doubt is whether he sanctioned murder or just life-changing injuries.

    I hope the good people of the south are under no illusions who SF are (in the north, I can’t comment on the south).

    Its interesting that mary Lou says (afaik) that she won’t attend celebrations of Ira if she is pm. Would that be extended to ni in a Ui? The troops won’t be happy!



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,848 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Ok, needs clarification.

    I accept the IRA apology.

    While I cannot itemise who they mean as innocents, I assume they mean non combatants/people not inolved in the conflict.

    I can only come to an opinion on events like the Paul Quinn killing based on the verdict of the official monitors - who say the IRA as an organisation was not involved and did not order or sanction the killing. The killing had more to do with criminal activity in the area.

    That is their concensus, not mine.

    Finucane clearly said at the commemoration that 'there was nothing to celebrate'. I welcome that statement.

    I also welcome MLMD's statement that she won't attend these commemorations as Taoiseach, that is a huge gesture IMO. Of course you cannot resist the snide comment when compromise is offered. We keep hearing this snideness when the hand is offered by Republicans, but as yet, I have not seen any internal division in SF (or among the 'troops' as you put it) when they make concilatory gestures like MoN did recently re: the monarchy.

    You may need to review how you recieve concilatory gestures.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 27,911 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    I think you are one of the very few people on this earth, not a member of the PIRA, who accepted their apology. Most regarded it as worthless.

    Looking for internal division in SF? Has there ever been internal division in SF that didn't result in either a split or kneecappings or both?



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,623 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    "While I cannot itemise who they mean as innocents, I assume they mean non combatants/people not inolved in the conflict." Francie

    So what does that mean Francie? Why did they talk in riddles that even you, as a republican and a riddle writer, has not the first clue what they mean?

    So since you are assuming; would you assume they are sorry for making a human bomb out of patsy Gillespie or are they not sorry for that because he cooked meals for soldiers?

    Are they sorry for taking Jean McConville away and murdering her or are they not sorry because she was a protestant and put a young dying soldiers head on a towel?

    "The couple, who lived in a small flat, had 10 children before her husband died. Less than a year later the IRA accused her of passing information to the army and she was abducted by a large gang of male and female IRA members. "Four girls dragged her from the bathroom at gunpoint," her daughter, Helen McKendry, recalled. "The twins, who were only six at the time, were clinging to her, screaming to the women to let her go but they took her anyway. The children were terrified and in hysterics. She was never seen alive again. An additional gratuitous cruelty was that the IRA never admitted they murdered her: in fact, stories were circulated locally that she had deserted her family - she had probably, it was said, run away with a soldier."

    Are they sorry for orphaning my friend, since they made a statement shortly after that it was a mistaken identity - and yet the MP won't condemn it!



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,268 ✭✭✭jh79


    Just on MLMD not attending certain events if she were to become Taoiseach. Will that lead to friction between the die hard Republicans and the newer more detached members such as OBrion and MLMD?




  • Registered Users Posts: 68,848 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    I assume they mean what I said.

    The IRA issued warnings to those assisting the British Army, so, IMO as they identified McConville as a spy, and Gillespie as a collaborator they did not see them as innocent.

    That is the harsh facts here.

    I found what all the players did abhorent and never supported any of it. I do welcome though, apologies and concilatory gestures as peace building.



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,848 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    We have had a similar debate about what President Higgins personally believes and what he does in his position as president.

    I don't think she would have any right to use the office of Taoiseach to attend commemorations . I think she is free to believe what she wants though.

    I understand her having personal views is not acceptable to those who require complete capitulation and abject apology from one side only.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,268 ✭✭✭jh79


    Question was more do you believe this could cause some internal friction within SF or will the majority accept it wouldn't be appropriate for her to attend ?



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,848 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    No idea jh79.

    SF have come a long long way and have compromised, apologised and made conciliatory gestures. I would imagine some might have issue but would that not be common to all parties?



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,623 ✭✭✭✭downcow


    Not many left.

    when you consider the entirety of the Protestant community looked out for the security forces, provided information on our Ira neighbours and give them sweets or buns or whatever happened to be in our car when they stopped us. That sounds like a greater crime than Patsy serving them food to earn a living. So seems the interpretation of what you are saying is that they apologise for killing any Catholics that didn’t support or interact with the Brits. Would that be a fair interpretation of what you are saying?



  • Registered Users Posts: 68,848 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    I am just stating facts here downcow.

    And the fact is, in a conflict/war situation, people who collaborated with the BA were targets. That is horrendous but a fact.

    People who played GAA, were thought to be sympathisers with the IRA and just because they were Catholics were also killed during the conflict/war. That is also horrendous and a fact, and some of it was orchestrated by your community's political leaders via hate speech and the setting up of paramilitary organisations. Their killers are celebrated and used to taunt Nationalists to this day. The record is out there on google. Not addressed or apologised for by any of those political parties either. Instead, they want them to be stakeholders without signing up to the GFA or apology of any kind and while they are still active.

    I'm sorry, there is no holier than thou ground for your community and political representation to stand on here. What you need to do actually is catch up.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,612 ✭✭✭Fionn1952


    Point of correction, while Jean McConville was born to a Protestant family, she converted to Catholicism after marriage and moved to Divis Flats because of threats by Loyalists.

    Also, I'm not sure what your source is, but the provos acknowledged their responsibility for her death almost 25 years ago in '99.



This discussion has been closed.
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